If more than one tipster naps a particular runner in a race does that mean you should back it or lay it?
This is the question on my mind this morning, having just read an article which proposes that we look for consensus naps to back. IE when two tipsters make the same selection there best win bet of the day we should bet it to win.
There was a time when I would have considered this a good strategy, but that was before I had a good understanding of value and market forces.
The answer to the question is not straightforward, which unfortunately is often the case!
If The Sun newspaper naps a selection you can be sure that there will be a lot of people betting that horse. If it is also napped by the Racing Post then a whole lot more people will be considering it as a bet also. What this means is that the horse will be overbet and market forces will cause the price to shorten.
It’s just simple supply and demand if everybody wants to buy something the price goes up. Like the housing market when huge mortgages are easy to come by, the price of a house goes up because for every house there is competition to buy it. Now we have a credit squeeze on there are not so many buyers so the seller has to reduce their price in order to make the sale.
In betting to win, the equivalent of the price going up is that the prices shorten EG your 2/1 shot is suddenly only available at 6/4. If it has a one in three chance then it is now bad value and is a bad bet, whether it wins or loses, because over the long term at level stakes you will lose if you back horses with a one in three chance at odds of less than 2/1. Fact.
Win @ 6/4 = +1.5
Lose @6/4 = -1
Lose @6/4 = -1
Grand Total = – 0.5
So to get back to the opening question the answer is that if you have access to a couple of unknown but good tipsters and they both nap a selection and the rest of the world doesn’t, then it is likely that you are onto a value bet.
On the other hand if two well known and popular tipsters nap the same selection, then you might want to look closer at the selection with a view to laying it to lose, it is unlikley that the selection will start at a value price.
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