FA Cup Value Punt?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 27th May’17)
The minor dip in form for the free big race selections continued with last week’s picks only managing a 2nd and close up 5th place in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. The free ones are a sample of our big race guru, Nick Hardman’s, weekend coverage and sod’s law dictates that we may go for the wrong race from time to time! Overall Nick’s followers are having a profitable time of it from the current campaign which has now reached just shy of +180 points profit combined with a respectable +15% ROI.

If you enjoy the satisfaction of nailing a big priced winner of the weekend’s feature races you may be interested to view this video in which Nick’s method is detailed.

On Saturday in addition to some decent horse racing action there is the small matter of the FA Cup final from Wembley and the bookies have Chelsea priced up around 2/5 to lift the trophy against Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal. Logic points out, barring a boring 0-0 and penalties, that to achieve that they will score at least once and the clear odds on favourite in the “anytime goalscorer” market is the blues Diego Costa (Generally 4/5 – 5/6).

However in the recently published Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 145) our longstanding football pundit (and Chelsea fan) Mark Foley offers some insights into an alternative to putting your hard earned on Costa. In fact in his article he provided numerous angles to potentially profit from the goal scorer market and here is an extract that is relevant to Saturday’s big clash:-

Flat-track bullies and how to profit from them?

Love him or hate him it is undeniable that Diego Costa has scored a lot of goals in just under three seasons. Everton, Lukaku’s present team, will be glad to see the back of Costa; he has 4 goals in 4 games against The Toffees in the league (1 opening goal, 1 last goal). He must have something against Scousers; both of his goals against Liverpool (in 4 league games) have been the last goal of the game.

A similar story against Arsenal (2 in 5, where both of his goals were the final goal).
The Spaniard/Brazilian has only played 3 league games against Man U and his injury time equalizer at The Bridge last season remains his only goal against The Red Devils. He has had a tougher time against Spurs and City, (1 in 4 and 1 in 5 respectively).

So 7 league goals in 21 games against the other teams in the big 6 and 4 in 4 against Everton. Lower than his overall average, but then again that is to be expected against tougher opposition.

Alternative:
Eden Hazard offers better value than Costa in the scoring markets and has come into his own especially this season.

He has scored twice against Man City as well as finding the net against United, he has also scored a brace against Everton and possibly the goal of the season against Arsenal. More importantly, he has developed a penchant for scoring the opening goal in the big games.

His career record against the top sides is impressive – 4 in 10 against Spurs (and one for good measure in the recent FA cup semi); 3 in 9 against Man City, (all of them either the 1st or last goal); 3 in 9 against Liverpool and 3 in 10 against Arsenal. Add another two against Everton and United and he is one of the few players to have scored the opening goal at least once against all the top sides. A record of 15 goals in 47 games against the other top 6 sides is an outstanding return for a midfielder.

So instead of backing Costa at odds on to score against the Gunners Eden Hazard at 2/1 with Boyles (6/4 Paddy Power) could be the value call given the above info.

Click here to read on and grab a sample of Nick Hardman’s Big Race selections from the racing action on Saturday.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 27th May’17
York 3.50pm
Copper Knight did the business for us at Chester and showed blistering speed that day. I am hoping he does not turn out to be just a Chester specialist and is worth backing in this. Soie D’Leau has good form in these types of races and is not out of this while Caspian Prince would be a danger to all if back to anywhere near his best.

Copper Knight @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Soie D’Leau @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Caspian Prince @22/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

A Hat trick of Big Priced Winners?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 15th April’17)
Hot on the heels of landing the Lincoln Handicap winner Bravery at 20/1 the Insiders Club Big Race Guru nailed a 1-2 in the Grand National! Below is a snapshot of why Nick went for the winning selections at Aintree based on the key trends which we detailed in last week’s newsletter…

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 8th April’17
Aintree 5.15pm
The Big One. The trends leave us looking at just five horses the best of whom appear to be Cause Of Causes and Ucello Conti. The other two I like are One For Arthur and Highland Lodge. If the latter stays I think he has a great chance.

Ucello Conti @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Cause Of Causes @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places) – 2nd 16/1
One For Arthur @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places) – Won 14/1
Highland Lodge @28/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)

You can find out more about the method that Nick uses to find these Big Race selections on this interesting video.

Saturday’s racing features the Challenger Series Finals Day which take place at Haydock Park. The Challenger Series has been running across 35 racecourses throughout the core part of the 2016/17 Jump season and was designed for horses rated between 0-135 and offers excellent prize money for the middle tier of Jump racing.

Each Series Final is a Class 2 Handicap with a total prize fund of £50,000 and £30,950 for the winner. The total Series prize fund for the Finals is therefore £300,000.

A little later you can find out what has caught the attention of Nick from the aforementioned meeting but just before that we have a football snippet from one of our regular contributors to the Insiders Club Members Report. In the original article published recently Liam made a strong case for the first leg of the Europa League tie between Anderlecht v Man Utd to end in a draw at 12/5 and the readers were rewarded with a 1-1 result from Thursday’s match.

Over to Liam Apicella:-
They say you should never bet on the team that you support. If anything, do the opposite and bet against them, then at least if the match result lets you down, there is at least the solace of some money in your back pocket. Here, though, I have decided to go against that old adage. It has probably become clear by now that Manchester United is my team, and I have spent some time looking at some potential money-making angles. So, here goes.

Corners
Man United corners ever since the day I saw Phil Jones take them at Queens Park Rangers. For all those England fans, trust me that is much worse than seeing Harry Kane line one up in the Euros!

Anyway, thankfully Mr Jones is no longer on corner duty, which is just as well because United win a bucket load. On average, games at Old Trafford have 11 corners, so backing over 10 in home matches is well worth considering. This is particularly true when United are up against the smaller clubs when they have plenty of possession.

The full-backs get forward and look to cross the ball, forcing the defenders to block the ball and often turn it behind for a corner. For example, against Bournemouth and Burnley this season, United won 15 and 19 respectively. It was 13 versus Stoke and 12 when Middlesbrough visited.

Now Chelsea aren’t exactly a “smaller club” but they visit Old Trafford on Sunday and the Over 10.5 corners can be backed at better than evens with a number of bookmakers such as Stan James, 32Red and 888Sport.

Click here to read on and find a few of Nick’s selections from Saturdays Challenger Series Finals Day at Haydock.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 15th April’17
Haydock 2.40pm
Tom George won this last year with No Duffer and has two live chances again this time around.
Behind The Wire @13/2
Moss On The Mill @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Haydock 5.30pm
The stayers race on the card and two who appeal are Kilbree Chief who will have no stamina worries and Courtown Oscar who is in fine form and who should also see out the trip well.
Courtown Oscar @6/1
Kilbree Chief @7/1

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Fancy an Acca?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th Feb’17)
Last weekend’s featured race proved to be elusive on the winner front after More Bucks fell and Singlefarmpayment who had been creeping closer was unfortunately brought down 5 from home. The eventual winner, Royal Vacation, looks to be heading to the Cheltenham Festival with connections mentioning the RSA Chase after his impressive win at the track.

You can’t win them all, in fact our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, drew a blank at the Cheltenham meeting but his approach of tackling the better quality races, wherever they are run, ultimately proved to be profitable once again thanks to weekend winners such as Mia’s Storm (adv EW 16/1), Upsilon Bleu (adv 7/1) and Tonto’s Spirit (adv EW 16/1).

How to Race Profile for ProfitYou can find out more about Nick’s methods in this interesting video.

For the coming weekend the Insiders Club Big Race Coverage features the Irish Grand National Trial over at Punchestown on Sunday so by way of a change for a flutter on Saturday we have an interesting football piece which was recently published in the Members Report, over to Liam:-

Football Punting – Goals Down Under
If, like me, you will literally give any football match shown on television a quick look (and you have access to BT Sport), then you are bound to have come across the A League in Australia. The standard leaves a lot to be desired, but those Aussies sure serve up plenty of entertainment.

Melbourne City and Perth Glory are currently fourth and fifth in the table – two teams that do not look like mounting a championship challenge, nor do they appear to be under threat of relegation. But what they do provide is goals, and lots of them. They are a dream for the both teams to score market.

At the time of writing the two sides have contested 12 league matches, and they and their opposition have both found the net in 10 of them. So, it was no surprise when they faced off on December 27th, the game ended in a 3-3 draw – certainly more entertaining than I expect Southampton and Leicester to be later this month.

Two other teams that you probably know much more about that are worth backing in this particular market are Werder Bremen and Valencia. Both teams have scored in 14 of 16 matches involving the German side, while for the Spaniards it’s 13 from 15 – both comfortably over 85%.

Long story short, a weekly both teams to score accumulator including matches involving Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Werder Bremen and Valencia is likely to pay out more often that it does not.

This weekend the above highlighted teams are playing as follows:

Sat 4th
(0850) Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1100) Perth Glory v Newcastle (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1945) Valencia v Eibar (Btts – Gen 4/6)

Sun 5th
(1430) Augsburg v Werder Bremen (Btts – Gen 4/5)

Now using the generally available odds the 4 leg acca combining each match “both teams to score – Yes” works out at a shade over 11/2 (Decimal 6.76) or you could play it as 4 trebles and 1 acca at split stakes. For the latter if 3 of the 4 come in you won’t be far off covering your outlay. Decision time….be bold or play it safer? Your call!!

Of course it wouldn’t be a regular weekend without a few Saturday snippets from the Big Race Guru himself so click here to read on and grab some of Nicks free selections:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 4th Feb
Sandown 3.00pm
This might take some getting if the ground remains heavy so I am going with a couple at big prices, who act on the ground, get the trip and have proven stamina. First up is Desert Sensation for Dr Richard Newland. He has 5 lengths to find with Rolling Dylan but is 5lbs better off so there should not be much between them. Ballyculla has been chasing for the last few seasons but is well handicapped on his old hurdles form and he gets a feather weight with a 7lb claimer on board.
Ballyculla @25/1 (EW 1/5 odds, 4 places, Sky/PP)
Desert Sensation @9/1 Gen

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Sports Betting Pays: England corners and a Saturday double

Today I’ve got footy tips for the weekend and a money back offer for if you want more sports tips.

The offer will let you try James Pacheco’s Sports betting Pays service for just £1.

And if you don’t like it you can have your pound back 🙂

Join now and you can get James’ other bets for this weekend.

Here’s the link

http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/trial-offer/

And here’s James with footy bets for tomorrow…

Two winning doubles out of two to the free list last week to return a profit of 3.71 points. Let’s see if we can strike again this week.

In the England match I don’t really know what to expect. England have been awful for a while now but then again, Scotland are pretty poor too and this just might be the game that England finally rise to the occasion. But might isn’t good enough. I’d rather go with what I know. If Bournemouth and Napoli are corners bankers at club level, then so are England at international level.

Go figure why, because they play the same 4-3-3 system that just about everyone else does. But the stats don’t lie and they managed over 7.5 corners in five of their last six matches. And that included matches away from home (or neutral venues) and against better sides than Scotland.

On Saturday I think Croatia are a bit of a banker against Iceland. I loved Iceland’s fairytale run at Euro 2016 as much as the next person but I think they had their moment in the sun and will struggle to replicate that togetherness and form for a while.

Croatia away is one of the toughest challenges in football and the fit-again duo of Modric and Rakitic in midfield should be enough to deliver a Croatia win one way or another. And I’m putting that together with over 2.5 goals in Wales v Serbia. I’m not entirely sure why the bookies keep on thinking Serbia are an ‘unders’ side (some of you will remember us backing over 2.5 goals in their previous match against Austria at 2.3, it finished 3-2) given six of their last seven have had over 2.5 goals but that’s fine by me. 

Wales have key absences in defence and Vokes, Ramsey and Bale in attack so even though their overs stats aren’t as good as Serbia’s, I see no reason for this match not to produce at least three goals.

 2pts Back England Over 7.5 Team Corners @ 2.0 with Bet365

http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=69173104&stf=1

1pt Double (Acca bet) on Croatia to beat Iceland  (1.4) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/croatia-v-iceland/winner+ Over 2.5 goals in Wales v Serbia (2.25) with Bet365/Ladbrokes/Betfred @ 3.15

By the way, James always gives a link with all his bets so members can easily find the correct market.

For more sports bets this weekend join Jamie for just a pound here  http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/trial-offer/

Two Saturday doubles

We have free footy tips courtesy of James Pacheco for the weekend.

If you want to try out James’ service totally risk free you can take his £1 trial with a full money back guarantee.

Here’s the link http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/trial-offer/

Here’s James…

First up, I’m going to go with two PL outsiders to avoid defeat. The first is Burnley who are actually a pretty solid price to win at 3.35 and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them to do that. But I’m a little worried about just how few shots on target they have a game- an average of just 2 a match so far- that’s the only thing that puts me off backing them outright. On the plus side they’re in much better form than Palace and will be on a high after that remarkable 0-0 at Old Trafford last week so expect them to at least take a point.

And I think it’s a similar story with Stoke at West Ham. The Hammers clearly don’t like their new home and are out of form themselves. I’m not entirely sure what happened with Stoke at the start of the season but they’re now looking like the consistent side who is going to be in this division for the long haul. They already look a far better side with Joe Allen playing in the number 10 position and now that he’s got the monkey off his back, I think Wilfried Bony could kick on from here and provide Stoke with the goals they were craving up to a few weeks ago. A 1-1 draw sounds about right to me in terms of how this could end and that would do us just fine.

The second theme is for two teams to win two slightly different corners battles. How’s this for a stat: Napoli have had more corners than their opponents in 10 of their 11 Serie games so far, including all five at home. That’s unlikely to change when Lazio come to town and even though the latter have a decent record at corners themselves, it’s not in Napoli’s league.

Those who have been following this service for a while should know about another team who has an 100% record at getting more corners than their opponents at home so far. Yes, it’s Bournemouth. The bookies are obviously aware of this and are making them just 1.14 against Sunderland to get more corners and even though it’s a double, I’m not going to put that sort of price up as a selection. Instead, I’m going to push the boat out a bit and back them to defy a -3.5 corner handicap, meaning the Cherries have to get four or more corners than Sunderland for our bet to win. This could well be touch and go but Sunderland’s corners record is poor, having lost all their corners battle away from home so far this season. If the game goes the way I expect it to, with Bournemouth having the majority of the ball and getting the ball out wide as much as possible, we could well be in business.

1pt Back Burnley on the Double Chance market ( 1.62) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/burnley-v-crystal-palace/double-chance + Stoke on the Double Chance market (1.91) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-stoke/double-chance @ 3.09 with Bet365

1pt Back Napoli to get most corners in the corner match bet (http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=84126798091&stf=1 (1.5) + Bournemouth -3.5 on Asian Handicap corners market (1.75) http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=84126798091&stf=1 @ 2.62 with Bet365