The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th March’17)
Almost in a blink of an eye the Cheltenham Festival is over once again and as the dust settles owners, trainers and jockeys will reflect on how it panned out for them after all their planning and preparations. There were many memorable performances such as Nicky Henderson’s 1-2 in the Champion Hurdle a feat repeated in Wednesday’s RSA Chase, whilst the Willie Mullins team suffered several setbacks before their four-timer on Thursday. The Gold Cup on the final day of the Festival was won in good style by the Jessica Harrington trained Sizing John on only his 4th start since switching to the yard.
Of the horses we featured from Alan Dudman’s ante-post selections in last week’s newsletter Defi Du Seuil (adv 6/1) won the Triumph in great style by 5 lengths and Native River (adv EW 14/1) finished 3rd in the aforementioned Gold Cup to ensure a healthy +54% profit overall for his followers.
Amongst the comprehensive content enjoyed by members of the Betting Insiders Club are the insightful articles written by our team of industry respected authors who use their knowledge and experience to often uncover gems by “thinking outside of the box”.
In the current Insiders Report (Issue 143) stats Guru Josh Wright (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk) covers a number of angles one of which focusses on a select bunch of trainers that are very adept in improving some of their horses by the careful use of “headgear”. The data that Josh presents in his research piece details 16 trainers that collectively have produced the following results in recent years:-
The criteria used via the excellent horseracebase research tool to achieve the above results were as follows:-
2012 – to date
Horse Wearing headgear today
Horse last ran in Headgear (same as today) – once only
Placed on last run – No
Relatively fancied today, 10/1 or lower
So to all intense purposes the fitting of headgear last time out did not perk up the performance resulting in an unplaced run. There is some published data to imply that the horse may have reacted negatively to the first application of the headgear, but on the second run they are more used to it and therefore may perform better on that occasion.
The above stats show a better than 30% win rate in such circumstances and the profit figures are certainly at a level to take a note of. One of the trainers Josh uncovered in his research has a suitable runner entered on Saturday….
Monbeg Gold (Kemp 3.15pm) Gen 9/1 (EW, 2 places, ¼ odds)
Trained by Jonjo O’Neill who has trained 13 winners from 46 runners of the type described above (28.26% Strike Rate) and last time out wore blinkers for the 1st time before finishing 5th of 13 in a decent contest at Newbury in which he ran well for a long time. Prior to that he wore cheek-pieces which are reapplied for Saturday’s race and the drop back in trip will hopefully help him run a solid race at the odds.
You can find out how to grab a copy of the latest Insiders Report which contains Josh’s research piece in full along with numerous other profitable angles here. http://bettinginsiders.com
In addition to Kempton Saturday’s racing action includes Midlands Grand National from Uttoxeter and to find our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, thoughts on the big race are below…
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 18th March’17
The trends point to a horse aged 8yo or 9yo and carrying under 11st. That leaves just three in Spookydooky, Chase The Spud and Court Frontier. Spookydooky ran well in over a long trip at Exeter last time and is effectively only 2lb higher here with Killian Moore claiming 3lbs. Chase The Spud gets a massive pull in the weights from Eider Chase winner Mysteree and could turn the tables on their close Haydock running, whereas Court Frontier is the potential improver. Goulanes won this in 2014 and it would be no surprise to see him involved with a clear round.
Spookydooky @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Court Frontier @8/1 Win (Gen)
Chase The Spud @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Goulanes @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve