The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 1st April’17)
In a relative blink of an eye the new Flat turf season will be under way with the traditional curtain raiser meeting at Doncaster on Saturday which features the Lincoln Handicap. A little later on you will be able to find out what our Big Race Guru Nick Hardman has to say about the event and which of the 22 runners will be carrying his stakes.
Just before that we want to touch on the diversity that the Betting Insiders Club offers to its members. Of course we have straight backing (including Each-Way) with the flagship Nick Hardman Big Race Coverage, but also we are increasingly providing opportunities to profit from the use of the betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq. One of the common complaints that we receive as feedback from members is how they are treated as winning punters by the majority of the mainstream bookmakers. It’s a regular theme and as such we encourage our team of industry respected contributors to include options that the exchanges provide such as the use of the Betfair SP, to Back/Lay and also trade In-Play.
A recent example is a trial we are carrying out on a select group of trainers that are adept at placing their jumps handicappers away from the big festivals such as Cheltenham and Aintree. The live trial got going at the start of February and to date has landed 18 winners from 72 runners (25% Strike Rate) and has made just shy of 30 points profit. The interesting thing is those gains were made using the Betfair SP so place and leave, no chasing the best odds guaranteed bookies etc.
You may recall last week we highlighted one of the teams we fancy to win or at least place in next weekend’s Grand National and the horse in question (The Young Master) does seem primed for a big run. However one of our regular authors Alan Dudman (betting.betfair) took a different approach in his article for the current Insiders Club Members Report in that he considered the entries for the Grand National that may offer an opportunity to profit even if they don’t ultimately win the big race. He is a snapshot of Alan’s thoughts…
This seven-year-old has a lot going for him as a lively outsider around the 50/1 mark. He ticks the well-handicapped box from a mark of 151, and he has a nice weight of 10-9. His form is decent for a lightly-raced runner too. The obvious piece of evidence is the excellent second in Newbury’s Grade 2 Denman Chase. Yes it was a tactical affair, but he travelled like the better horse – which is no mean feat against the current Gold Cup second- favourite Native River. He was traded at a low of 2.66 in that, but I really liked the way he got into a rhythm – perfect qualities for an Aintree horse.
His effort in Liverpool on the Mildmay course last December behind Many Clouds gave a hint that he is worth trying over the National’s marathon trip, and he also beat Bristol De Mai as a novice by seven lengths at Ayr – which gives a guide to better ground and a flat track as optimum conditions. His defeat to Native River might highlight him being slightly vulnerable to something with bags of stamina, but we don’t need to worry about that. Of the 11 defeats in his career, he has traded shorter than his BSP on each occasion – including a 1.42 at Ascot. And he could bypass Cheltenham and head straight to Aintree.
The strategy with him is to gain a green book and profit all-round with an example stake. Take odds of 51.0 at £10, and key in a lay with the ‘keep bets’ facility at odds of 14.0 for £35. This using an example staking plan (and adjust yours accordingly) gives you a profit of around £20 no matter the result if he gets matched at the lay price ordered.
Alan highlighted the trading chances of several other horses for the Grand National and you can find out which ones they were and a whole lot more here. http://bettinginsiders.com
As we mentioned earlier its Lincoln Handicap day at Doncaster on Saturday so click here to read on and find out what Nick fancies for the main event.
Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 1st April’17
The Lincoln and I am going with Richard Fahey again and David O’Meara who consistently gets his runners placed in this. Bravery is ex Aiden O’Brien trained and decent. This yard often improves horses and if doing the same here then he has an obvious chance. Steel Train is interesting despite a row of duck eggs next to his name and Dolphin Vista is the pick of Hanagan for Fahey. That trainer runs a fair few and Gabrial is not out of this on his current mark.
Steel Train @22/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Dolphin Vista @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)
Gabrial @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Bravery @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve