Betting School

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 19th August’17)
On Saturday Ripon racecourse stages a cracking 7 race meeting the feature of which is the William Hill Great St Wilfred Handicap which is the perfect type of event to use Nick Hardman’s Big Race Method. If you haven’t seen it yet you can find out more in this interesting video.

In the brand new Insiders Members Report (Issue 148) Nick’s Big Race Analysis contribution includes the key trends and stats for Ripon’s feature event and the following is a snapshot of his findings:-

Great St Wilfred Stakes (6f handicap); Ripon (Sat 3.15pm Ripon)
The Great St Wilfred Stakes is a 6f handicap worth plenty of dosh to the winner (47k) and it therefore attracts a big field each year with many of the top stables represented. Between 2011 and 2015 two trainers dominated proceedings – Richard Fahey and David O’Meara. In fact, O’Meara won 3 out of the 4 renewals between 2011 and 2014 and Richard Fahey won it in 2013 and 2015. Put simply, start by checking out their runners which at the time of writing are:-

Richard Fahey – Growl, Eastern Impact, Right Touch and George Bowen.

David O’Meara – Out Do and Al Qahwa

Richard Fahey’s Don’t Touch was a bit of a trends buster in 2015 as he became the first 3yo to win since Pipalong in 1999. Older horses have tended to dominate recently with 7 of the last 10 winners being aged 5yo to 7yo. It is also a good race for the each way backer with recent winners at odds of 16/1, 20/1, 11/1 and 18/1 since 2010. That said, favourites are 5-22 (23% win rate) since 1997 so do not be put off if you fancy the jolly as you can always back something at a bigger price as well. Only 3 winners have come from outside the top 10 in the betting market in the last 20 renewals and with usually around 20 runners going to post you may want to use that to halve the field. Horses sent off 20/1 or bigger are 0-134 so avoid them for win purposes.

A low to middle draw may be advantageous as all bar 3 of the last 20 winners exited from stall 13 or lower. Last time out winners have a good strike rate (6-53; 12%) and all bar 3 of the last 20 winners posted a top 7 finish last time out. That is one of those stats that can be misleading as it all depends on how big the field was when a horse last ran. For instance, they may have finished last of 7 and still tick that box. However, those that had a top four finish last time out have much higher strike rates than everything else and they also account for 13 of the last 20 winners.

A race in the 30 days prior to the Great St Wilfred handicap looks essential and only 2 winners since 1997 have defied an absence of more than a month to win this. Similarly, a win over 6f looks strong (16 of the last 20 winners). An official ratings band of 94 – 100 looks like the way to go and fits the bill for 8 of the last 10 winners.

Putting all that together gives us the following profile:

• Rated 94 – 100
• Top 10 in the betting (priced 10/1 to 20/1)
• Raced in the last 30 days
• Top four finish last time out
• Trained by David O’Meara or Richard Fahey
• A win at the distance of 6f
• Drawn in stall 1 – 13
• Aged 5yo to 7yo

The above was just one of the Big Races covered in the latest Insiders Report with the other 5 all taking place at next week’s York Ebor Festival. Alongside his insightful trends analysis the report also includes Alan Dudman’s (Betting.betfair) review of the meeting and a quintet of Trainer’s that you really need to keep on your side for the 4 days of top class action on the Knavesmire.

You can find out how to get your hands on a copy and access to the comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club here.

Click here to read on and find out the contenders that Nick has settled on for Great St Wilfred Handicap.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections (3.15pm Ripon) – Sat 19th August’17
The trends qualifiers are Pipers Note, Mattmu and Flying Pursuit. Mattmu is the most interesting of the three having chased home Magical Memory in a Group 3 last season before flying too high at Group 2 and Group 1 level. His reappearance was too bad to be true but that was after a year off and was third in the Nunthorpe in 2015 so was once very classy. Pipers Note is consistent and should be thereabouts while Flying Pursuit is progressive but is on a career high mark. Richard Fahey has a good record in this and Eastern Impact would be a danger to all if on song.

Mattmu @25/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Gen)
Pipers Note @10/1 Gen
Eastern Impact @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Gen)
Flying Pursuit @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Gen)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve