Brought to you courtesy of Jon Burgess – Race Specialist
Handicap races – are contested by exposed older horses which generally fit one of the following characteristics:
• Appear to confirm ability. Form history clearly shows what these horses have achieved in the past, but they have now reached a handicap mark which is static and these types probably need to have there official rating lowered to become competitive again.
• Appear to be progressing in ability. Usually less exposed types entering into the handicap arena which have the scope to defy weight and revised handicap marks.
• Appear to be declining in ability - due to stepping up through the class system. If a horses official rating is too high it will struggle to win a competitive handicap. Often those considered up against it are referred to in the racing media as being on an unfavourable mark. These types often need to be dropped in class to win again.
Basically handicaps are about pitching horses against each other that have similar ability. Therefore these races are usually much more competitive than non-handicaps and it’s not uncommon for the top four or five horses to each have an equal chance of winning. The weight each horse carries can make race analysis tricky, but the actual affect that weight has on a horse’s performance is very often over exaggerated by the racing media and is rarely an issue.
When assessing handicaps it’s a good idea to weigh up how each horse has performed off various ratings. Look to see if any of the top rated horses have won off a similar rating to their current one, or do they need to be dropped back in the ratings to a more realistic level to get competitive again. To do this look at each horses RPR (racing post rating) in it’s form history. See if you can indentify which horses look to be up against it in rating terms. Certain horses may have reached a level at which they are non effective at, and will only return to winning ways after re assessment. For example imagine a horses official rating increasing because it’s been winning. When this happens these animals have to step up in class as well, this is when they can be vulnerable. It’s not the extra weight that beats the horse, it’s the fact that it’s competing against better class animals, if you see what I mean.
Obviously in handicaps the top weights win more races. From a laying perspective its better to consider taking horses on competing in races where the rating difference between the top four or five horses is very close, e.g. only a few pounds between them.
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