The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 25th Feb’17)
Last weekend we shared our resident Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s key trends for the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock and his final selections ran decent races to finish 3rd and 6th of the 13 that went to post.
Vintage Clouds saw the longer trip out well without getting close to challenge the eventual winner and runners up whilst Kruzhlinin make a bad blunder 3 out which put paid to his chance. You can’t win them all and Nick’s followers have enjoyed a solid start to the third campaign with over 80 points profit banked in less than 2 months combined with a commendable +26% ROI.
You can find out more about his winning Big Race methods in the interesting video.
Once again the UK weather is taking its toll on the horse racing action with Thursday’s card at Huntingdon having to be called off, hopefully Saturdays racing will get the green light as Kempton stage a quality meeting which features the Grade 3 BetBright Handicap Chase.
This particular race was covered by Nick in his Big Race Trends article for the Betting Insiders Club Report (Issue 142) and a snapshot of his findings were as follows:-
BetBright Chase Kempton 3.35pm
The BetBright Chase (formerly known as the Racing Post Chase and briefly known as the Racing Plus Chase) is run over 3 miles at Kempton. Outsider of the field Bally Legend won at an unfancied 28/1 in 2014 and Opening Batsman at 12/1 provided young trainer Harry Fry with his first big winner of his training career in 2013. Razor Royale at 11/1 and Nacarat at 10/1 also provided punters with double figure winners in 2010 and 2009. However, prior to Nacarat’s 2009 win we had seen a string of single priced winners (odds ranging from 3/1 to 9/1) going all the way back to Mudahim who won at 14/1 in 1997. That statistic was upheld by Rocky Creek in 2015 who duly obliged at 8/1 and 2016 winner Theatre Guide at 6/1. Eleven winners since 1997 won their previous start and 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top three places last time out.
8yo’s have the best record in the race (7-67; 10% win rate) followed by 7yo runners (3-45; 7% win rate). 9yo runners are 4-54 (7% win rate) but they include the last three winners. Four of first five home in 2015’s renewal were aged 9yo+ and the top two last year were aged 9yo and 10yo, so we may see the tide turning towards the more experienced runners. Philip Hobbs stands out a mile as the top trainer but is without a runner this time. Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2008 and 2015 and the runner up in 2014, 2013 and 2007, together with the 3rd placed horse in 2009, 2008 and 2006. Horses that have run well in this race one year often put in a good performance in following years. Two-time winner Nacarat also finished 2nd and 3rd in the two years in between his victories and Simon made a bold effort to retain his crown in 2008 (finished 4th) having won this in 2007. Bally Legend followed up his victory in 2014 with a creditable 3rd in 2015. Opening Batsman was runner-up in 2016, having won the race himself in 2013.
Bally Legend bucked many trends when landing the spoils in 2014 and his winning mark of 138 was the lowest since Gunther McBride won off 120 back in 2002. I would be inclined to look further up the ratings and horses rated 143+ have been successful in 14 of the last 20 renewals. Horses rated 150+ won in 2015, 2012, 2008, 2005, 2004 and 2000. The bracket that has produced the most winners is 140 -147 which has provided us with 10 of the last 20 and 8 of those were rated 143 -147. Top weights have a remarkable record in the race. Going back to 1997 the record of top and joint-top weights reads 12033210132110102210030. Pretty impressive stuff and I would recommend making an assessment of the chances of the top weighted horse when it comes to finding a suitable selection for this race.
There have been 4 winning fav’s since 1997 and a further 5 winning second fav’s. The top four in the betting have produced 15 of the last 20 winners and only two have come from outside the top six in the market in that time. Race fitness looks a strong trend with horses having had at least two seasonal starts accounting for all bar four since 1997. Interestingly horses that had had as many as 6 previous runs that season are 5-13 (38% win rate) and with 5 starts are 3-33 (9% SR). I would say a minimum of 2 seasonal runs is a starting point.
Twelve winners since 1997 had previous winning form over 3 miles and further and all bar two in that time had won a race over a minimum distance of 2m 5f. Having put all that information into the melting pot we are left with the following trends:
• Top 3 finish LTO (preferably LTO winner)
• Previous form in the race (ideally top 4 finish)
• Rated 140+ (ideally rated 143 -147)
• Top 4 in the betting
• Minimum 2 previous seasonal runs (ideally 5 or 6)
• Won a race over 2m 5f or further (preferably 3 miles or further)
• Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls
Nick will be taking the above trends into consideration to help narrow down the field to a shortlist before settling on his final selection(s) for the big race. To find out what will be carrying his support click here to read on:-
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 25th Feb
One from the Insiders Report and Double Shuffle ticks plenty of boxes so heads the shortlist. Ballykan also fits the bill except he is outside the top 4 in the betting but makes each-way appeal as he continues to run well. He was fourth in this last year and could well make the frame again.
Double Shuffle @5/1 Gen
Ballykan @12/1 e/w (3 places, 1/4 odds)
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve