The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th May)
The new Flat season is warming up nicely and the coming weekend will see the first of the Classics with Newmarket playing host to the 2000 & 1000 Guineas. These particular races formed part of Alex Peperell’s Big Race Punts article for the brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 182). A little later on you can read his thoughts on Saturday’s feature race at Newmarket but just before we move on to that we have a quick update on the latest news from the Insiders Club.
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Now over to Alex for his thoughts on the first Classic of the new flat season:-
Qipco 2000 Guineas – Sat 4th May Newmarket 3.35pm
If Too Darn Hot was in this race, it wouldn’t really be much of a betting proposition, but as he sadly won’t make it, the contest looks wide open. He’s not the only one missing the race, if Quorto or Persian King would have been in here, it would have been a surprise not to have seen them start favourite. So with effectively, the top three in the market all absent, it is extremely competitive.
The way I perceive the race to set up will also have a huge effect on a number of chances as well. A number of these horses showed a ton of speed as 2yo’s, notably Ten Sovereigns, Advertise and Emaraaty Ana were all rapid in winning high class 6f races and I wouldn’t be entirely convinced they’ll get home over a mile. This race is bound to be run at a good clip with those sorts of horses in it.
One who I think deserves a lot of respect is Madhmoon, who showed a high level of form when winning on fast ground last season and looked to be wheel spinning on a slow surface on his reappearance.
In an open renewal, I think Shine So Bright is wildly overpriced for Silvestre De Sousa, Andrew Balding and King Power Racing, who have started the season in tremendous style.
Comments from De Sousa after the race and general vibes are that there is a big doubt about him staying the trip, as he shows a lot of pace at home. But just because he’s quick on the gallops, doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t stay on the track.
Watching back his 6f races from last season, in which he ran with enormous credit in 4 Group 2 contests, he gets slightly out-paced at a crucial stage, but come the line, he is finishing the race off best of all in each of the last three races at Goodwood, York and Newbury.
On his reappearance over 7f, he destroyed the field from the front in the European Free Handicap. He showed a lot of pace to get to the front early on, but that didn’t have a detrimental effect on how he finished off. Two other things I like about that run are that it shows he handles the track, plus that he’s versatile as he went from the front then, but in his previous races at Group level, he raced in the middle of the pack.
With regards to him staying the mile, I actually think he simply relished stepping up to seven furlongs last time and will do so again at a mile. He has the pace to lay up with the field in the early stages of the race, but I think he’ll have the staying power to see it out. His Sire, Oasis Dream, is no stranger to having middle-distance horses despite being a fast horse himself. Midday, a winner of 5 Group 1’s at 1m2f and 1m4f, is by Oasis Dream.
Plus, Shine So Bright’s Dam is by Sir Percy who won the Derby. She herself was a Group 3 winner at a mile and a quarter, the rest of her family has bundles of stamina too. I think he may have the perfect combination of speed and stamina to show up really well in this race and is no back number, let alone an outsider, in this wide open renewal.
Back Shine So Bright @ 33/1 Each Way (BFred/Tote/Byl 4pl, 1/5)
Alex also previewed and provided selections for the 1000 Guineas, Lockinge Stakes and Epsom Derby and you can get your hands on these and a whole lot more in Issue 182 of the Insiders Club Members Report.
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve