I hear from a lot of people who lay big outsiders in the Betfair horse racing markets at ridiculous prices. They tell me how they never win and that it’s easy money. Generally these gamblers think that the outcome is so unlikely that they are prepared to risk a large proportion of their betting bank on each bet.
After the initial bullishness usually one of two things happen.
They either disappear to never be heard from again or the ones that are more committed come back to tell me how they learned their lesson.
The lesson is that if you are not striking a value bet you will lose in the long run and if you are laying at 100.0 on a 34.0 chance then sooner or later you will lay a winner and at those prices the unprepared will lose their bank.
I read a little factoid the other day which I thought illustrated this well.
Back in 1962 a guy called into the head quarters of William Hill and asked for odds on a human being walking on the surface of the moon before 1970.
He was quoted 1,000/1 and placed a £10 bet which was more than a weeks wages. The rest as they say is history.
The lesson is that 1,000/1 shots can win and that you should always have the value on your side and have a bank that will cope with a losing bet even when you think its impossible to lose.
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