Will Trends unravel Champions day puzzle?
This Saturday sees the top class meeting from Newmarket where no less than five Group races are being staged as well as the second leg of the autumn double the extremely tricky Cesarewitch Handicap. Given that over 20+ runners are due to compete for the Totesport Heritage race we thought we would ask our trends author Gavin Priestley to help us fathom out the likely contenders…….
The Cesarewitch long distance handicap has seen a variety of winners over the years from hurdlers to staying flat handicappers to Pattern horses. A few things to note are that 3yo’s have tended to struggle in the race, penalty carriers are best avoided and, more bizarrely, the draw has played a major outcome in the result. Probably the title of best winner of recent years goes to Sergeant Cecil who won this in 2005 before embarking on a successful Cup race campaign over the following few seasons.
You can see the full breakdown of all of the significant trends here, but Gavin has used these to narrow down his suggestions to the following summary:-
Applying the Trends
There are no well handicapped 3yo’s lurking in this years field so I’m going to look for a typical Cesarewitch winner of late i.e. a horse that is trained by a jumping stable, is rated 83-98 and is drawn high. That leaves us looking at La Vecchia Scuola, Swinging Hawk, Universal Truth, Hawk Mountain and Kayf Aramis.
La Vecchia Scuola has had more runs this season than is normal and is therefore overlooked. Kayf Aramis doesn’t have a recent top 4 finish to his name. Swinging Hawk has never run in a Class 2 or higher race which leaves us with two.
The Likeliest Trends Winners
UNIVERSAL TRUTH currently a general 8/1 shot
&
HAWK MOUNTAIN current best price 25/1 with Boylesport
There are a number of bookmakers that are paying out on 5 places so please shop around come race day to get the best combination of value. It pays to be with the winning team here at Betting School.
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