20/1 Grand National Winner?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 25th March’17) It is fair to say that our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman has been having a tough time of it recently with many of his selections hitting the bar but not quite ending in the winner’s enclosure. There is a saying that “form is temporary but class is permanent” and longer term followers of Nick will be well aware that given the type of races he tackles there will be down periods but over the medium+ time frame he has a proven track record of delivering very healthy profits combined with a commendable ROI using a sensible betting bank.

It will therefore come as no surprise that last week’s free selections for the Betfred Midlands Grand National included the winner Chase The Spud (adv EW) which when given out to the Insiders Club members was available to back at 25/1 and there was plenty of 20/1 via this bulletin on the morning of the race.

The following is a quick reminder of why Nick included the horse in his pre-race summary:-

“The trends point to a horse aged 8yo or 9yo and carrying under 11st. That leaves just three in Spookydooky, Chase The Spud and Court Frontier. Spookydooky ran well in over a long trip at Exeter last time and is effectively only 2lb higher here with Killian Moore claiming 3lbs. Chase The Spud gets a massive pull in the weights from Eider Chase winner Mysteree and could turn the tables on their close Haydock running”

At the business end of the race Chase The Spud did indeed get revenge on Mysteree as he grabbed the lead on the run in to win after being backed into 11/1.

For the coming weekend there are a few decent contests due to take place at the likes of Newbury, Kelso and Lingfield and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s eye by clicking here to read on:-

Just before you do and with the Aintree Grand National only 2 weeks away you may be interested to read the thoughts of one of the regular contributors to the Insiders Members Reports, David “Chutney Dave” Massey….

“The Young Master’s prep for the National couldn’t have been more eye-catching if he’d tried. He just looked that one run short of peak fitness in the paddock and I expected him to finish midfield here, but he ran on really nicely to take sixth after getting outpaced coming down the hill. As he did last year, appears to be coming right for the spring and has to be on any National shortlist now.”

With the likes of Bet365, SkyBet and Paddy Power offering 20/1 on a non-runner no bet basis as well as paying out on the first 5 home The Young Master looks one to have on your side for the Aintree feature event.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 25th March’17

Newbury 3.00pm

Theatre Territiory represents Nicky Henderson who has won this a few times in the last 10 years. She looks a decent each-way price on her novice runs. Wizards Sliabh has a form line with Tara View and multiple scorer Ms Pafois which makes her interesting at a price too. Lamanver Odyssey looks to have been laid out for this and is a full sister to a previous winner of the race.

Lamanver Odyssey @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places) Theatre Territory @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places) Wizards Sliabh @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Thinking out of the Box for profits!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th March’17) Almost in a blink of an eye the Cheltenham Festival is over once again and as the dust settles owners, trainers and jockeys will reflect on how it panned out for them after all their planning and preparations. There were many memorable performances such as Nicky Henderson’s 1-2 in the Champion Hurdle a feat repeated in Wednesday’s RSA Chase, whilst the Willie Mullins team suffered several setbacks before their four-timer on Thursday. The Gold Cup on the final day of the Festival was won in good style by the Jessica Harrington trained Sizing John on only his 4th start since switching to the yard. Of the horses we featured from Alan Dudman’s ante-post selections in last week’s newsletter Defi Du Seuil (adv 6/1) won the Triumph in great style by 5 lengths and Native River (adv EW 14/1) finished 3rd in the aforementioned Gold Cup to ensure a healthy +54% profit overall for his followers. Amongst the comprehensive content enjoyed by members of the Betting Insiders Club are the insightful articles written by our team of industry respected authors who use their knowledge and experience to often uncover gems by “thinking outside of the box”. In the current Insiders Report (Issue 143) stats Guru Josh Wright (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk) covers a number of angles one of which focusses on a select bunch of trainers that are very adept in improving some of their horses by the careful use of “headgear”. The data that Josh presents in his research piece details 16 trainers that collectively have produced the following results in recent years:- The criteria used via the excellent horseracebase research tool to achieve the above results were as follows:- 2012 – to date Handicap Races Horse Wearing headgear today Horse last ran in Headgear (same as today) – once only Placed on last run – No Relatively fancied today, 10/1 or lower So to all intense purposes the fitting of headgear last time out did not perk up the performance resulting in an unplaced run. There is some published data to imply that the horse may have reacted negatively to the first application of the headgear, but on the second run they are more used to it and therefore may perform better on that occasion. The above stats show a better than 30% win rate in such circumstances and the profit figures are certainly at a level to take a note of. One of the trainers Josh uncovered in his research has a suitable runner entered on Saturday…. Monbeg Gold (Kemp 3.15pm) Gen 9/1 (EW, 2 places, ¼ odds) Trained by Jonjo O’Neill who has trained 13 winners from 46 runners of the type described above (28.26% Strike Rate) and last time out wore blinkers for the 1st time before finishing 5th of 13 in a decent contest at Newbury in which he ran well for a long time. Prior to that he wore cheek-pieces which are reapplied for Saturday’s race and the drop back in trip will hopefully help him run a solid race at the odds. You can find out how to grab a copy of the latest Insiders Report which contains Josh’s research piece in full along with numerous other profitable angles here. http://bettinginsiders.com In addition to Kempton Saturday’s racing action includes Midlands Grand National from Uttoxeter and to find our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, thoughts on the big race are below… Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 18th March’17 Uttoxeter 3.35pm The trends point to a horse aged 8yo or 9yo and carrying under 11st. That leaves just three in Spookydooky, Chase The Spud and Court Frontier. Spookydooky ran well in over a long trip at Exeter last time and is effectively only 2lb higher here with Killian Moore claiming 3lbs. Chase The Spud gets a massive pull in the weights from Eider Chase winner Mysteree and could turn the tables on their close Haydock running, whereas Court Frontier is the potential improver. Goulanes won this in 2014 and it would be no surprise to see him involved with a clear round. Spookydooky @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places) Court Frontier @8/1 Win (Gen) Chase The Spud @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places) Goulanes @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places) Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th March’17)

Last weekend’s Big Race selections both ran solid races with Double Shuffle just finding Pilgrims Bay too good by 1/2L in a battling finish whilst Ballykan wasn’t too far behind in 5th place. You can feel the tension building as the 2017 Cheltenham Festival looms large and with many of the main bookmakers offering Non-runner/No bet this time around we thought we would share one of Dave “Chutney” Massey’s “Three to Follow”, for the prestigious event. Three to Follow at Festival Time Solomn Grundy (Neil Mulholland) – Likely target: Pertemps Final – Gen 16/1 (EW, 4pl, 1/4 odds) – This lightly raced and improving sort is just the type that you want for a race like the Pertemps, and the good news is that, having won the Newbury qualifier back in November, he’s already qualified, however what’s less certain is whether he will get in off his current mark of 134. He showed promise for David Pipe before being moved to Neil Mulholland by Roger Brookhouse, he’s done nothing but improve since joining the team at Conkwell Grange and still appears to have plenty left to offer. Despite pulling hard at Cheltenham, he still ran on strongly to claim second behind the well-handicapped Behind Time, form that has worked out well with third home Call To Order and fourth home Ballyarthur both winners since. He was then upped in trip to 3m for that Newbury race, where he reversed form with Behind Time in no uncertain terms, despite again being very keen in rear for much of the contest. But he travelled so well through the field when making his effort in a most eye-catching style that was so impressive to watch. It marked him out as well in front of his mark too, and the form had a boost when second home Shantou Bob took a good quality contest at Chepstow recently. He lost little in defeat when dropped back in trip at Wetherby on his last start, trying to give previous winner Agincourt Reef well over a stone in weight, and only narrowly going down by a short head. The way he was outpaced there suggests the step back up to three miles will suit, and the guaranteed big field for the Pertemps will give him plenty of cover and chance to settle better. Last-to-first tactics are never easy to pull off in big races, but this horse has the talent and given luck in running, should go close. The above plus the other two of David’s trio of selections for the Festival are all priced at double figure odds and in addition to EW singles they lend themselves to a potentially lucrative multiple bet in the form of an EW “Trixie” (3 doubles & a treble) which at current odds could yield a 3K+ return to an 8 quid stake! The “Three to Follow at Festival Time” was part of the comprehensive coverage recently published in the Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 142), you can find out more here. There are some decent cards on Saturday including the jumping action from Newbury and Doncaster and to find a sample of what has caught the eye of our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, click here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 4th March’17 Newbury 3.15pm 13 of the last 14 winners have been aged 6yo to 8yo and that narrows the field to just 5 runners. Add to the fact that Paul Nicholls has won 7 of the last 9 renewals then Vibrato Valtat and More Bucks are the obvious trends horses. Vibrato Valtat @8/1 (Lad/BB) More Buck’s @12/1 (Gen) Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

Free BetBright Chase Trends/Tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 25th Feb’17) Last weekend we shared our resident Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s key trends for the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock and his final selections ran decent races to finish 3rd and 6th of the 13 that went to post. Vintage Clouds saw the longer trip out well without getting close to challenge the eventual winner and runners up whilst Kruzhlinin make a bad blunder 3 out which put paid to his chance. You can’t win them all and Nick’s followers have enjoyed a solid start to the third campaign with over 80 points profit banked in less than 2 months combined with a commendable +26% ROI. You can find out more about his winning Big Race methods in the interesting video. Once again the UK weather is taking its toll on the horse racing action with Thursday’s card at Huntingdon having to be called off, hopefully Saturdays racing will get the green light as Kempton stage a quality meeting which features the Grade 3 BetBright Handicap Chase. This particular race was covered by Nick in his Big Race Trends article for the Betting Insiders Club Report (Issue 142) and a snapshot of his findings were as follows:- BetBright Chase Kempton 3.35pm The BetBright Chase (formerly known as the Racing Post Chase and briefly known as the Racing Plus Chase) is run over 3 miles at Kempton. Outsider of the field Bally Legend won at an unfancied 28/1 in 2014 and Opening Batsman at 12/1 provided young trainer Harry Fry with his first big winner of his training career in 2013. Razor Royale at 11/1 and Nacarat at 10/1 also provided punters with double figure winners in 2010 and 2009. However, prior to Nacarat’s 2009 win we had seen a string of single priced winners (odds ranging from 3/1 to 9/1) going all the way back to Mudahim who won at 14/1 in 1997. That statistic was upheld by Rocky Creek in 2015 who duly obliged at 8/1 and 2016 winner Theatre Guide at 6/1. Eleven winners since 1997 won their previous start and 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top three places last time out. 8yo’s have the best record in the race (7-67; 10% win rate) followed by 7yo runners (3-45; 7% win rate). 9yo runners are 4-54 (7% win rate) but they include the last three winners. Four of first five home in 2015’s renewal were aged 9yo+ and the top two last year were aged 9yo and 10yo, so we may see the tide turning towards the more experienced runners. Philip Hobbs stands out a mile as the top trainer but is without a runner this time. Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2008 and 2015 and the runner up in 2014, 2013 and 2007, together with the 3rd placed horse in 2009, 2008 and 2006. Horses that have run well in this race one year often put in a good performance in following years. Two-time winner Nacarat also finished 2nd and 3rd in the two years in between his victories and Simon made a bold effort to retain his crown in 2008 (finished 4th) having won this in 2007. Bally Legend followed up his victory in 2014 with a creditable 3rd in 2015. Opening Batsman was runner-up in 2016, having won the race himself in 2013. Bally Legend bucked many trends when landing the spoils in 2014 and his winning mark of 138 was the lowest since Gunther McBride won off 120 back in 2002. I would be inclined to look further up the ratings and horses rated 143+ have been successful in 14 of the last 20 renewals. Horses rated 150+ won in 2015, 2012, 2008, 2005, 2004 and 2000. The bracket that has produced the most winners is 140 -147 which has provided us with 10 of the last 20 and 8 of those were rated 143 -147. Top weights have a remarkable record in the race. Going back to 1997 the record of top and joint-top weights reads 12033210132110102210030. Pretty impressive stuff and I would recommend making an assessment of the chances of the top weighted horse when it comes to finding a suitable selection for this race. There have been 4 winning fav’s since 1997 and a further 5 winning second fav’s. The top four in the betting have produced 15 of the last 20 winners and only two have come from outside the top six in the market in that time. Race fitness looks a strong trend with horses having had at least two seasonal starts accounting for all bar four since 1997. Interestingly horses that had had as many as 6 previous runs that season are 5-13 (38% win rate) and with 5 starts are 3-33 (9% SR). I would say a minimum of 2 seasonal runs is a starting point. Twelve winners since 1997 had previous winning form over 3 miles and further and all bar two in that time had won a race over a minimum distance of 2m 5f. Having put all that information into the melting pot we are left with the following trends: • Top 3 finish LTO (preferably LTO winner) • Previous form in the race (ideally top 4 finish) • Rated 140+ (ideally rated 143 -147) • Top 4 in the betting • Minimum 2 previous seasonal runs (ideally 5 or 6) • Won a race over 2m 5f or further (preferably 3 miles or further) • Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls Nick will be taking the above trends into consideration to help narrow down the field to a shortlist before settling on his final selection(s) for the big race. To find out what will be carrying his support click here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 25th Feb Kempton 3.35pm One from the Insiders Report and Double Shuffle ticks plenty of boxes so heads the shortlist. Ballykan also fits the bill except he is outside the top 4 in the betting but makes each-way appeal as he continues to run well. He was fourth in this last year and could well make the frame again. Double Shuffle @5/1 Gen Ballykan @12/1 e/w (3 places, 1/4 odds) Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

Can Nick follow up last weekends haul (+80pts)

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th Feb’17) Last weekend’s free tips came courtesy of our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, and all three ran solid races in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Clyne (3rd 6/1) deserves plenty of credit having chased the strong early gallop whilst Song Light (adv EW) grabbed place spoils after moving well under a ground-saving ride and only found a trio of well-handicapped performers too good. Boite was prominent for a long way and wasn’t beaten far in 8th place. As we often say you can’t win them all but Nick’s followers still enjoyed a bumper weekend with seven winners/placers from the 22 that ran and over 80pts profit to advised stakes and quoted odds. Of course we recognise that different folk will have obtained different totals depending on which books they have to work with etc. With that in mind we noted the readily available prices (at least 3 different mainstream bookies) at 8am on both Sat/Sun and even where the original top price may have been trimmed (although Perfect Candidate drifted to 12/1) from the night before when Nick posted up the selections you could still have achieved over 65pts profit. Race Profile VideoSo plenty to go around whichever way you cut it and if that has piqued your interest you may like to watch this video which describes Nick’s methods in detail. The coming weekend sees some decent jumps racing from Ascot and Haydock and it is at the latter that we turn our attention to with Nick’s Big Race Trends for the Betfred Grand National Trial:- Grand National Trial (Grade 3 handicap chase; 3m 5f); Haydock 3.15pm Sat The first thing to note is that 9 of the last 11 renewals have been run on going officially described as heavy and have favoured those carrying lighter weights. This time around the forecast going is good-soft so it may not have as much bearing as previous recent runnings. There have been 3 winning favourites since 1997 and a further 3 who were second favourite. Two of those winning fav’s came in 2013 (Well Refreshed) and in 2012 (Giles Cross). Despite that, this does appeal as a race for the each-way player with 12 of the last 19 coming from those horses who were between 5th and 8th in the betting. This is reflected by the SPs of the winners with 8 of the last 14 victorious horses being sent off at odds of 10/1 to 18/1. In recent times, Rambling Minster was the biggest priced winner at 18/1 in 2009, followed by Rigadin de Beauchene @16/1 in 2014 and Ossmoses @14/1 in 2006. Horses sent off at 14/1 to 20/1 are 3-52 and those sent off at the really big prices (22/1 or higher) are 0-55. Since the turn of the millennium the younger horses have been largely put in their place by their older counterparts with just two 7yo and three 8yo winners. Five of the last 6 have all been aged 9yo or older and the age bracket 9yo – 11yo has provided us with 11 of the last 16 winners. Another interesting statistic is that a break of at least 1 month (31 days) has benefited 15 of the last 19 winners. The number of runs in the current season appears to have little bearing on the chances of winning this race. Three horses have taken this on their seasonal bow (from the 10 that tried to do so) and horses have won this on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and even their 6th run of the season. When it comes to training a staying chaser then Venetia Williams is up there with the best. She trained the 1-2 in this race in 2014 to add to her impressive record that has seen her train the runner-up in 2013 and 2008 and the third placed horse in 2007. Not surprisingly, Paul Nicholls has a decent record in the race having trained the winner Shotgun Willy in 2003 and has since followed that with a 4th in 2005, 2nd in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and 2nd again in 2012. One trainer we have to throw into the mix is Kerry Lee who took this race last year along with the 2015 Welsh National and the 2016 Classic Chase at Warwick. All bar four of the winners since 1997 had previously raced over 3m 5f or further and 16 of the last 19 had won a race over at least 3 miles. Fourteen of the last 19 had finished in the top two last time out so it may pay to side with a horse with excellent recent form. Those that completed their last start but finished outside the top three are 1-84. There are no firm trends with regards to official ratings (OR) with horses taking this race with an OR as low as 121 and as high as 151. However the last 8 winners were all rated 129+. All that gives us a nice profile of the typical winner: • Carrying 11-0 or less (10-0 to 10-05 if the going is heavy) • Rated 129+ • Top two finish LTO • Odds between 10/1 to 18/1 • Aged 9yo to 11yo • Not raced in last 31 days • Won a race over 3m or further • Raced over 3m 5f or further • Trained by Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell or Kerry Lee Nick will be using the above trends to help with his deliberations and to find out his final selection(s) for the big race click here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 18th Feb Haydock 3.15pm Vintage Clouds was in the process of running a stormer from 6lb out of the handicap in the Peter Marsh Chase behind Bristol De Mai and Otago Trail and compensation could await. Kruzhlinin has improved remarkably since switching to Phillip Hobbs and can also go well. He won a stamina sapping hurdles race here when only a handful finished and that bodes well for this trip. Vintage Clouds @8/1 Gen Kruzhlinin @15/2 Gen Together We Can Win Darren & Steve