Liverpool Defence – Creaky?

Sigurdsson and Fer eyeing up creaky Liverpool defence

It’s been a tough few weeks with the free tips I’ve given (luckily the members tips are doing  well) but we’re still way ahead so let’s try to get back to winning ways here.

Liverpool are looking like one of the most exciting sides in Europe when they go forward with endless players running at pace and six or seven players in the side capable of scoring a goal at anytime. Jurgen Klopp has a really tough job on his hands- deciding who to leave out from his star-studded attacking options.

And it’s a good thing his side are scoring lots of goals because clean sheets are a rarity for them. Swansea have a habit of raising their game when the big sides come to town and I fancy them to nick one here but with the price on both teams to score not particularly appealing, it might pay to try to find a potential Swansea goalscorer instead.

Gylfi Sigurdsson has served us well in the past in these type of games, including when we backed him at a tasty price against Chelsea, when he scored his only goal of the season so far. The Swansea chief set piece taker always has a couple of chances at some stage and might also benefit from playing against a side that closes down incredibly quickly but has a habit of losing runners, especially those like Sigurdsson, who play in between the lines.

It’s also worth going with Leroy Fer. He’s actually the side’s leading goalscorer with three and looks far too big a price at 8.0 to grab a fourth against a side with such a poor track record for keeping clean sheets.

The best bet in the Premier league this weekend may however lie in a far more obscure market. Bournemouth have an excellent record when it comes to winning corners. They’ve won the corners battle in all three of their home games and in one of their their away games with a tie against Man City. As if that record wasn’t good enough, they’re playing a side who has had more corners than their opponents in just one of their six games so far. Given how poor Watford were at burnley on Monday night it may be that they’re on the back foot here for much of the game. Either way, the stats don’t lie and 2.1 looks a very decent price about Bournemouth winning the corners battle once again.

1pt Back Gylfi Sigurdsson to score @ 5.0 with Betfred

1pt Back Leroy Fer to score @ 8.0 with Bet365

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/swansea-v-liverpool/anytime-goalscorer

2pts Back Bournemouth in the most corners market against Watford @ 2.1 with Bet365/Paddypower

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-bournemouth/most-corners

Free Profitable Big Race Tips!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 17th Sept’16)
Last time around the Insiders Club “Big Race Guru” Nick Hardman took on the ultra competitive Portland Handicap on the final day of the Doncaster St Leger Festival and his three big priced EW fancies fared pretty well!

Humidor (2nd 20/1) looked like winning when hitting the front but edged to his right and couldn´t hold on from the strong finishing winner Captain Colby, whilst close up in third place was one of Nick’s other fancies Harry Hurricane (adv EW 14/1). Placing 1/2pt EW on each brought a return of +75% profits on the 3pts staked so a decent return without nabbing the winner.

In these big field very open looking contests Nick will often go with more than one against the field especially if his selections can be backed at double figure odds as seen above, even grabbing a place can cover stakes and some which helps keep the bank ticking over nicely between the winners!

Race Profile Example Welsh Grand NationalYou can find out how Nick goes about landing a steady and consistent flow of value priced big race winners and placers in this video which explains his profitable methods.

For the coming weekend the Insiders Club “Big Race coverage” will feature the quality card at Ayr which includes the Gold & Silver Cups supported by the Firth of Clyde Group 3 and all the other races are Class 3 or better. These are food and drink with Nicks methods and a little later we will be sharing a sample of his approach and resultant selections.

In the meantime we have Jamie Pacheco’s (http://sportsbettingpays.uk) thoughts on one of the weekend’s Premier League football matches:-

Mike Dean’s penalty obsession
At the start of the season there was a directive from the Referees’ Association concerning defenders grabbing opponents’ shirts in the box. It went something like this: ‘’If a defender is playing the man rather than the ball, has eyes for the player rather than the ball and stops the attacking player from getting to the ball or trying to get to the ball…give a penalty.’’

Now the easy thing to do is pretty much ignore that and if there’s a dodgy incident of that nature, just say you didn’t see it. But Mike Dean is a man who marches to the beat of a different drum.

He’s decided that if there’s any nonsense in the box, he’s giving a foul against the attacker (just like he was told to) if he’s the perpetrator… or a penalty if the defender is the guilty party. And that doesn’t just apply to incidents at corners. So far this season Mike Dean has awarded four penalties – one for Leicester against Hull, one for each side when Stoke played Man City (incidentally both were holding in the box at a corner) and one for Palace at home to Bournemouth. Coincidence? Four penalties in three matches?

The nice thing about this bet is that even though my theory on penalties given for grabbing/wrestling/shoving at corners doesn’t prove true, there’s still a chance a penalty could be awarded for a more traditional offence- blatant handball in the box, keeper takes the striker out, winger tripped up as he runs into the box etc. This weekend Mike Dean is in charge of Tottenham v Sunderland and if you shop around there is quite a range of prices available on him awarding a penalty during the match!

In our opinion it is this kind of “thinking outside of the box” 🙂 that allows Jamie to find value sports bets that may still be under the radar of most of us. You can find out more about his service along with a discount offer here – http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk/last-chance/

Click here to read on and find a gem or two from Nick Hardman’s weekend Big Race Selections:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 17rd Sept
Ayr 3.45pm
Orion’s Bow ticks plenty of boxes from a trends perspective and had been in terrific form up until a slightly below par effort at Ripon last time out. A danger to all if bouncing back. Poyle Vinnie was second in this last year off 4lbs higher and looks set for a big run.
I am also taking a chance on Absolutely So off top weight for Andrew Balding who won this with Highland Colori in 2013. Arrives on the back of an excellent run in the Wokingham.
Orion’s Bow @12/1 1/2pt e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Poyle Vinnie @20/1 1/2pt e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Absolutely So @16/1 1/2pt e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Newmarket 3.50pm
Cesarewitch trial and I tend to go with the dual purpose horses over this sort of trip and Oceane has plenty in his favour. The Cashel Man has form that ties in with the main selection and could get closer with a 4lb pull but at a better price I will go with Planetoid each way. He looks to have plenty of stamina and is another with form over hurdles.
Oceane 1pt Win @4/1 generally
Plantoid @16/1 1/2pt e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Good boy Vardy, bad boy Fellaini

Looking ahead to Saturday and just about anything could happen in the Manchester derby. The absence of Sergio Aguero definitely changes the dynamic of the match a bit and if he was around I might be tempted by over 2.5 goals but he’s not, so I’m not.

I don’t think United will lose but then again, that’s somewhat stating the obvious. The only bet I’m sweet on is that Mourinho favourite Marouane Fellaini will get himself into trouble. He’s already been booked this season in the far more sedate atmosphere of Hull v Man Utd and tasked with stopping the likes of Silva, de Bruyne or Sterling, I think it’s only a matter of time before we’ll hear the commentator saying ‘’he’s taken one for the team’’ or ‘that’s just one niggly foul too many by the Belgian for Mark Clattenburg’s liking.’’

As regards Liverpool v Leicester, Liverpool have conceded six goals in three games so far and when you consider that they have a new man in Matip playing and are experimenting with a back three system, it’s not hard to understand why. I think they’ll have plenty of 3-1, 2-2, 4-2 matches this season but for the time being, I just think Jamie Vardy is too big at 3.6 to score, who by the way, scored both goals in a 2-0 win at home to Liverpool last season.

He’s been lively in all three of his matches so far and grabbed a goal last time out. The thing about someone like him is that he’s always in the game, always involved, always on the lookout. It’s also important to note that Riyad Mahrez got to take the penalty awarded against Hull. Charitable bloke that Vardy is, he also let him take the next one against Swansea (they took turns last season) but the Algerian missed. If they do get one, my money is on Vardy stepping up. These things can sometimes make all the difference.

1pt Back Maroune Fellaini to be shown a card in Manchester Utd v Manchester City @ 2.3 with Paddypower

1pt Back Jamie Vardy to score anytime against Liverpool @ 3.6 with Bet365

 

 

Leicester to start the season in style

A profit again last week with our bigger cricket bet coming good which made up for our smaller football one…not doing so.

Community Shield time on Sunday afternoon, the appetiser for the Premier League season.

The question as ever is not, who is the most likely winner but rather: are the prices correct?

Manchester United look too short for me on both the match odds market and the ‘’to lift the trophy’’ market.

Let’s remember that United finished 15 points adrift of Leicester last season in the league and whereas that was something of a freakish season in terms of Leicester over-achieving and United under-achieving, it’s relevant nonetheless. After all, this is the same Leicester under the same manager and with every single player who won the title still around, bar N’Golo Kante. Yes, he’ll be sorely missed but a central midfield of Anders Herrera and Michael Carrick is hardly the kind that could seriously expose his absence in this particular match.

United will surely be better off under Jose Mourinho in the long run than they were under Louis van Gaal because the basics will be pretty simple (it’s the attention to detail that’s the key with Mourinho) rather than the convoluted and ever-changing tactics of the Dutchman and I think the players will like that. But that may well take time to implement and it’s not a few friendlies in the States and a Wayne Rooney testimonial streamed on Facebook that’s going to bring Mourinho any closer to knowing who his best eleven is or who fits where.

And add to the fact that Mourinho has a poor record in the Community Shield, winning it just once in five attempts. What I think that proves is that after a few players come in and others go out, he needs time before settling on team selection and tactics. That’s certainly been the pattern for him before although it doesn’’t usually stop him from winning the first league game of the season.

I’d love to be backing Leicester at around 4.5 but I do think the 90-minute draw is a very lively runner. Both matches between these two ended 1-1 last year and both teams might be more than happy to take their chances if it goes to penalties rather than desperately trying to win it 90 minutes. So it’s with good reason that I’ll take Leicester to win the trophy at 2.88 rather than the 90 minute win.

I was also very tempted to go for both teams to score but the price is short enough at around 1.9. But I’ll stick with my theory that Leicester will get at least one. They scored against United in both matches last season and have a makeshift defence for this one with no Chris Smalling (suspended) and instead a central defensive pairing made up of newbie Eric Baily and the versatile Danny Blind with Luke Shaw at left back (who hardly played at all last season) and either Antonio Valencia or Matteo Darmian at right back.

A defence that doesn’t know each other that well is the perfect situation for someone like Jaime Vardy to exploit and he doesn’t seem like the sort of man to come into a new season a bit rusty. He’s scored twice in his last four matches against Man Utd and is bigger than I thought he’d be at 3.25.

0.5pts Back Leicester to lift the trophy @ 2.88 with PaddyPower

0.25pts Back Jamie Vardy to score anytime @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

You can get more of James Pacheco’s tips and analysis here http://www.sportsbettingpays.uk

 

 

 

Yorkshire Shines

Yorkshire to shine on Friday night and goals in Sweden on Saturday afternoon

Two from two last week with wins in the Friday night cricket (Nottinghamshire at 1.8) and AIK in the Swedish Allsvenskan (2.04) to give us a profit of 1.09 points.

Some more Friday night cricket to start with and it’s Northants v Yorkshire tomorrow. Yorkshire have won their last five in a row, the latest of which was a thrashing of tomorrow’s opponents Northants. I was a little suspicious of Yorkshire and mentioned in my Sports Betting Pays service last week that they had lots of occasional and former England players like Tim Bresnan, Adam Lyth, Adil Rashid, David Willey and Liam Plunkett. But maybe I was missing the point. Bit part England players are more than good enough to be a little too good for the average county cricketer and having five or six in one team leaves you with a very well-balanced side. Add to that the explosive hitting of Aussie T20 specialist Travis Head and Yorkshire could well be one of the teams to watch on Finals day. But for the time being, they should be too good for Northants.

And on Saturday there’s more action from the Allsvenskan for us to get involved in. Norrkoping are away at Sundsvall and there are plenty of reasons to think they can take three points from his fixture, including their excellent head-to-head record in this game, in which they’ve won the last four (two home, two away) and drew the three before that. But they’re a little short for my liking at a shade of odds-against and instead I’ll go with this being a high-scoring match. Going back to 2012, four of the last five editions of this fixture featured over 3.5 goals and it’s now three of both sides’ last five matches in all competitions that have had over 3.5 goals. Norrkoping matches in the Allsvenskan this season average 3.2 goals and for Sundsvall matches average 3.07 so high-scoring games aren’t just a recent thing for both sides. At 2.5 it’s worth taking a punt we have goals again.

0.75pts Back Yorkshire to beat Northants in the T20 blast @ 1.8 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts Back Over 3.5 goals in Sundsvall v Norrkoping @ 2.5 with Bet365