Great St Wilfred Handicap – Top Trends & Free Tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 19th August’17)
On Saturday Ripon racecourse stages a cracking 7 race meeting the feature of which is the William Hill Great St Wilfred Handicap which is the perfect type of event to use Nick Hardman’s Big Race Method. If you haven’t seen it yet you can find out more in this interesting video.

In the brand new Insiders Members Report (Issue 148) Nick’s Big Race Analysis contribution includes the key trends and stats for Ripon’s feature event and the following is a snapshot of his findings:-

Great St Wilfred Stakes (6f handicap); Ripon (Sat 3.15pm Ripon)
The Great St Wilfred Stakes is a 6f handicap worth plenty of dosh to the winner (47k) and it therefore attracts a big field each year with many of the top stables represented. Between 2011 and 2015 two trainers dominated proceedings – Richard Fahey and David O’Meara. In fact, O’Meara won 3 out of the 4 renewals between 2011 and 2014 and Richard Fahey won it in 2013 and 2015. Put simply, start by checking out their runners which at the time of writing are:-

Richard Fahey – Growl, Eastern Impact, Right Touch and George Bowen.

David O’Meara – Out Do and Al Qahwa

Richard Fahey’s Don’t Touch was a bit of a trends buster in 2015 as he became the first 3yo to win since Pipalong in 1999. Older horses have tended to dominate recently with 7 of the last 10 winners being aged 5yo to 7yo. It is also a good race for the each way backer with recent winners at odds of 16/1, 20/1, 11/1 and 18/1 since 2010. That said, favourites are 5-22 (23% win rate) since 1997 so do not be put off if you fancy the jolly as you can always back something at a bigger price as well. Only 3 winners have come from outside the top 10 in the betting market in the last 20 renewals and with usually around 20 runners going to post you may want to use that to halve the field. Horses sent off 20/1 or bigger are 0-134 so avoid them for win purposes.

A low to middle draw may be advantageous as all bar 3 of the last 20 winners exited from stall 13 or lower. Last time out winners have a good strike rate (6-53; 12%) and all bar 3 of the last 20 winners posted a top 7 finish last time out. That is one of those stats that can be misleading as it all depends on how big the field was when a horse last ran. For instance, they may have finished last of 7 and still tick that box. However, those that had a top four finish last time out have much higher strike rates than everything else and they also account for 13 of the last 20 winners.

A race in the 30 days prior to the Great St Wilfred handicap looks essential and only 2 winners since 1997 have defied an absence of more than a month to win this. Similarly, a win over 6f looks strong (16 of the last 20 winners). An official ratings band of 94 – 100 looks like the way to go and fits the bill for 8 of the last 10 winners.

Putting all that together gives us the following profile:

• Rated 94 – 100
• Top 10 in the betting (priced 10/1 to 20/1)
• Raced in the last 30 days
• Top four finish last time out
• Trained by David O’Meara or Richard Fahey
• A win at the distance of 6f
• Drawn in stall 1 – 13
• Aged 5yo to 7yo

The above was just one of the Big Races covered in the latest Insiders Report with the other 5 all taking place at next week’s York Ebor Festival. Alongside his insightful trends analysis the report also includes Alan Dudman’s (Betting.betfair) review of the meeting and a quintet of Trainer’s that you really need to keep on your side for the 4 days of top class action on the Knavesmire.

You can find out how to get your hands on a copy and access to the comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club here.

Click here to read on and find out the contenders that Nick has settled on for Great St Wilfred Handicap.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections (3.15pm Ripon) – Sat 19th August’17
The trends qualifiers are Pipers Note, Mattmu and Flying Pursuit. Mattmu is the most interesting of the three having chased home Magical Memory in a Group 3 last season before flying too high at Group 2 and Group 1 level. His reappearance was too bad to be true but that was after a year off and was third in the Nunthorpe in 2015 so was once very classy. Pipers Note is consistent and should be thereabouts while Flying Pursuit is progressive but is on a career high mark. Richard Fahey has a good record in this and Eastern Impact would be a danger to all if on song.

Mattmu @25/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Gen)
Pipers Note @10/1 Gen
Eastern Impact @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Gen)
Flying Pursuit @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Gen)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

The Portfolio – A Profitable Approach

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th August’17)
Here at the Betting Insiders Club we are big advocates of utilising a Portfolio approach to provide a cushion to the inevitable ups and downs that come with punting on horse racing and sports whilst at the same time making best use of the betting bank.

The flagship Club activity is of course Nick Hardman’s Big Race Coverage which has seen solid and consistent profits for 2 ½+ years now. The number of times he has nailed the winner of a 20+ runner seemingly unfathomable top class handicap using his Big Race methods is amazing and you can find out how he does it in this interesting video.

Alongside Nick’s horse racing selections we encourage members to develop their own Portfolio to suit their individual style of punting. Some are happy to sit back and watch the big races on a weekend and during the mid-week festivals such as Glorious Goodwood with their sheckles invested on Nick’s selections. Others also enjoy a punt on the lower class of races or even other sports such as football and tennis and that is where the Insiders Club can help.

The Club has a friendly and vibrant community/forum where members can share their thoughts and methods amongst like-minded individuals who see the benefit of pooling resources for the benefit of all. Just a couple of examples of this is member Brian’s “Tough on Top” trial which had this posted on it a few days back “I am 40 points up with a SR of over 20% so not too shabby so as they say on the islands …… Don’t worry – BE HAPPY” and Jon Gibby’s (Raceform books) Speed Ratings “+59pts from 84 bets, Get in there! Top notch my man, well done”.

We also trial a number of angles/strategies that are published in the monthly members Reports and the combination of the community threads provides a daily shortlist of potential bets from proven and consistent sources. We do not suggest backing them all blindly but they are a reliable source of winners which, with a little filtering, can be a useful addition to developing your own individual Portfolio approach.

Going one step further the database of strategies provide an excellent source of materials to develop your own approach to trading on the exchanges via back to lays on horse racing, in-play football trading and also comprehensive coverage of risk free arbitrage trading where you can take advantage of the myriad of bookmaker offers using well explained methods. These are an excellent way of building an initial bank or topping it up along the way.

In summary the Insiders Club provides a whole lot more than just a receive email selections, back them, and hope for profits type set up. No doubt many of you have been down this route and how has it worked out for you so far? Of course there are some profitable tipster services out there, in fact we have a team of product testers that run live trials on a whole raft of them and they do find the odd gem along with many that do not deliver on their hype or promises of easy profits.

If your current punting activities are not delivering the level of returns that you would aspire to then now could be the perfect time to make a positive change and check out the comprehensive package available from the Betting Insiders Club.

To change things around a little today we will be sharing a few qualifiers from a micro method that has been doing particularly well in a live trial on the Insiders Club forum.

Sat 12th August’17

D Tudhope/15:00 Hayd – Fingals Cave – 7/1 EW Gen

D Tudhope/16:05 Hayd – Fire Brigade – 11/8 Gen

J Spencer/14:50 Ascot – Basil Berry – 16/1 EW Gen

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Glorious Glorious Goodwood!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 5th August’17)
First off congratulations to those of you that heeded our advice last week in getting on-board the Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s profit train as you will be sitting pretty on top of a pile of cash!

Nick’s selections for the ultra-competitive Galway Festival and Glorious Goodwood are having a ball with over 50 points profit banked up to the end of Thursday! The daily picks have been made available the night before racing leaving plenty of time to get the bets on, grab the early value prices, and allowing folk to get on with their usual daytime activities.

You can find out more about Nick’s Big Race Method in this interesting video.

Nick’s selections form an integral part of the three-pronged package that members of the Betting Insiders Club enjoy which also includes a vibrant and friendly community/forum and a monthly 52 page Insiders Report. Talking of the latter the brand new edition (Issue 148) is at the printers right now and will be winging its way in a few days’ time.

Each month our team of specialist contributors share angles and strategies across a range of popular punting sports such as horse racing, football, tennis and risk free arbitrage. For the brand new report some of the highlights include a profitable micro method which focuses on Ireland’s champion trainer Willie Mullins, Big Race Trends for the feature events due to be run in the next few weeks, the latest in a series on Speed Ratings, a raft of punting pointers on specific horse race trainers and an ante-post review of the York Ebor Festival.

Our resident tennis expert casts his eye over the US Grand Slam and the footie boys have really gone to town to arm us with plenty of angles for the resumption of the main European football leagues.

To wrap things up the arbitrage guru shares more of his risk free techniques and the diligent testing team have their latest round up of results from a selection of commercially sold systems and services. Very few of these deliver on their promises but Rod & Keith have uncovered one or two gems amongst the sawdust!

If your current punting activities are not delivering the level of returns that you would aspire to then now could be the perfect time to make a positive change and check out the comprehensive package available from the Betting Insiders Club.

Click here to read on and find out what Nick fancies from Saturdays Big Races.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 5th August’17
Goodwood 3.35pm
A race from the Insiders Report and the trends horses are:
Upstaging @22/1 EW (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Al Qhawa @16/1 EW (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Raucous @18/1 e/w EW (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Galway 3.05pm
Three against the field are Mullins pair Aussie Reigns and Cap Daubois and Gordon Elliott’s Westland Row. Just hope Ruby has chosen the wrong one – it would not be the first time.
Cap Daubois @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, B365)
Aussie Reigns @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen)
Westland Row @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP & BFSB)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Bumper Festival Profits?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 29th July’17)

We have a proverbial feast of top class horse racing taking place over the next seven days starting on Saturday with the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot for which the dual Oaks winner Enable is the hot favourite as she takes on the older generation for the first time. Sure to be a popular winner with a rejuvenated Frankie Dettori on board but the opposition will ensure it is no penalty kick with last year’s winner Highland Reel and three other previous Group 1 winners to content with.

Sunday provides a brief respite and the last chance to put the final touches to the form book study with the Galway Festival getting underway on Monday and then Glorious Goodwood the day after.

Of course if cramming all the hours needed to get a handle on the main contenders is a step too far then you can always follow the lead of the Betting Insiders Club members by turning to Big Race Guru Nick Hardman who will be providing selections for each day of the Festival on the Sussex Downs. If last year is anything to go by with winners like Fire Fighting (adv 10/1 EW), You’re Hired (adv 10/1 EW), Bear Valley (adv 9/1), Take Cover (adv 14/1 EW) and Hawatif (adv 12/1 EW) we are in for a cracker.

You can find out more about Nick’s Big Race Method in this interesting video.

If your current punting activities are not delivering the kind of profit that you would hope for then why not make a positive change and check out the comprehensive package, which include Nick Hardman’s Big Race selections, available from the Betting Insiders Club.

Just before we move on to Saturdays free racing tips we have a snippet that was published in the current Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 147). Alan Dudman (https://betting.betfair.com/) provided the readers with a detailed review of the Glorious Goodwood Festival and in it he shared an interesting angle for the Lennox Stakes which is the third race on the opening day:-

Lennox Stakes 7f – Tuesday 15:00 1st August

With Godolphin re-emerging as a racing power and a force at Royal Ascot (it’s taken some time for the renaissance let’s be honest), Sheikh Mohammed’s team have the chance to have a decent meeting at Goodwood and have plenty of strength in depth in the major races.

Starting with the Lennox Stakes on Tuesday, Godolphin hasn’t fared too badly in this in recent seasons; with a one-two in 2017 with Dutch Connection and Home Of The Brave. 2016 went the way of Toormore (who ran in the blue), whilst 2015 was another profitable one for the outfit with a one-three.

Dutch Connection was second in that renewal and Godolphin ended up buying him too. He rates as a 5/1 chance at the time of writing; with the race priced up with Paddy Power and Betfair, but I’ve never really rated him (Dutch Connection) as top class.

To use John Gosden parlance; it is the last time to roll the ‘7f dice’ with Dream Castle. He runs like a sprinter, but he’s never raced at a sprint trip. His trainer Saeed bin Suroor is still resisting the drop down in distance and there’s a chance that Goodwood could be his track. The 2009 winner Finjaan was a very speedy horse, and in many ways Dream Castle reminds me of him. Quick.

His latest run in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot was another frustrating effort. They split into two groups and again he raced without any cover. He’s a bit too keen for his own good, and that really needs to start sorting itself out. This horse could be a bit better than this Group 2 level, after all; he was second in Barney Roy’s Greenham, and I thought he was a little unlucky (although he wouldn’t have won) in Churchill’s Guineas.

As a three-year-old he’ll get a bit of weight from his elders, and hopefully Godolphin can get the tactics right. Bear in mind this horse touched 1.04 in-running at Newbury when he was picked off by Barney Roy.

This means you should look to chuck in a low lay as some insurance. He’ll have a chance at a quick track and with an official rating of 113 from Ascot he could still be top drawer. It may be as a sprinter, but this looks a perfect race for him.

Recommended Bets:
Back Dream Castle ante-post 9/1 generally and use the “Keep Bets” option on Betfair to lay him in-running (maybe 2.02) to hopefully cover the stakes should he make a bold bid for glory.

Click here to read on and find out what Nick fancies from Saturdays Big Races.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 29th July’17
Ascot 3.00pm
A good trends race and those that tick most boxes are Fastnet Tempest, Remarkable and Makzeem. The latter is 7lb well in and if the handicapper has got that right then it would be no surprise goes very close. Stall 1 could be a stumbling block so with that in mind Yuften would be my each way choice given his form at Ascot and he would be dangerous to dismiss.
Yuften @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, B365)
Fastnet Tempest @7/1
Remarkable @11/1
Makzeem @8/1

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Out of the box Profits!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 22nd July’17)

Last time around we highlighted an interesting article in the brand new Insiders Members Report (Issue 147) in which author Gary Boswell disclosed a number of “micro systems” that he successfully uses with our Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s tips and s*ds law dictated that the one we selected to feature had a rare blank day on Saturday. Of course one of the others regarding Chester racecourse landed a cracking big priced winner from the only selection at the track!

Here is a reminder of what prompted Nick to recommend the gg in question:-

Chester 4.40pm
Storm King won over C&D in May and his subsequent form figures of 998 don’t tell the whole story. Two of those defeats were at Epsom where it is easier to come back to the field when out in front compared to this tight track. I think he is overpriced as he is only a couple of pounds higher than when winning here in May.
Storm King @22/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3 places, BFSB) – WON 12/1

And the Racing Post noted after the race “STORM KING, whose last win came over C&D off 2lb lower, was never too far away and kept on gamely once asked to quicken off the final bend. It was a fine performance under top weight.”

You can find out more about Nick’s Big Race winning methods here.

Each month the Insiders Members Report is packed with new angles and strategies that arm the reader with the tools to improve their P&L and often the articles come about by the author “thinking outside of the box”.

In the current edition (Issue 147) Josh Wright (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk) introduces his piece by explaining that he had never previously considered “Jockeys specialising over a certain course and distance but he had been inspired by Jamie Spencer’s exploits over the straight 8f at Ascot.

At the recent Royal Ascot meeting Spencer managed to manoeuvre the Sandringham Handicap winner Con Te Partiro (Won 20/1) from last place at halfway to lead 50 yards from the finish. The following day in the Brittania Stakes he repeated the trick on Bless Him (Won 25/1).

Having been stimulated by those remarkable results Josh fired up his research database and discovered no less than 17…that’s right 17 profitable Jockey C&D traits. Since publication the Insiders Club members have been able to follow the progress of the qualifiers on a dedicated community/forum thread and to date these are the results…

Won 10/1, Won 3/1, Unplaced 7/2, 2nd 9/2 (adv EW 9/1) and 2nd 10/1 (adv EW 12/1).

Early days but 2 winners and another 2 placers from 5 qualifiers is quite a start!

The research covered a period of 2012 to date and suggested a winning Strike Rate of better than 1 in 3 and over 640pts at Betfair SP from 443 bets.

One of the Micro Methods involves Jockey Richard Kingscote and he is down to ride La Celebs Ville in the 18.30pm at Haydock on Saturday night. Josh’s findings with this particular Jock was that when his mounts at this track attract support in the live market (10 mins to the off) they invariably run well. With that in mind it will be interesting to see what price the horse is when the books price up overnight and what happens trackside just prior to the off.

If your current punting activities are not delivering the kind of profit that you would hope for then now is the perfect time to make a change for the better and check out the comprehensive package available from the Betting Insiders Club.

https://bettinginsiders.com

Now over to Nick to see what has caught his eye from Saturdays Big Races.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 22nd July’17

Market Rasen 2.10pm
The trends point to the younger horses with a top 4 finish LTO. That leaves six possibilities but that is narrowed down to five when you consider no horse has lugged more than 11-10 to win this. 14 of the last 18 winners came from the front 5 in the betting. Those to the fore in the market do not qualify so I’ll take a punt on the progressive pair Mystic Sky and Star Foot an each way price.
Star Foot @10/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3 places)
Mystic Sky @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Sky)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve