The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 14th Jan’17)
Last time around Loose Chips (adv EW 18/1) performed the best of the selections provided by our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, in coming third in the Veteran’s Chase series final at Sandown. You can’t win them all and the place spoils certainly softened the blow somewhat.
For the coming weekend Nick will be casting his slide rule over a number of the feature events including the Betfred Classic Chase from Warwick where a small matter of 20+ runners are due to take part! These are the types of events that Nick excels at and you can find out more about his big race winning techniques in this interesting video.
The following is a snap shot of the key trends that Nick uncovered for the aforementioned race in his article for the brand new Insiders Members Report (Issue 141). The monthly reports are an integral part of the three pronged package available to members of the Insiders Club along with a vibrant and friendly community/forum and of course those highly profitable Club Portfolio tips which in 2016 made over 850 points profit at a cracking 31% ROI. You can find out more here – http://bettinginsiders.com .
Betfred Classic Chase (Sat 14th 15.35pm Warwick)
A true slog of ever there was one; the Classic Chase is for the real stayers especially when run on the usual soft or heavy ground which is the case this time around. It has been won by some decent sorts in the past including Shotgun Paddy, Rigadin De Beauchene and Hey Big Spender. Paul Nicholls has a decent record in this with three wins since 2006 (race abandoned in 2009 and 2010) and Alan King won this in 2008 and 2011. Look out for what they run this time around.
Four of the last 8 renewals have been on heavy ground, with a further three run on soft ground so also look for a horse that goes on the ground. Eleven of the past fourteen winners carried 11-01 or less so I will be looking for those racing under this weight, especially if the conditions are testing.
Hey Big Spender was rated 156 and carried 11-12 when he won this but that stands out a mile as a trends buster. Horses rated higher than 136 have won just three renewals since 2000 so look for something rate less than this.
Two or three runs in the current season look perfect and accounts for 11 of the last 14 winners. This is a real slog so no surprise to see that all bar one of the previous winners had won a race over at least 3 miles and all bar two winners had raced over 3m 2f or further.
Horses with Grand National experience have won three times and horses with race experience over 4 miles or further have won this eight times. A run in a “National” of some description looks a plus.
Favourites are 1-15 so they are worth taking on as winners have come from all over the betting market including 10th, 11th and 12th. That gives the race a wide open feel and it has produced its fair share of double-figure priced winners, the biggest being Russe Blance last year at an SP of 20/1.
Older horses do well with 9 of the last 14 winners aged 9yo or older. In fact, the 9yo+ brigade have won 6 of the last 9 renewals.
Putting all that together gives us the following profile:
• Aged 9yo or older
• Carrying 11-01 or less on soft or heavy ground
• Rated under 137
• 2 or 3 runs in the current season
• Won over 3 miles or further
• Raced over 4 miles or further or competed in one of the Nationals
• Trained by Paul Nicholls or Alan King
Saturdays racing includes some top notch races from Warwick, Kempton and Wetherby although the weather may play a part of what goes ahead. You can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 14th Jan
One from the Insiders Report and the trends qualifier who ticks plenty of boxes is old boy and thorough stayer Midnight Prayer. Rigadin De Beauchene is interesting off 10-03, will love the ground and is a previous winner of this race. Kerry Lee won this last year with Russe Blanc and I think that trainer’s Goodtoknow has been a bit overlooked as he is gradually coming into form, acts on the ground and is back on a winning mark.
Rigadin De Beauchene @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Midnight Prayer @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Goodtoknow @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve