The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th Nov’16)
It didn’t take long for the free Big Race selections to return to their normal level of form with last weekend’s picks nailing one of the Breeders Cup races over at Santa Anita. Here is a quick reminder of our Big Race guru Dr Nick Hardman’s thoughts as to why he could see Obviously running a big race
“Santa Anita 9.05pm
I think this is the most interesting race on the card due to the unique nature of the track. I have read a lot about horses with speed coming back in trip and being hard to peg back. That’s the angle I’ll play and two who fit the bill are Obviously (adv EW 14/1) and Celestine (adv EW 10/1).”
The form book details that although he wasn´t best away (normal for him) he soon recovered to lead, and was then able to control things from there. Things got a bit desperate close to home but he just held on to win by a nose!
Nick’s selections cannot win every race but they have been making solid profits for just shy of two years now and you may be interested to watch this video which explains the methods behind them.
The brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 139) includes Nick’s insightful trends and key stats for a number of the big races due to take place in the coming weeks, one of which is the feature event on Saturday’s top class card at Cheltenham:-
BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Sat 12th Nov, 2.25pm Cheltenham)
This is a race that has been dominated in recent years by those to the fore in the betting. Six of the last nine renewals have gone to one of the horses in the top three in the betting, the exceptions being Little Josh, Caid Du Berlais and last year’s winner Annacotty. I would certainly concentrate on the top half of the market with the top 8 having supplied all bar two winners since 1997.
Eleven of the last 13 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo, the exceptions being Little Josh (8yo) and Caid Du Berlais (5yo). Normal service was resumed in 2015 when Annacotty won at the age of 7 and this race normally goes to a second or third season chaser who is prominent in the betting. Given this event is early in the season there are no surprises to see 10 of the last 19 winners take this first time out and a further 7 winning after a single prep run. Horses having run twice or more already in the season are 2-80.
Course form looks a positive with 16 of the last 19 winners having competed in a chase at the previous Cheltenham Festival. 14 of the last 19 winners had previous winning form at Cheltenham over the trip of 2m 4 ½f or further. Caid Du Berlais ran 3rd in the Fred Winter (2013) and 2nd in the Martin Pipe Conditional race (2014) over hurdles so he had plenty of the aforementioned course form.
Al Ferof lugged a big weight (11st 8lbs) off a lofty mark of 159 to win this in 2012. That was a bit of a trends buster, the previous five and the next two winners all carried 11st or less and were rated 139 – 148.
Eight last time out winners have won the Paddy Power since 1997 (10% strike rate) and a further three winners were runner-up on their previous start (6% strike rate). Although this race is over 2m 4 ½f it is interesting to note that no fewer than 15 of the last 19 winners had actually raced over 3 miles or further during their career. Only 1 winner since 1997 has been trained in Ireland. Those trainers with a good record in this race include Paul Nicholls (2 wins in the last 4 years), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 wins in the last 8 years) and Jonjo O’Neill (2 wins in the last 10 years). Philip Hobbs and Alan King have had a number of placed runners in recent times, often at decent each-way prices and the latter went one better when saddling Annacotty last year.
• Aged 6yo or 7yo
• No more than one run in the current season
• Top 8 in the betting
• Rated 139 – 148
• Carrying 11st or less
• Ran at the 2016 Cheltenham festival
• Won at Cheltenham previously
• Top 2 finish LTO
• Raced over 3m or further
• Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies
Nick will be taking the above into consideration when settling on his final selections which you can find below…
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 12th Nov
The trends qualifiers are Double Shuffle, Aso, Stilletto and As De Mee. Of the quartet I think As De Mee looks to hold a decent chance as he ran More Of That to a couple of lengths here last year, has distance winning form and ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival (another stat many previous winners have). I think Aso is an interesting runner who has form ties with Ballyalton (Festival winner) and Fox Norton. Any rain would help his cause no end and he could outrun his odds if ready to go. I will also have a saver on Frodon who Paul Nicholls speaks glowingly about and gets a handy weight for age allowance and Harry Cobden’s 3lb claim.
Frodon @8/1 Gen
As De Mee @8/1 Gen
Aso @16/1 e/w Gen (1/4 odds, 6 places, BV, 5pl B365)
All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve