First of all I would like to wish all Betting School readers a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

We have been doing a little test with the Grey Horse Bot over the last few months on Greyhounds.

So I thought if I give you the settings, then you can have a look and decide if you want to give it a try.

For this system the Grey Horse Bot is in Auto mode and betting on Greyhounds.

These are our settings regarding the rest of the options.

This article is a Betting School Insiders Club members only article, members can read on by clicking here.
To join the Betting School Insiders Club, click here.

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Brought to you courtesy of Jonathan Burgess – Race Specialist.

I would be wary of laying a horse which was clearly top rated, compared to other horses in a race. Loosely factor weight into your calculations, but don’t over exaggerate it. Race horses can weigh 1000lbs + and are very physically powerful. They can defy a few lead weights placed in the saddle quite easily. Think along the lines of working horses in history – pulling, barges, carts, ploughs etc, to put it in perspective.

Three positive steps to a happier life

1: Be thankful for what you already have. Acknowledge the importance of good health and a supportive family.

2: Laugh, smile and be more compassionate towards everyone. Laughter is medically proven to release endorphins in the human brain. Laughter brings the focus away from anger, guilt, stress and negative emotions in a more beneficial way than other mere distractions. Read jokes online. You’ll be surprised how a good laugh can set you up for the day!

3: Be more open minded. Use your imagination and intuition to find innovative answers simply by seeing things from a different perspective.

Wishing you every success

Jonathan Burgess

http://www.race-specialist.com
http://www.false-favourites.co.uk

New Years Resolutions – Part 1
New Years Resolutions – Part 2
New Years Resolutions – Part 3

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Brought to you courtesy of Jon Burgess – Race Specialist

Handicap races – are contested by exposed older horses which generally fit one of the following characteristics:

• Appear to confirm ability. Form history clearly shows what these horses have achieved in the past, but they have now reached a handicap mark which is static and these types probably need to have there official rating lowered to become competitive again.

• Appear to be progressing in ability. Usually less exposed types entering into the handicap arena which have the scope to defy weight and revised handicap marks.

• Appear to be declining in ability - due to stepping up through the class system. If a horses official rating is too high it will struggle to win a competitive handicap. Often those considered up against it are referred to in the racing media as being on an unfavourable mark. These types often need to be dropped in class to win again.

Basically handicaps are about pitching horses against each other that have similar ability. Therefore these races are usually much more competitive than non-handicaps and it’s not uncommon for the top four or five horses to each have an equal chance of winning. The weight each horse carries can make race analysis tricky, but the actual affect that weight has on a horse’s performance is very often over exaggerated by the racing media and is rarely an issue.

When assessing handicaps it’s a good idea to weigh up how each horse has performed off various ratings. Look to see if any of the top rated horses have won off a similar rating to their current one, or do they need to be dropped back in the ratings to a more realistic level to get competitive again. To do this look at each horses RPR (racing post rating) in it’s form history. See if you can indentify which horses look to be up against it in rating terms. Certain horses may have reached a level at which they are non effective at, and will only return to winning ways after re assessment. For example imagine a horses official rating increasing because it’s been winning. When this happens these animals have to step up in class as well, this is when they can be vulnerable. It’s not the extra weight that beats the horse, it’s the fact that it’s competing against better class animals, if you see what I mean.

Obviously in handicaps the top weights win more races. From a laying perspective its better to consider taking horses on competing in races where the rating difference between the top four or five horses is very close, e.g. only a few pounds between them.

New Years Resolutions – Part 1
New Years Resolutions – Part 2
New Years Resolutions – Part 4

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January was a month decimated by the weather and so whilst we had a list of trainers to follow there wasn’t much jump racing to follow! Last year February lost a number of fixtures to the elements, but nevertheless there would appear to be some names to latch on to, and a few interesting names to avoid.

For the benefit of new readers I’ll just spend a few lines restating the methodology behind my monthly trainer trends. In order to produce meaningful results I’ve only considered the results from the 2008 and 2009 jump race seasons. Furthermore, I’ve excluded those trainers that had fewer than four winners in the month in question, and had fewer than 30 runners.

In Table 1 I’ve presented my results. The Table is ordered by the rate of return (Profit/Loss %).

This article is a Betting School Insiders Club member only article, members can read on by clicking here.
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Trainers are creatures of habit and certain trainers aim to bring their runners to peak form at different times of the year. Each month I’ll be highlighting trainers who have performed well in certain spheres for the forthcoming month.

Results date back to 1997 unless otherwise stated.
LSP = Level Stakes Profit LTO= Last time out

===============================================================

Venetia Williams
Runners in Handicap Hurdles (excluding Novice Handicaps)
Priced 12/1 or less

Only one of the runners priced bigger than 12/1 won, so it seems prudent to concentrate on the runners priced 12/1 or less.

Following the above runners proved profitable in seven of the past eight seasons.

The market was a good guide with six of the 11 runners going off at less than 2/1 winning. All but three of the winners came from the first two in the market and these well supported runners won 18 of their 46 races for a £21.10 profit.

This article is a Betting School Insiders Club members only article, members can read on by clicking here.
To join the Betting School Insiders Club, click here.

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Brought to you courtesy of Jon Burgess – Race Specialist

Your ability to assess the difference between some one who wants to add to your prosperity and someone who wants to separate you from it is probably the most vital skill you can learn.

Better to take notice of reputable, experienced professional punters and organisations such as:

Nick Mordin – (Betting For a living) legendary book about betting on horses

Terry Burke – (DIY punting) very inspiring book containing superb advice about betting on horses.

This publication – Betting School Insiders Report

Handicaps versus non handicaps (A different approach)

Handicaps and non handicaps should be considered as very different. For that reason different rules apply when assessing these two separate entities. To clarify the point let’s take a look at the main differences and try to compare the two objectively…

Non handicap races – are contested by young unexposed horses which are likely to be improving with each race. The win percentages for favourites are generally high, especially in National Hunt races such as, novice hurdles and novice chases. The quality and breeding of the horses on the whole is very good. Assessing races can be easier because the form of each runner is by and large straight forward. The betting forecast is often headed by two or three horses taking up to 80% of the book. And over the years this has proven to be an accurate reflection of each horse chances, with strong favourites winning daily at short odds.

New Years Resolutions – Part 1
New Years Resolutions – Part 3
New Years Resolutions – Part 4

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Brought to you courtesy of Jonathan Burgess – Race Specialist

Not only is it the start of the New Year, but also the beginning of a new decade. As you all know it’s the time of year we all start to reflect on the previous year’s events. And also look at areas of our lives where changes could be made to improve our wellbeing and way of life. Basically it’s a time for New Year’s resolutions.

Unfortunately far too many people set themselves unrealistic challenges which have little hope of succeeding. Everything from giving up smoking to getting a better paid job is on most lists.

Extensive research into human behavioural patterns has proven that in order for an individual to change i.e. from negative set of behavioural patterns (often health damaging) to much more beneficial set of habits, requires a lot more effort than merely vocalizing the fact. Acknowledgement is the first key step.

But in order to make positive changes happen, you need to follow a clear plan. And implement daily steps to turn that plan into a reality. Realistic, subtle daily changes are far more likely to succeed because they can be incorporated easily into your lifestyle. Conversely radically trying to change your life over night is destined to fail.

At this point you may be wondering what any of this has to do with betting. Well at a subconscious level it is really important to recognise that we need to adapt and evolve as individuals in an ever changing world.

With so much information available about betting online it is becoming more difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff. Basically the world and his mother are claiming to be experts on betting, and with so many sources serving up a plethora about the same subject, punters interested in finding a betting edge have to very careful. At a subconscious level we all take on board opinions and information that are false and this can have an impact on how we act.

In my opinion the best way to source and compile information about any subject is to construct a portfolio of books and articles relating to each sub category of that subject, in this case betting on horses. More importantly make sure you do due diligence on the source of the info. It really is wise to ignore BS internet marketers in any field. The majority are only interested in getting their hands your cash and nothing else. Spending half an hour online confirms that the racing niche is absolutely saturated with false promises and of claims of instant wealth.

New Years Resolutions – Part 2
New Years Resolutions – Part 3
New Years Resolutions – Part 4

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Brought to you courtesy of Michael Wilding of Puntology.com

Whenever you look at a race it is almost always about numbers. There are people who paddock watch, and this information is very valuable if you have a strong knowledge of horses. The majority of us do not do this and use data to help us determine which horse we think will win the race. This data is almost always in the form of a number. Speed figures, official ratings, weight carried, finishing positions are a few examples of numbers that we use when assessing a horse race.

Most of the numbers that are used in handicapping are rating an aspect of the horse’s performance. Usually the higher the number the better the performance but sometimes the lower the number the better the performance is. It is common for people to look for horses that are good performers in certain areas that they have discovered have value and can make a profit.

What we must not forget in this process is that the numbers are just that. Numbers!

However accurate a number is, it is never going to be 100% correct. If they were then we would always select the winning horse. This means that we can look for different ways of analysing the numbers in order to find a profit. One such method is to use horse and race shapes.

Let us imagine that you have ten factors for every horse in a race and between all of these factors every aspect of the horse’s performance is rated. Every single horse in each race is going to have a different set of numbers. It is very unlikely that any horse in a race is going to have exactly the same number for each factor. In fact it is very unlikely that any horse will have exactly the same number as another horse over multiple years of racing.

If we were to take each rating number and plot them on a graph we would get a bendy line going higher when the horse has a higher rating and lower when it has a lower rating. Effectively this is the shape that the horse’s factors are taking. It is flat and simple but it allows us to visualise the numbers.

When you repeat this process for every horse in the race you will find that different horses are better in different areas and you can see at a glance which horse is better at what. In its simplest form this is a horse shape. It shows the ability of the horse before the race and we are representing it visually in a graph.

Let’s take this one step further. Every race is going to be made up of different horses with different shapes. Each race also has its own conditions which can be entry conditions, going condition, distance and all the factors that are race specific. All of this information combined gives us the shape of the race. We could of course plot this on a graph as well but we may have a lot of items to put on.

Not every horse is going to be suited to every type of race. I am sure you have heard many people say that it is important to find a horse that likes the conditions. An all weather sprinter is unlikely to win if he was put into a National Hunt race.

The conditions won’t suit him. With this knowledge it is then logical to assume that certain horse shapes are going to perform better when they are taking part in race of particular shapes. Surely this means that we don’t need to analyse the figures and look for the horses with the highest ratings but we need to look for patterns in the past where horses of a certain shape seem to win races of a certain shape with more regularity than they should.

The problem is that we don’t have enough data to do this. As we have already discussed a horse is going to have a different shape in every race and it is very unlikely that any two horses are going to have exactly the same shape. This means that effectively we only have one horse per shape and we cannot analyse anything with that! Although the race shapes are not going to be quite so severe as the horse’s, we are likely to have similar problems with them as well. This means is that in order to find out which horses are likely to perform well in which races we need to limit the amount of shapes that we have.

You can do this in many ways but one possible way is to use fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic is about being approximate rather than precise. A speed rating of 65 is specific although it is impossible to know exactly how fast the horse ran with the information available to us. This means that we cannot be specific and there will always be a margin of error. Instead we could choose to say that a horse with a speed rating between 55 and 70 is ‘Good’. If we did the same for a number of ratings we would get a list for each horse that may look like:

Speed – Good
Distance – Average
Class – Poor
Weight – Excellent

A quick glance shows us where the horse is going to perform well and where it is going to be let down. If the race is a sprint then the speed is going to be high up on your list as needing a minimum of ‘good’ because without ‘good’ speed a horse cannot win a sprint.
We can use fuzzy logic to help us group our shapes together using the above method to change our ratings. One shape of a horse may simply require that it is ‘excellent’ in speed and ‘good’ at the distance.

Others may require all ten of the factors to be specific. It is important to remember that a horse shape does not have to be made up of good factors. A horse that has ‘bad’ speed and ‘poor’ class is also a valid shape. You are not looking for winning horses but just grouping them into different shapes. Perform the same task with the race shapes and you will find that you now have large quantities of horses that are categorised under the same shape. You can now start to look for patterns of which horses win which races. When you have found some then in the future you are looking for a winning horse shape to be racing in the necessary race shape in order for you to have a bet.

Using fuzzy logic is not the only way of grouping the shapes together. You may choose to use standard deviation. Horses with a distance rating within two standard deviations of the average may be put into one group, three standard deviations into another group etc… You are looking to reduce the number of different shapes that you have so that there is enough data for you to do a meaningful analysis on it. There are almost endless ways of doing this and although these will start you down the right path, I am sure that you will come up with some better ones than I have mentioned here.

Michael Wilding

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Phil Bull

Phil Bull made a massive amount of money from betting, but not only was he a successful gambler he was also a breeder, owner, writer and publisher. It is estimated he made millions during his career.

In 1948 he launched the now internationally renowned organisation Timeform.
Phil had a shrewd attitude towards betting. He looked at the season as a whole and his form study was the same for every race.

How To Make A Book by Phil Bull
Phil Bull: The Biography by Howard Wright

JP McManus

Multi millionaire JP McManus is a renowned gambler and race horse owner.

Originally from Limerick in Ireland, McManus started betting as a schoolboy before working in his family’s plant hire business. He had his own betting stand for a while at Limerick’s greyhound track and it wasn’t long before he moved into owning horses as well as betting and laying. These days JP owns the largest number of National Hunt’s horses.

His first ‘big’ win (rumoured to be around £250,000) was at Cheltenham with a horse called Mister Donovan who was 2nd favourite but ended up winning the race. He also won over £1 million from famous Scottish bookie Freddie Williams in 2006 at Cheltenham.

Although McManus is a high level gambler a large part of his wealth is said to have come from international financing and money dealing which he overseas from his base in Geneva.

Unfortunately in 2008 McManus was diagnosed with cancer although he is now said to be doing well.

Alex Bird

The late Alex Bird made a considerable amount of money from betting after the war.   It is estimated he had an annual turnover of £2 million from gambling.

His interest in gambling began when he was a child.  He learned a lot from his father who was a bookmaker.  However, he decided there was more money to be made from the other side and he become one of Britain’s most well known professional punters of all time.

Bird had several methods for getting one over on the bookies but his most famous was probably his success on betting on photo finishes which in those days took about 5 minutes to develop.  This process earned him a fortune over a period of around 20 years and only stopped when the modernisation of technology meant there was no longer the delay in photo developing.

Alex Bird made his own mind up when it come to betting and rarely listened to anyone – he stuck to his rules and systems.  Even now, almost 20 years after his death, there are current systems available that are based on the practices he used.

His biggest bet was on the well known horse Mill Reef at Gimcrack. The season after this Mill Reef won the Derby, again backed by Bird who had by then backed 7 Derby winners in 8 years.

One of his last bets was on a horse called Final Shot in 1990 when it won the Ayr Gold Cup.

Life and Secrets of a Professional Punter by Alex Bird.

Patrick Veitch

Patrick Veitch is one of Britain’s most successful gamblers who has won over £10 million from betting.

At just 15 years of age this mathematical genius got a place at Cambridge although he never completed his degree, instead he turned to gambling and started his own tipping line.
By his mid 20s Patrick Veitch was already making a lot of money but then came a turning point in his life.  He become the target of a criminal and was forced to live in hiding for many months putting his career on hold and leaving him broke.  However, following this episode he become more successful than ever and was soon making £1 million a year from his strategic betting methods.

Veitch is a strong believer that there is no short cut when it comes to betting – the only way to win is by working hard at it to get it right.

It is very rare to see Patrick at the races.  He uses agents to place his bets and spends most of his time watching and analysing events from his computer.

Enemy Number One by Patrick Veitch (Autobiography)

Harry Findlay

Harry Findlay is a larger than life gambler who has not only made a fortune but also lost a fortune from gambling over the years.

He has always had a love for greyhounds and worked with them for a while after leaving school.  Then aged just 20 Findlay spent 11 months in prison convicted of credit card fraud.

These days bets from his home office which is fully equipped with a number of TV screens and monitors often with different sporting events on at the same time.

As well as being a professional gambler Harry is also an owner.  He jointly owns the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Denman who has more recently won his 2nd Hennessy Gold Cup.  Big Fella Thanks is another of his co-owned horses who he named after his beloved greyhound 1999 Coursing Derby winning Big Fella.

Barney Curley
Barney Curley is a professional gambler and trainer from Northern Ireland who has a reputation for being one of racing’s most colourful characters.

During his childhood he watched his Father run up huge gambling debts but still took up betting himself.

In 1975 he famously organised one of the biggest betting scams of all time – Yellow Sam which made him over £300,000.  He has also appeared in court for illegal lottery after raffling his mansion for £1.5 million.

Giving a Little Back by Barney Curley (Autobiography)

Terry Ramsden

Terry Ramsden originally made his fortune from investment company Glen International in the 80s.  He was worth millions and, amongst other things, owned a string of race horses.

He was also well known for his betting and in 1985 won £2 million on one horse.  The following year he had another big win on Motivator in the 1986 Coral Golden Hurdle Final.

Towards the end of the 80s however, Ramsden’s company collapsed and he started losing massive amounts on bets – he reportedly lost £1 million on one bet alone.  This lead to him going bust at which time he fled to America.   He had won but also lost millions of pounds.

In the late 1990s he was jailed for concealing assets during his bankruptcy – one of which was rumoured to be a £70,000 plus win on the horses.

Despite returning to public life a few years later Ramsden has failed to recreate his earlier success and has since been involved in a number of arguments over money.
Dave Nevison

Dave Nevison became a professional gambler in 1993 after he lost his job working as a currency trader in the City.

He now has an estimated six figure income made up largely from gambling but also from journalism columns he writes.  Dave has also written 2 books and has his own horse racing tipping service.

A Bloody Good Winner: Life As A Professional Gambler by Dave Nevison
No Easy Money: A Gambler’s Diary by Dave Nevison

Alan Potts

At the age of just 14 Alan Potts started betting on horse racing and become a full time professional gambler after being made redundant from his office job in 1991.

He has admitted it took him many years to become a regular winner and despite making an estimated £50,000 a year from betting in the past, he has also suffered losing runs.  Although he is also an owner, author and pundit Potts’ main source of income is from gambling.

In 1999 he jointly formed The Golden Anorak Partnership and this is the banner under which his horses now run.

Alan has written 2 books and also writes articles for the betting exchange – WBX.

Against The Crowd by Alan Potts
The Inside Track by Alan Potts
Clive Holt

Legendary punter Clive Holt was first shown that money could be made from betting by his father who kept a couple of greyhounds during the 1960s.

In the early part of 1975 Clive decided he was ready to quit his job working for the Electricity Board and take up gambling on a full time basis.

He started out using a fairly random approach dictated by his finances and he kept no proper records of bets he had placed.  He soon made the decision to start recording his bets and this was the first of two business methods he implemented in order to make a better profit.  The second was to setup a betting bank.

His first bet was £67 to £30 on Western Jewel who won comfortably and within 6 weeks he had made more money than he was earning in a year working in electricity.  Over the years, although rarely winning more than £1,000 at a time, Holt’s profits from betting provided a lifestyle of luxury cars, exotic holidays and a listed country house with acres of land.

A number of books have been written by Clive Holt who was also the man behind Fineform.

Profitable Winners Always Back Winners
Be A Successful Punter
Fineform Winners Guide
Profitable Betting Strategies

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At the start of November I put up a list of top horses to follow, with a view to backing them each time they raced or to take some fancy ante-post prices for their big race targets. We are now at the half way point in the jump race season and so how does the list look now and what names would we like to add?

The November list has had mixed fortunes and there have been a few surprises in the early part of the season but the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury went our way. I hope you followed my advice on Denman when I said that his then price of 6 to 1 was simply too good to resist. A very nice start to the season! In retrospect the form of that Hennessey win looks very, very good and I would rate it superior to his previous win in that race. He gave more than 20 pounds to stable companion What A Friend and that one has since won the Grade One Lexus Chase impressively. That is amazing form. Denman is clearly one of the best horses we have seen for 40 years. His only problem is that he lives in the same era as Kauto Star.

The King George was another race that was also a good one for us. In November I put up the not terribly original selection of Kauto Star, staking that “He is never going to go off at a big price but he looks a cast iron certainty for the King George again if he gets there in one piece”. And what a certainty he looked! He put up a performance that was the best I’ve seen in that race and I was not surprised that the official handicapper rates him the best chaser since Arkle. I actually thought he wasn’t a bad price before the race and he was a welcome winner in the Taylor household to say the least! However, I also had the forecast and landed the each-way odds with Madison Du Berlais. You may recall that I said that “I wouldn’t back [Madison Du Berlais] on undulating tracks like Cheltenham but he has form up with the best on flatter tracks… He looks like a good each-way bet for the King George and maybe worth including in a forecast with Kauto Star”. It is nice to get it right sometimes!

This article is a Betting School Insiders Club member only article, members can read on by clicking here.
To join the Betting School Insiders Club, click here.

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