Brought to you by Jonathan Burgess of Race Specialist
Everyone has different opinions about which horses make the best lays. Unfortunately there is no “absolute” right, or wrong way. My personal preference is one which doesn’t involve too much risk to my betting bank. Therefore a good place to start is to identify favourites trading at odds lower than they should be, if these animals have identifiable chinks in their form, even better.
If you don’t like taking too many risks then most commercial systems won’t suit your needs, as we have already discussed, far too often the odds they advise laying at are very risky. For that reason, formulating a decent laying strategy based around sound racing and value principles is the best way to go.
If you are prepared to wait for the right opportunities to come along you’ll make some decent profits, and be betting without fear of losing too much if the odd one goes in. In my opinion emotional stability when lay betting is absolutely essential for long-term success.
The following key elements need to be considered very carefully when laying horses.
Resources
Use every resource available to you, but always keep an open mind as things change in racing on a daily basis. Any form information that is instantly recognizable in the racing media often won’t be profitable, as the punting masses will also see it. Any value is likely to be destroyed by over betting. Instant positives/negatives about a horse will cause it to steam or drift very rapidly. The masses only look for the obvious when betting on horses. They rarely take into consideration any information that needs a closer inspection. Ultimately this is where your advantage lies – make sure you use it!
Sentiment
There is no room for sentiment in betting – just because a system produced a profit in the past there is no guarantee that it will do so in the future. Don’t hesitate to discard a system or method that is losing cash regularly.
Planning
Successful punters make long term plans, but they know from past experience that even the best laid plans can fail for a number of reasons, especially when betting on horses; therefore it’s always wise to have a contingency plan. Take a long term view with your betting but don’t make false assumptions that you have the betting game completely sorted for the near future. Monitor performance making necessary adjustments as and when they arise. A decent sized betting bank combined with a simple low risk staking plan will guide you through any troubled water that lies ahead.
The dynamics of long-term investment aren’t as you would expect, and even bookmakers lose money. You have to have a “Positive Expectancy” which means although you may lose sometimes, on the whole, following a few proven systems in a portfolio, you should expect your profits to outweigh your losses over a season.
Learn to think with a “Positive Expectancy” and with a good plan there is no reason why you won’t be profitable in the long-term. It is important to keep your expectations realistic, focused and attainable.
Lay systems that win big lose BIG!
It’s much better to take a more “emotionally balanced approach”. Use methods that don’t leave your betting bank exposed to too much risk. Making one or two points every other day might not be very exciting, but is better than winning 20 points one day and losing 40 within the week. As a fellow punter and friend of mine always says “don’t leave your lily white ass hanging out”. Those who do get well and truly shafted. When laying always be aware of how much liability you’re exposed to.
Risk verses reward principles really do apply. Unfortunately many punters lose their betting bank because they are greedy and don’t understand the overall dynamics of good money management. Punters without proper money management in place tend to vary their stakes, ramping them up the moment they get a few winners (or, even worse, after a few losing lays).
Remember bookies lay favourites for a living. Although these animals win more often, the damage is far less than when laying outsiders. Ultimately losses are so much easier to deal with and there are no wild swings in your P&L.
There Are No Certainties In Betting – Part 1
There Are No Certainties In Betting – Part 3
There Are No Certainties In Betting – Part 4
