The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 28th Jan’17)
Last weekend our resident horse racing pundit cast his slide rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock and his final selections (3) filled second and third places to secure small gains overall. The winner Bristol De Mai was mighty impressive and there was talk of a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup on the back of this performance. Nick’s picks Otago Trail and Bishops Road ran with credit but time may tell that they had an impossible task against a rapidly improving 6yo who won easily by 22 length’s!
Nick’s Big Race approach can’t nail all the winners but his special techniques combined with clever staking has secured consistent profits over the last two years. You can find out more about his methods in this interesting video.
Of late the weather has been taking its toll with a number of meetings being lost to the elements and with cracking cards scheduled at Doncaster and Cheltenham on Saturday the current forecast is positive that they will get the go ahead.
These types of meetings are food and drink for Nick’s Big Race approach and no doubt he will have plenty of ammo to get stuck into the bookies with this weekend. His selections are the flagship of the Betting Insiders Club Portfolio which along with a vibrant community/forum and monthly member’s reports provides a comprehensive package for folk that want to take their punting to a whole new level. You find out more here.
The second race on Saturday’s Cheltenham card provided Nick’s followers with last year’s winner King’s Odyssey and therefore it seems appropriate to share with you the key trends that he will use to tackle the race this time around:-
Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase (12.35pm Cheltenham)
Venetia Williams does well in this race, having sent out the winner three times between 2004 and 2009. Aside from Martin Pipe, no other trainer has won this more than once since 1997.
We had a couple of big priced winners in Vino Griego at 25/1 in 2013 and Indian Castle at 14/1 the following year, but these two aside, it normally goes to a quietly fancied one with all of the winners since 2000 have gone in at 8/1 or shorter, in fact all bar three since 1997 were to be found in the top 5 in the betting.
Six and seven year old’s have dominated this in recent years as you would expect for a novice event with seven of the last eight having come from this age bracket. There have been five 8yo winners but only one since 2005 so I will exclude these and concentrate on the 6-7yo’s.
We have seen a shift in class in recent times and the last seven winners all carried at least 10-11 and two top weights have obliged in that time. A race in the previous 30 days also looks positive. Those that had run in the previous 30 days have supplied 11 of the 19 winners since 1997, but at a much higher strike rate than the eight that won after a break of more than 30 days. Horses with a previous win at the distance are 5-35 and should be noted whilst a win over at least 2m 3 ½f looks essential and accounts for all bar 4 of the winners since 1997.
Not surprisingly, for a novice event, only one previous winner of this handicap chase had previously won at Cheltenham and only five of the previous winners had placed at the track before. A top 3 finish last time out looks essential (16 of the last 19 winners) and 14 winners since 1997 arrived in the back of a top 2 finish last time out.
Putting all that together gives us the following profile:
• Top 5 in the betting market
• Aged 6yo or 7yo
• Rated 128+
• Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
• Raced in the previous 30 days
• A win over 2m 3 ½f or further
• Priced 8/1 or shorter
• Top 2 finish last time out
• Trained by Venetia Williams
You can find out which runners have caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 28th Jan
Paul Nicholl’s holds a strong hand and Ibis Du Rheu’s cause will be aided by Harry Cobden’s claim. However, stablemate More Buck’s is more interesting at around two and a half times the price. He just about stays 3 miles but this drop back in trip looks a smart move. Singlefarmpayment is 2 for 2 here over fences and is another who drops in trip. He travels well so that should not be a problem and if still handy approaching the last then his stamina will help as they motor up the hill.
Singlefarmpayment @5/1 Win Betfred/Tote
More Bucks @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Sky/Hills)
Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve