The Racing Post did some extensive research on the UK`s betting markets. This research uncovered that Betfair at SP time was confirmed to be extremely reliable. For example Horses trading at 2.00 actually won close to 50% of races. Conversely outsiders won roughly what their individual percentage chance implied.
Therefore over time, betting patterns balance out. Laying bigger priced outsiders is fools gold. Long deceptive winning runs are usually wiped out by just a handful of losers at the wrong odds.
When weighing up a lay bet. Always consider the worse case scenario, i.e. what you are actually risking to win a single stake unit, less commission? If your answer is 4 or more times your stake, then you really aren’t obtaining value on that bet.
Grade your bets and consider how many times you would have to be successful to compensate for the odd losing lay.
In my opinion shorter priced lays, therefore offer much more value. This also explains why bookies main source of revenue comes from laying 1st and 2nd favourites. Although these horses win more often, the liabilities are so much less than laying outsiders.
Pro Tip 1: Put in some effort
Pro Tip 2: Be realistic
Pro Tip 3: Be prepared to learn
Pro Tip 4: Don’t bet for the sake of it
Pro Tip 5: Be patient
Pro Tip 6: Overconfidence
Pro Tip 7: Always bet within your comfort zone
Pro Tip 8: Take a break
Pro Tip 9: Make a decision
Pro Tip 11: Stay detached from the money
Pro Tip 12: Stick to the plan