Fancy an Acca?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th Feb’17)
Last weekend’s featured race proved to be elusive on the winner front after More Bucks fell and Singlefarmpayment who had been creeping closer was unfortunately brought down 5 from home. The eventual winner, Royal Vacation, looks to be heading to the Cheltenham Festival with connections mentioning the RSA Chase after his impressive win at the track.

You can’t win them all, in fact our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, drew a blank at the Cheltenham meeting but his approach of tackling the better quality races, wherever they are run, ultimately proved to be profitable once again thanks to weekend winners such as Mia’s Storm (adv EW 16/1), Upsilon Bleu (adv 7/1) and Tonto’s Spirit (adv EW 16/1).

How to Race Profile for ProfitYou can find out more about Nick’s methods in this interesting video.

For the coming weekend the Insiders Club Big Race Coverage features the Irish Grand National Trial over at Punchestown on Sunday so by way of a change for a flutter on Saturday we have an interesting football piece which was recently published in the Members Report, over to Liam:-

Football Punting – Goals Down Under
If, like me, you will literally give any football match shown on television a quick look (and you have access to BT Sport), then you are bound to have come across the A League in Australia. The standard leaves a lot to be desired, but those Aussies sure serve up plenty of entertainment.

Melbourne City and Perth Glory are currently fourth and fifth in the table – two teams that do not look like mounting a championship challenge, nor do they appear to be under threat of relegation. But what they do provide is goals, and lots of them. They are a dream for the both teams to score market.

At the time of writing the two sides have contested 12 league matches, and they and their opposition have both found the net in 10 of them. So, it was no surprise when they faced off on December 27th, the game ended in a 3-3 draw – certainly more entertaining than I expect Southampton and Leicester to be later this month.

Two other teams that you probably know much more about that are worth backing in this particular market are Werder Bremen and Valencia. Both teams have scored in 14 of 16 matches involving the German side, while for the Spaniards it’s 13 from 15 – both comfortably over 85%.

Long story short, a weekly both teams to score accumulator including matches involving Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Werder Bremen and Valencia is likely to pay out more often that it does not.

This weekend the above highlighted teams are playing as follows:

Sat 4th
(0850) Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1100) Perth Glory v Newcastle (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1945) Valencia v Eibar (Btts – Gen 4/6)

Sun 5th
(1430) Augsburg v Werder Bremen (Btts – Gen 4/5)

Now using the generally available odds the 4 leg acca combining each match “both teams to score – Yes” works out at a shade over 11/2 (Decimal 6.76) or you could play it as 4 trebles and 1 acca at split stakes. For the latter if 3 of the 4 come in you won’t be far off covering your outlay. Decision time….be bold or play it safer? Your call!!

Of course it wouldn’t be a regular weekend without a few Saturday snippets from the Big Race Guru himself so click here to read on and grab some of Nicks free selections:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 4th Feb
Sandown 3.00pm
This might take some getting if the ground remains heavy so I am going with a couple at big prices, who act on the ground, get the trip and have proven stamina. First up is Desert Sensation for Dr Richard Newland. He has 5 lengths to find with Rolling Dylan but is 5lbs better off so there should not be much between them. Ballyculla has been chasing for the last few seasons but is well handicapped on his old hurdles form and he gets a feather weight with a 7lb claimer on board.
Ballyculla @25/1 (EW 1/5 odds, 4 places, Sky/PP)
Desert Sensation @9/1 Gen

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Sports Betting Pays: England corners and a Saturday double

Today I’ve got footy tips for the weekend and a money back offer for if you want more sports tips.

The offer will let you try James Pacheco’s Sports betting Pays service for just £1.

And if you don’t like it you can have your pound back 🙂

Join now and you can get James’ other bets for this weekend.

Here’s the link

http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/trial-offer/

And here’s James with footy bets for tomorrow…

Two winning doubles out of two to the free list last week to return a profit of 3.71 points. Let’s see if we can strike again this week.

In the England match I don’t really know what to expect. England have been awful for a while now but then again, Scotland are pretty poor too and this just might be the game that England finally rise to the occasion. But might isn’t good enough. I’d rather go with what I know. If Bournemouth and Napoli are corners bankers at club level, then so are England at international level.

Go figure why, because they play the same 4-3-3 system that just about everyone else does. But the stats don’t lie and they managed over 7.5 corners in five of their last six matches. And that included matches away from home (or neutral venues) and against better sides than Scotland.

On Saturday I think Croatia are a bit of a banker against Iceland. I loved Iceland’s fairytale run at Euro 2016 as much as the next person but I think they had their moment in the sun and will struggle to replicate that togetherness and form for a while.

Croatia away is one of the toughest challenges in football and the fit-again duo of Modric and Rakitic in midfield should be enough to deliver a Croatia win one way or another. And I’m putting that together with over 2.5 goals in Wales v Serbia. I’m not entirely sure why the bookies keep on thinking Serbia are an ‘unders’ side (some of you will remember us backing over 2.5 goals in their previous match against Austria at 2.3, it finished 3-2) given six of their last seven have had over 2.5 goals but that’s fine by me. 

Wales have key absences in defence and Vokes, Ramsey and Bale in attack so even though their overs stats aren’t as good as Serbia’s, I see no reason for this match not to produce at least three goals.

 2pts Back England Over 7.5 Team Corners @ 2.0 with Bet365

http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=69173104&stf=1

1pt Double (Acca bet) on Croatia to beat Iceland  (1.4) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/croatia-v-iceland/winner+ Over 2.5 goals in Wales v Serbia (2.25) with Bet365/Ladbrokes/Betfred @ 3.15

By the way, James always gives a link with all his bets so members can easily find the correct market.

For more sports bets this weekend join Jamie for just a pound here  http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/trial-offer/

Two Saturday doubles

We have free footy tips courtesy of James Pacheco for the weekend.

If you want to try out James’ service totally risk free you can take his £1 trial with a full money back guarantee.

Here’s the link http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/trial-offer/

Here’s James…

First up, I’m going to go with two PL outsiders to avoid defeat. The first is Burnley who are actually a pretty solid price to win at 3.35 and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them to do that. But I’m a little worried about just how few shots on target they have a game- an average of just 2 a match so far- that’s the only thing that puts me off backing them outright. On the plus side they’re in much better form than Palace and will be on a high after that remarkable 0-0 at Old Trafford last week so expect them to at least take a point.

And I think it’s a similar story with Stoke at West Ham. The Hammers clearly don’t like their new home and are out of form themselves. I’m not entirely sure what happened with Stoke at the start of the season but they’re now looking like the consistent side who is going to be in this division for the long haul. They already look a far better side with Joe Allen playing in the number 10 position and now that he’s got the monkey off his back, I think Wilfried Bony could kick on from here and provide Stoke with the goals they were craving up to a few weeks ago. A 1-1 draw sounds about right to me in terms of how this could end and that would do us just fine.

The second theme is for two teams to win two slightly different corners battles. How’s this for a stat: Napoli have had more corners than their opponents in 10 of their 11 Serie games so far, including all five at home. That’s unlikely to change when Lazio come to town and even though the latter have a decent record at corners themselves, it’s not in Napoli’s league.

Those who have been following this service for a while should know about another team who has an 100% record at getting more corners than their opponents at home so far. Yes, it’s Bournemouth. The bookies are obviously aware of this and are making them just 1.14 against Sunderland to get more corners and even though it’s a double, I’m not going to put that sort of price up as a selection. Instead, I’m going to push the boat out a bit and back them to defy a -3.5 corner handicap, meaning the Cherries have to get four or more corners than Sunderland for our bet to win. This could well be touch and go but Sunderland’s corners record is poor, having lost all their corners battle away from home so far this season. If the game goes the way I expect it to, with Bournemouth having the majority of the ball and getting the ball out wide as much as possible, we could well be in business.

1pt Back Burnley on the Double Chance market ( 1.62) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/burnley-v-crystal-palace/double-chance + Stoke on the Double Chance market (1.91) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-stoke/double-chance @ 3.09 with Bet365

1pt Back Napoli to get most corners in the corner match bet (http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=84126798091&stf=1 (1.5) + Bournemouth -3.5 on Asian Handicap corners market (1.75) http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=84126798091&stf=1 @ 2.62 with Bet365

 

Benteke and the Cross-Country Double

Been a bit of a case of feast or famine over the past few weeks but that’s just the way it goes sometimes. But with the Premier League back, I’m hoping it’s at least a hearty meal if not as full blown feast.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Crystal Palace outright, so poor have West Ham been for no particularly good reason. Well, I say that. They have been missing Andy Carroll (love him or hate him he’s always a handful), the excellent Aaron Cresswell and Andre Ayew though the latter was only bought this summer so they can’t have got used to him being around too much and for that reason can’t be missing him too much. I can also understand that they’ve found it difficult at their new stadium but none of that completely explains how disappointing they’ve been.

But I’ll show the great Dimitri Payet a little bit of respect because he can win any game by himself and instead side with a Palace goalscorer given that West Ham have kept exactly one clean sheet in seven attempts in the Premier League this season.

It’s the obvious one but he’s a pretty good price.

I advised a bet on Christian Benteke to score when Palace beat Stoke 4-1 and he somehow managed not to…before going to score in his next two Premier League matches, followed by a World record for scoring the fastest ever goal in World Cup qualifying (after just seven seconds) as part of a hat-trick against Gibraltar. So he certainly can’t be accused of not being in form. He’s worth a punt at 2.38.

Just a quick summary of our weekend bets so far: there’s Chelsea to get more than 1.5 cards against Leicester, Chadli and Rondon to score for West Brom and Benteke to score for Crystal Palace.

And I’ve got one more for Saturday’s action.

Napoli are in action against Roma on Saturday afternoon and there are few sides in football who are as much of a banker for a high corner count as Roma. They don’t get quite as many away from home as they do at home but it’s still two from three away from home to go with the four from home that have gone over 10.5 corners. Napoli’s stats aren’t quite as impressive as Roma’s but again, it’s still four from seven of their matches that have gone over 10.5 corners. But it’s Roma’s stats that I’m really relying on and there’s no way than any match they’re involved in should have over 10.5 corners at 2.0.

And I’ll double that up with what appears a very obvious bet but that doesn’t stop it being a decent one. I like Everton and I think Koeman is definitely the right man for the job but what their good start to the season doesn’t really reflect is how easy their fixtures have been so far. Of their seven games to date, only Tottenham are a side you’d expect to finish in the Top 8, let alone Top 4. And they drew that one at home 1-1, which you’ll remember was a 6.5 winner for us on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.

With Aguero fully fit after an injury scare last week and the possibility of the wonderful Kevin de Bruyne involved, this could end up being pretty straightforward for a side with an 100% record at home against one that the jury is still out about.

1pt Back Christian Benteke to score anytime @ 2.38 with Bet365/Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-west-ham/anytime-goalscorer

1pt Back over 10.5 corners in Napoli v Roma (2.0)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/napoli-v-roma/total-corners

+ Manchester City to beat Everton (1.5)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/man-city-v-everton/winner

@ 3.0 with Bet365

 

Liverpool Defence – Creaky?

Sigurdsson and Fer eyeing up creaky Liverpool defence

It’s been a tough few weeks with the free tips I’ve given (luckily the members tips are doing  well) but we’re still way ahead so let’s try to get back to winning ways here.

Liverpool are looking like one of the most exciting sides in Europe when they go forward with endless players running at pace and six or seven players in the side capable of scoring a goal at anytime. Jurgen Klopp has a really tough job on his hands- deciding who to leave out from his star-studded attacking options.

And it’s a good thing his side are scoring lots of goals because clean sheets are a rarity for them. Swansea have a habit of raising their game when the big sides come to town and I fancy them to nick one here but with the price on both teams to score not particularly appealing, it might pay to try to find a potential Swansea goalscorer instead.

Gylfi Sigurdsson has served us well in the past in these type of games, including when we backed him at a tasty price against Chelsea, when he scored his only goal of the season so far. The Swansea chief set piece taker always has a couple of chances at some stage and might also benefit from playing against a side that closes down incredibly quickly but has a habit of losing runners, especially those like Sigurdsson, who play in between the lines.

It’s also worth going with Leroy Fer. He’s actually the side’s leading goalscorer with three and looks far too big a price at 8.0 to grab a fourth against a side with such a poor track record for keeping clean sheets.

The best bet in the Premier league this weekend may however lie in a far more obscure market. Bournemouth have an excellent record when it comes to winning corners. They’ve won the corners battle in all three of their home games and in one of their their away games with a tie against Man City. As if that record wasn’t good enough, they’re playing a side who has had more corners than their opponents in just one of their six games so far. Given how poor Watford were at burnley on Monday night it may be that they’re on the back foot here for much of the game. Either way, the stats don’t lie and 2.1 looks a very decent price about Bournemouth winning the corners battle once again.

1pt Back Gylfi Sigurdsson to score @ 5.0 with Betfred

1pt Back Leroy Fer to score @ 8.0 with Bet365

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/swansea-v-liverpool/anytime-goalscorer

2pts Back Bournemouth in the most corners market against Watford @ 2.1 with Bet365/Paddypower

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-bournemouth/most-corners