Profitable Angles For Laying Favourites
Betting exchanges provide a fantastic medium for the modern bettor to act out numerous strategies for laying horses. This ultimately means choice, and most importantly the facility to ask for a price instead of just taking what’s on offer. For example, if you feel a 5/4 shot should be more like 2/1 and you can back up that assumption with a little form reading then you have found yourself a value lay. Spotting false favourites on a regular basis leads to profits.
The inherent problem with laying horses is losing bets can take considerable chunks of your betting bank. Everyone knows outsiders win on a daily basis; if you’re unlucky enough to lay one, or worse, two of these types then any profits you have built up over the week can be decimated instantly. Even when laying at just £10 stakes things can get out of hand pretty quickly. Just two unsuccessful bets at 5/1 can leave your betting bank £100 lighter.
Whether you are new or a more seasoned layer it’s definitely worth bearing in mind the pitfalls of laying outsiders. So in the beginning for your own sanity keep stakes to an absolute minimum, that way not only will you be able afford the odd loser here and there, but also get an emotional feel of what its like to lose more than your initial stake money. You can then make some informed decisions on whether or not laying is for you.
Contrary to popular belief some punters simply aren’t suited to this kind of betting at all, and it really is a case of finding something that suits your own comfort zone. Just because a system that lays outsiders is profitable that doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be emotionally suited to it. There maybe losing runs which test your nerves and betting bank to the point where the thought of placing the next bet is one of utter fear.
Everyone has different opinions about which horses make the best lays. Unfortunately there is no “absolute” right, or wrong way. My personal preference is one which doesn’t involve too much risk to my betting bank. Therefore a good place to start is to identify favourites trading at odds lower than they should be, if these animals have identifiable chinks in their form, even better.
If you don’t like taking too many risks then most commercial systems won’t suit your needs, all too often the odds they advise laying at are too risky. Therefore formulating a decent laying strategy based around sound racing and value principles is probably the way to go.
If you are prepared to wait for the right opportunities to come along you’ll make some decent profits, and be betting without fear of losing too much if the odd one goes in. In my opinion emotional stability when lay betting is absolutely essential for long-term success.
Six tips for low risk Laying
In order to assess a horse’s realistic chances of winning in relationship to the odds being offered, it’s always best to take a look at the main reasons why the horse is favourite in the first place. Then and only then can you make an informed and objective assessment of whether or not its favourites status is justified. I.e. is it a…
• Strong favourite ( Justified by confirmed recent form factors)
• Mediocre favourite (Possibly at the front of the market because of over betting based around media hype/tips)
• False favourite (Possibly at the front of the market because of lack of serious opposition, basically the best of a bad bunch)
The following six points will help you make a realistic assessment of most favourites actual chances of winning. Obviously there are other supporting factors which can be analyzed as well, but to keep things simple lets look at main areas to focus on when trying to uncover a false favourite.
1: Identify horses trading at odds no greater than 3.3; risk verses reward principles apply here. Just by simply limiting your selections to this price range or below will mean you can never lose more than 2.3 x your initial stake.
2: Identify competitive races where other horses are also being backed. This will generally be reflected in the RPOST betting forecast, and within the betting market on Betfair.
3: Briefly profile each horse and give weight to factors such as:
• Unproven, or previously failed on the going
• Unproved, or previously failed at the distance
• Stepping up in class for the first time
• Stepping up into a handicap for the first time, facing proven handicap performers
• First time out, facing once raced maiden horses (Debutants rarely win)
• First time over fences, facing proven chasers
• First time on the A.W.
• Trainer has a poor record at the course, or with the type of horse under scrutiny.
• Always make sure there is some credible opposition to your selection
4: What does the horses overall form look like in comparison to it main rivals, is it consistent or not. Mediocre horse rarely win, racing conditions generally have to be just right for lower class animals to get up.
5: Make your assessment based on the facts presented to you in the Racing Post; ignore any kind of media speculation. Take those opinions on board, but bear in mind they are often mere speculation, which may, or may not add to over betting on a horse. This will often work in your favor – If the masses are blindly lumping on a favourite that you can clearly see has a limited chance, the odds will be lower than they realistically should be, providing you with a value lay.
6: What effect will non runners have on the make up of the race? If you’re selections main rivals are declared non runners it’s best to leave that race alone.
Just following these six simple steps will mean you are miles ahead of the majority of punters on Betfair. With planning and patience it is possible to make low risk profits laying false favourites.
Heres to your success
Jonathan Burgess
http://www.false-favourites.co.uk
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