FA Cup Value Punt?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 27th May’17)
The minor dip in form for the free big race selections continued with last week’s picks only managing a 2nd and close up 5th place in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. The free ones are a sample of our big race guru, Nick Hardman’s, weekend coverage and sod’s law dictates that we may go for the wrong race from time to time! Overall Nick’s followers are having a profitable time of it from the current campaign which has now reached just shy of +180 points profit combined with a respectable +15% ROI.

If you enjoy the satisfaction of nailing a big priced winner of the weekend’s feature races you may be interested to view this video in which Nick’s method is detailed.

On Saturday in addition to some decent horse racing action there is the small matter of the FA Cup final from Wembley and the bookies have Chelsea priced up around 2/5 to lift the trophy against Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal. Logic points out, barring a boring 0-0 and penalties, that to achieve that they will score at least once and the clear odds on favourite in the “anytime goalscorer” market is the blues Diego Costa (Generally 4/5 – 5/6).

However in the recently published Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 145) our longstanding football pundit (and Chelsea fan) Mark Foley offers some insights into an alternative to putting your hard earned on Costa. In fact in his article he provided numerous angles to potentially profit from the goal scorer market and here is an extract that is relevant to Saturday’s big clash:-

Flat-track bullies and how to profit from them?

Love him or hate him it is undeniable that Diego Costa has scored a lot of goals in just under three seasons. Everton, Lukaku’s present team, will be glad to see the back of Costa; he has 4 goals in 4 games against The Toffees in the league (1 opening goal, 1 last goal). He must have something against Scousers; both of his goals against Liverpool (in 4 league games) have been the last goal of the game.

A similar story against Arsenal (2 in 5, where both of his goals were the final goal).
The Spaniard/Brazilian has only played 3 league games against Man U and his injury time equalizer at The Bridge last season remains his only goal against The Red Devils. He has had a tougher time against Spurs and City, (1 in 4 and 1 in 5 respectively).

So 7 league goals in 21 games against the other teams in the big 6 and 4 in 4 against Everton. Lower than his overall average, but then again that is to be expected against tougher opposition.

Eden Hazard offers better value than Costa in the scoring markets and has come into his own especially this season.

He has scored twice against Man City as well as finding the net against United, he has also scored a brace against Everton and possibly the goal of the season against Arsenal. More importantly, he has developed a penchant for scoring the opening goal in the big games.

His career record against the top sides is impressive – 4 in 10 against Spurs (and one for good measure in the recent FA cup semi); 3 in 9 against Man City, (all of them either the 1st or last goal); 3 in 9 against Liverpool and 3 in 10 against Arsenal. Add another two against Everton and United and he is one of the few players to have scored the opening goal at least once against all the top sides. A record of 15 goals in 47 games against the other top 6 sides is an outstanding return for a midfielder.

So instead of backing Costa at odds on to score against the Gunners Eden Hazard at 2/1 with Boyles (6/4 Paddy Power) could be the value call given the above info.

Click here to read on and grab a sample of Nick Hardman’s Big Race selections from the racing action on Saturday.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 27th May’17
York 3.50pm
Copper Knight did the business for us at Chester and showed blistering speed that day. I am hoping he does not turn out to be just a Chester specialist and is worth backing in this. Soie D’Leau has good form in these types of races and is not out of this while Caspian Prince would be a danger to all if back to anywhere near his best.

Copper Knight @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Soie D’Leau @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Caspian Prince @22/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Tennis and Racing tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 20th May’17)
Last week’s selections couldn’t make any impact in the Victoria Cup at Ascot which was won in tidy fashion by Fastnet Tempest as high numbers came out on top for the fourth year running.

Nick Hardman’s York Dante coverage over the last few days has seen a return to normal service with winners such as Zain Arion (adv EW) at 20/1 and Here Comes When (adv EW 16/1). You can find out more about Nick’s winning approach in this interesting video.

There are some decent meetings scheduled for Saturday with Newbury hosting the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and also Newmarket with a 7 race card although the current weather will make them tricky punting propositions with the very soft underfoot conditions.

A little later on we will be sharing a few snippets from Nicks Big Race Coverage but just before we move on to those we have a quick update on the latest news from the Betting Insiders Club.

Insiders Club news

The comprehensive Club package includes full access to Nick Hardman’s “Big Race Coverage” which has been making solid profits for just shy of 2 ½ years. Alongside these flagship tips there is a vibrant and friendly community/forum where members share their ideas and we test out new strategies in live trials. The 3rd aspect is the monthly 52 page report which contains articles written by a team of industry renowned authors such as Alan Dudman (Betting.betfair), Josh Wright (.racingtoprofit), and Andrew David (bettingdoctor).

In the brand new report (Issue 145) Gary Boswell shares his thoughts on 5 massively priced contenders for the Ladies French Tennis Open which gets underway on May 28th. Gary has a cracking track record of nailing big priced winners on the Ladies Grand Slams and the following is an extract of his comprehensive review:

Roll on the Garros
The love affair with the French women’s event started for me in 2010 when I landed the Italian Francesca Schiavone at 149/1 pre-tournament and basically launched my tipping career. And then spent the next few years wondering how on earth I’d done it and agonising over whether I’d ever be able to land such a monster again! I gradually did so by realising that surface in women’s tennis is key. You get the odd champ over the years that can win on all surfaces but even, Graf, Serena, Navratilova, Evert, Sharapova – they all still have their preferences and clay is often the one that causes the biggest headache.

And now we also have a Serenaless tournament as the remarkable genius is away bringing new life into this troubled world. She will be missed at 2017 Garros but it does of course slightly increase the % chance of landing an outsider again. They occur in women’s grand slams on a 1:5 ratio in recent years and are therefore always worth seeking.
My Number 1 fancy is currently priced at 150/1 and the next strongest is 125/1. That leaves 3, 4 and 5 who all have solid claims:-

(current price 33/1)
The teenager’s success in Monterrey was the first sign that clay might be her thing. She could be that future champ on all surfaces sort, too soon to know for sure. Ranked 29 now and very much on the bookmaker’s radar as a must protect ourselves against the could anything factor but on my radar for the same sort of reasons really. Her 3rd round appearance at the 2016 Garros was her best yet but is also consistent with the upward curve.

Number four: ANASTASIA PAVLYUCHENKOVA (current price 66/1)
Professed clay court preference. Another slight Russian in and outer but in form and winning in 2017 and a quarter finalist in 2011. Ranked 16 now and one of those I’ve ummed and arred about as to whether she has what it takes. Her old young Goth was symptomatic for me that she would remain flighty but there does seem a maturity now. The vision of a slam win as a possibility has I think occurred to her.

Number five: ALISON VAN UYTVANCK (current price 500/1)
The real left fielder and the one I could be wrong about but a test of my consistency and perseverance that I stick with Alison. May have to qualify. Made QF in 2015 but has done precious little since. Had her share of injury and subsequent self-doubt but that’s how it can go. Still very young and that 2015 run did show she was a maybe on the surface. Not a typical clay courter. Tall and strong. Her development needing to come in the between the ears department no doubt. But still on my radar. And of course her price is the biggest tempter of all. She fits that bill of looking an unlikely one.

Of course horse racing remains the number one sport for the majority of our members but a balanced and profitable portfolio approach should be receptive to other punting activities and for that reason we have plenty of coverage on football and tennis.

If your current punting is not delivering the level of returns you would hope for then now could be the perfect time to make a positive change and check out the Insiders Club Package.

Click here to read on and find out what Nick fancy’s from the racing action on Saturday.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 20th May’17
Newbury 2.55pm
There are a few strong trends for this race and having gone through them we are left with Mucho Applause and Duke Of Bronte. Contrast looks like he really needs a step up in trip and is interesting with Ryan Morre booked.
Mucho Applause @4/1
Duke Of Bronte @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Contrast @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Victoria Cup – Key trends and free tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 13th May’17)
Given our Big Race Guru’s longstanding and profitable track record it was a little surprising that we drew a blank for the second weekend on the bounce as Nick’s Thirsk Hunt Cup picks could only manage a DH 3rd place between them.

But he came good again at Chester and we shared a couple of winners there for free in our emails.

Nick’s profit for 2017 as a whole is showing gains of +132 points profit for his loyal band of followers. This is on the back of the last two years profits of in excess of 1200 points (400pts in 2015 & 850pts in 2016) combined with a cracking +28% ROI.

If your current punting activities are not delivering the level of profit you would hope for then you may enjoy watching this interesting video which explains Nick’s method.

An important part of the comprehensive package enjoyed by members of the Betting Insiders Club is the monthly 52 page report which contains articles written by a team of industry renowned authors such as Alan Dudman (Betting.betfair.com), Josh Wright (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk), and Andrew David (www.bettingdoctor.co.uk) alongside which we feature Nick Hardman’s Big Race Trends. In the hot off the press latest report (Issue 145) Nick covers a number of the top class races due to be run in the coming weeks one of which is Saturday’s Victoria Cup at Ascot, here is a summary of his key findings:-

Victoria Cup (Heritage handicap; 7f, Ascot Sat 13th 4.00pm)
Another cavalry charge, this time over 7f and a good opportunity to land a big priced winner. Flash Fire did the business last year at an SP of 20/1 to add to that list that has seen 33/1, 25/1 (three times) and 16/1 (twice) winners since 2000. Interestingly, the last eighteen renewals have seen eighteen different trainers saddle the winner so we can draw a line through any trainer trends straight away.

Fourteen of the last 18 winners posted a top 5 finish on their most recent start so look for a decent effort last time out. Four year old and 5yo runners have supplied 14 of those winners so I would be inclined to stick with that age group again this time around. A race in the last 60 days is another positive stat and fits the bill for 15 of the 18. Seven furlongs is a bit of a specialist trip, requiring a blend of speed and stamina so no surprise to see that 14 of the last 18 winners have already been successful over the trip. No more than 2 runs in the current season is a strong statistic and only one of our winners had run more than twice in the current campaign.

The weights are a bit of a mixed bag. Flash Fire carried 9st 6lbs last year and Gabriels Lad carried 9st 8lbs in 2004, both of those being the most weight carried by any winner since Mine had 9st 7lbs on his back in 2004. The last four were all burdened with at least 8st 9lbs and purely from a trends perspective, 8st 9lbs or more could be the way to go and accounts for 8 of the last 11 winners.

As far as official ratings go we also see a bit of a mixed bag. Flash Fire (104) and Gabriels Lad (102) were the highest rated winners in recent times. I would certainly be looking for something rated in the 90’s at the very least.

In fact 11 of the last 13 winners were rated 92+ and that might well be the way to go.

Putting all that together gives us the following profile for the Victoria Cup:

• Top 5 finish LTO
• Previous winning form over 7f
• No more than two runs in the current season
• Aged 4yo or 5yo
• Rated 92+
• Carrying 8st 9lbs or more

Nick will be using the above key trends to help him narrow the field to a select number of main contenders. From these he will make his final selections which you can grab by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 13th May’17

A decent trends race and one who ticks plenty of boxes in that respect is Above The Rest. Hors De Combat has been knocking on the door of late and has plenty of decent course form. Of those near the head of the market, Remarkable has solid claims on the back of his second behind Yuften here last season.
Hors De Combat @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Remarkable @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Above The Rest @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Big Race Tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 6th May’17)
There was no joy from last weekend’s selections that ran in the B365 Gold Cup at Sandown with Rock The Kasbah faring the best in finishing in 6th place behind the shock 40/1 winner Henllan Harri.

This weekend sees the first Classics of the new Flat turf campaign with the 3yo colts locking horns on Saturday and the fillies taking centre stage on Sunday at Newmarket.

A little later on we will be sharing a few snippets from Nick Hardman’s weekend Big Race Coverage but just before we move on to those we have Alan Dudman’s thoughts on the aforementioned 2000 & 1000 Guineas.

2000 Guineas
Currently the long-time favourite Churchill was best-priced 11/8 for the first Classic of the Flat season although the signs are that he will likely go off shorter. There’s a lot to admire about the way Ballydoyle go about their business in terms of churning out top-drawer juveniles primed for Newmarket the following season – every season.

Earlier in the year O’Brien accounted for 11 of the 69 entries for the colts’ race, and it’s becoming rather predictable that in the battle of the “racing superpowers”, Godolphin is still falling short, a long way short.

Churchill is a massive colt with a huge amount of physical scope, and he breezed through his two-year-old campaign with typical O’Brien panache. From his five starts he collected Group 1 success in the Dewhurst and the National Stakes. He scored by over four lengths in the latter, but he beat a non-stayer in Mehmas.

I cannot find too many holes with Churchill but at the price it has to be a race to watch and hopefully savour.

1,000 Guineas
The winner of the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket towards the end of the Flat calendar usually makes a case for 1,000 Guineas favouritism during the winter. Aidan O’Brien doesn’t quite have the stranglehold on this as he does with the 2,000, but he has the star two-year-old Rhododendron as the 15/8 favourite here.

Her price makes a lot more sense than Churchill’s 6/4 for a Classic, and she is worthy of her lofty position given the excellent juvenile campaign she produced. Her form is tied in with Hydrangea in some of the best fillies’ races from last term – and for those wags that like a flower forecast….OK let’s not go there.

Rhododendron really looked the part when winning the Fillies’ Mile, and she seemed to absolutely relish the fast ground and the time was a decent one too – eclipsing both previous O’Brien winners of the race in Minding (2016) and Together Forever (2015).

The only negative was the way she hung in the Group 1 Moyglare – a race she finished third in, and Hydrangea second. She wasn’t as impressive in winning the Debutante either – but both of those performances came with a bit of cut. She could just be a fast ground filly.

Roger Charlton’s Fair Eva is around 6/1, but I want to see more evidence of these Frankels at three years of age, as it’s a bit of guessing game if they train on. This filly was the one-time ante post favourite for the 1,000 Guineas and was impressive in winning the Group 3 Princess Margaret last term. However, that race didn’t really work out, and Fair Eva herself was beaten in the Lowther and the Rockfel – and as a potential Classic winner – you need to be winning those.

She lacked a turn of foot, whereas my original fancy, Sea Of Grace, possesses a decent one, and yet the William Haggas filly was available at 20/1 or bigger but unfortunately she now misses the race after the final decs were declared. She may well reappear in the Irish equivalent at the end of May and would certainly be of interest if she lines up.

Her journey to Haggas is rather unfortunate for legendary Irish trainer John Oxx – who trained this filly last year to win a Group 3 at the Curragh. Her owner (and he of Sea The Stars fame) took her and a couple of other three-year-olds to Somerville Lodge in Newmarket, and it’s another blow for a real true gentleman in Oxx.

I’ve mentioned her lovely turn of foot, and I also should pay tribute to a wonderful pedigree too. She ran in the Nell Gwynn at Newmarket on the 12th April and wouldn’t settle early on in the race. She quickened up well to join issue running into the Dip, but then her earlier keenness came back to bite her and she weakened on the run to the line. It would have been feasible to see her stepping up on that performance in the Guineas and reversing form with some of those who finished in front of her but we will have to hold fire now.

To find out what has caught the attention of our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, for the coming weekend click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 6th May’17
Thirsk 3.40pm
A good trends race and the qualifiers are Heir To A Throne, Hidden Rebel and Reaver. Hidden Rebel does not look all that well handicapped but the other two hold chances if progressing again in this. Spring Offensive ran well on reappearance in the Irish Cesarewitch and with a useful claimer on board he is not far off his last winning mark.
Reaver @13/2
Heir To A Throne @10/1
Spring Offensive @8/1

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Big Race Winners!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 29th April’17)
Last time around we focussed on the Coral Scottish Grand National up at Ayr and with one of Nick’s selections placing we ended up pretty much evens stevens on the big race. The horse that landed the place spoils was Blakemount for which members of the Insiders Club had the opportunity to grab 50/1 Each-Way when Saturday’s selections were made available.

In fact the latest weekend proved to be a cracker for Nick’s followers which saw gains of around 70 points at the noted prices and suggested stakes, notwithstanding the usual caveat that individual members may have achieved different profit figures depending on their option of bookmakers and prices obtained.

If that has piqued your interest you may like to watch this interesting video which shows Nick’s methods in action.

For the coming weekend we see the curtain falling on the 2016/17 jumps campaign and as has been the case in the last few years the tussle for the Trainers Title has come down to Nicky Henderson and Paul Nichols. Henderson has been busy over in Ireland at the Punchestown Festival whilst Nichols has had plenty of runners to try and reduce the deficit.

The feature event on the final day of the season is the bet365 Gold Cup for which we will be sharing Nick’s final picks a little later but in the meantime here are some key facts about the big race.

B365 Gold Cup (Sandown 3.35pm Sat 29th April)

The bet365 Gold Cup – or “the Whitbread” as it used to be known in days gone by is run over more than three and a half miles and 24 fences on ground that is forecast to be “good, good to firm in places”.

Those aged 7 or 8 have won 6 of the last 10 renewals and last time out winners or placers also have a good record. A last outing of 4-8 weeks has also been key to the profile of winners and placers. This year’s renewal has a wide open feel about it and given the prices on offer going Each-Way would appear to be the best option.

Although there were wins at 20/1 for Church Island (2011) and Monkerhostin at 25/1 (2008) the recent trend has seen the winners coming from the 8/1 to 14/1 price bracket. No favourite has won in the last 10 years so we are looking for a horse with solid claims but possibly not the one at the head of the market.

It promises to be an exciting finale to what has been a cracking National Hunt season and to read on and find out which contenders for the bet365 Gold Cup have caught the attention of our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, click here.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 29th April’17

Sugar Baron @8/1 Gen
Rock The Kasbah @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Present Man @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve