Top trends & free tips – Peter Marsh Chase

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 21st Jan’17)
Last time around our regular pundit, Nick Hardman, tackled the feature race at Warwick, the Betfred Classic Chase, and went mighty close to landing a big’un!

As he often does when faced with a very competitive 20+ runner handicap he turns to his trusty stats and trends to help narrow down the field. In this instance he went for a trio of big priced runners that were a good fit and with the lowest priced one being 18/1 he suggested going Each-Way but also taking advantage of bonus place terms that some of the bookies offer on these types of events. This time around Skybet were offering 6 places at 1/5 odds and it would have been rude not to take advantage of this.

Just before we move on to review the outcome of the race you can find out more about Nick’s Big Race Winning Techniques in this interesting video.

As it turned out the biggest priced of Nick’s selections, Goodtoknow (adv EW 33/1), nearly pulled it off but in the end could not cope with the late surge of race winner One For Arthur and had to settle for second and the handy place spoils. One of the other picks, Rigadin De Beauchene (adv EW 18/1), managed to finish in a clear 6th place and also added to the returns.

This weekend Haydock stages, weather permitting, a cracking card which includes the renewal of the Peter Marsh Chase (3.15pm) and who better to turn to than the Betting Insiders Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, for the key trends to try and unravel the chances of the 14 runners that are currently entered.

Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2; 3m); Haydock, January 21st
This 3 miles limited handicap (a race where a restricted weight range is specified) has been contested on heavy ground on 8 of the last 9 renewals and no surprise to see that the top weight (or joint top weight) has won just one of the last 12 renewals. That win came on soft ground. If the going is heavy we can give the top weight a swerve.

In fact, since 2004, horses at least 11lbs below the top weight have won 7 of the 10 renewals. Only Cloudy Lane and Jodami have carried more than 11st 2lbs to victory since 1997. Five of the last eight winners were ridden by a claimer so taking weight off the back of the horse really seems to help.

With the current forecast going as soft we should take note of entries by Venetia Williams who is adept at training the mud larks and she has twice trained the winner of this race. Likewise, Sue Smith has won the race three times, including last year’s winner Cloudy Too. Look out for runners entered by these two and I would add Kerry Lee into the mix as well. All three are excellent trainers of staying chasers, especially when the mud is flying around.

There has been only one winning favourite in the last 16 renewals and that is in spite of this race seeing small fields of 5 to 7 runners in the past. In fact, horses sent off at 4/1 or shorter have provided just 2 winners from 22 runners.

Do not be afraid to back a veteran chaser if you fancy one as this race has been won by two 12yo, one 11yo and four who were aged 10yo. Despite this, 8yo runners have the best record and are 6-36 at a strike rate of 17%. Horses aged 7yo or younger are few and far between and have a record of 0-19.

Horses with experience of marathon distances (3m 6f or further) have a good record and are 7-45 (strike rate 16%) and horses to have run in the Grand National are 3-21 (strike rate 14%). Eleven of the winners since 1997 had winning form over at least 3 miles and a break of 16 – 60 days looks ideal and accounts for 13 of the last 16 winners.

That gives us a decent profile to identify some of the likelier types who will line up for the Peter Marsh Chase.
• Carrying 11st 2lbs or less
• At least 11lbs below top weight (heavy going)
• Ridden by a claimer
• 9/2 or higher in the betting
• Trained by Venetia Williams, Sue Smith or Kerry Lee
• Aged 8yo or older
• Winning form over 3m or further
• Raced over 3m 6f or further
• Last race 16 – 60 days ago

In addition to Haydock Saturdays racing also includes some decent cards at Ascot, Lingfield and Taunton although the weather may still play a part of what goes ahead. You can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 21st Jan
Haydock 3.15pm
Alary would have to be pretty special to take this off 11-10 and he concedes at least 7lb to the whole field. This is one we covered in the Insiders Report and from a trends perspective Otago Trail ticks plenty of boxes along with Bishops Road who needs to jump better but will be suited if this turns into a slog. Sausalito Sunrise can also be given a chance on these terms and ran a solid race last time at Cheltenham,
Sausalito Sunrise @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Bishops Road @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Otago Trail @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Betfred Classic Chase – Key trends and free tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 14th Jan’17)
Last time around Loose Chips (adv EW 18/1) performed the best of the selections provided by our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, in coming third in the Veteran’s Chase series final at Sandown. You can’t win them all and the place spoils certainly softened the blow somewhat.

For the coming weekend Nick will be casting his slide rule over a number of the feature events including the Betfred Classic Chase from Warwick where a small matter of 20+ runners are due to take part! These are the types of events that Nick excels at and you can find out more about his big race winning techniques in this interesting video.

The following is a snap shot of the key trends that Nick uncovered for the aforementioned race in his article for the brand new Insiders Members Report (Issue 141). The monthly reports are an integral part of the three pronged package available to members of the Insiders Club along with a vibrant and friendly community/forum and of course those highly profitable Club Portfolio tips which in 2016 made over 850 points profit at a cracking 31% ROI. You can find out more here – .

Betfred Classic Chase
(Sat 14th 15.35pm Warwick)
A true slog of ever there was one; the Classic Chase is for the real stayers especially when run on the usual soft or heavy ground which is the case this time around. It has been won by some decent sorts in the past including Shotgun Paddy, Rigadin De Beauchene and Hey Big Spender. Paul Nicholls has a decent record in this with three wins since 2006 (race abandoned in 2009 and 2010) and Alan King won this in 2008 and 2011. Look out for what they run this time around.

Four of the last 8 renewals have been on heavy ground, with a further three run on soft ground so also look for a horse that goes on the ground. Eleven of the past fourteen winners carried 11-01 or less so I will be looking for those racing under this weight, especially if the conditions are testing.

Hey Big Spender was rated 156 and carried 11-12 when he won this but that stands out a mile as a trends buster. Horses rated higher than 136 have won just three renewals since 2000 so look for something rate less than this.

Two or three runs in the current season look perfect and accounts for 11 of the last 14 winners. This is a real slog so no surprise to see that all bar one of the previous winners had won a race over at least 3 miles and all bar two winners had raced over 3m 2f or further.

Horses with Grand National experience have won three times and horses with race experience over 4 miles or further have won this eight times. A run in a “National” of some description looks a plus.

Favourites are 1-15 so they are worth taking on as winners have come from all over the betting market including 10th, 11th and 12th. That gives the race a wide open feel and it has produced its fair share of double-figure priced winners, the biggest being Russe Blance last year at an SP of 20/1.
Older horses do well with 9 of the last 14 winners aged 9yo or older. In fact, the 9yo+ brigade have won 6 of the last 9 renewals.

Putting all that together gives us the following profile:

• Aged 9yo or older
• Carrying 11-01 or less on soft or heavy ground
• Rated under 137
• 2 or 3 runs in the current season
• Won over 3 miles or further
• Raced over 4 miles or further or competed in one of the Nationals
• Trained by Paul Nicholls or Alan King

Saturdays racing includes some top notch races from Warwick, Kempton and Wetherby although the weather may play a part of what goes ahead. You can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 14th Jan

One from the Insiders Report and the trends qualifier who ticks plenty of boxes is old boy and thorough stayer Midnight Prayer. Rigadin De Beauchene is interesting off 10-03, will love the ground and is a previous winner of this race. Kerry Lee won this last year with Russe Blanc and I think that trainer’s Goodtoknow has been a bit overlooked as he is gradually coming into form, acts on the ground and is back on a winning mark.
Rigadin De Beauchene @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Midnight Prayer @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
Goodtoknow @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)

Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Time for a change for the better?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 7th Jan’17)
First up we trust that the festive period went well for all of you and that you are looking forward to what 2017 has in store for us from a personal and punting prospective. As a Club we always consider this time of the year the perfect time to pause and reflect on how things panned out over the previous 12 months. Those of you that are regular readers will by now be very familiar with the sterling work that Big Race Guru Nick Hardman does on behalf of the Insiders Club, as well as the snippets of free info we provide in these newsletters.

You may wish to refresh or even familiarise yourself by viewing this interesting video of the techniques that Nick uses to tackle the Big Races, many of which are 16+ runner extremely competitive handicaps!

Well Nick has exactly the same mind-set as us, which is probably the reason we all gel as a team, and as such the first task he carried out in between cooking the turkey and seeing in the New Year in was to review his Big Race selections from the previous 12 months. The brand new Insider Members Report (Issue 141) is hot off the press and the opening salvo just had to be Nick’s review. Here are a few extracts to whet the appetite:-

Club Portfolio – Big Race Analysis 2016 Review

Summary – We doubled the profit tally from 2015 from 403.75pts to 851.53pts. So, what did we do differently? Quite simply more bets (1366 vs 871) and a higher ROI (31% v 23%). The ROI improved some 8% on 2015 and we had 79 winners at odds of 10/1 or bigger and 103 winners at odds under 10/1. The strike rate for win (13%) and win/place (23%) roughly stayed the same as 2015. For those of you who enjoy the thrill of a big priced winner we had 24 do the business at 16/1 or bigger odds and 13 who obliged at odds of 20/1 or higher.

Highlights in 2016Sunday is meant to be the day of rest but this became one of our cornerstones for 2016 with 303 bets, 42 winners (14% SR), 75 win or place (25% SR), profit +185.60pts, ROI 31%.

Irish racing In 2016 we expanded to cover quite a few Irish races. Our tally in Ireland was 242 bets, 35 winners (14% SR), 65 win and place (26% SR), profit +237.58pts, ROI 47%.

International racing We took in France, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, the American classics and the Breeders Cup. The performance was 57 bets, 11 winners (19% SR), 18 win and place (32% SR), 148.50pts profit, ROI 130%.

Royal Ascot Always a toughie but we smashed it this year when quite a few other tipsters, services and the pros from the racing industry struggled. We ended up 97.25pts to the good at the advised prices over the 5 days and we landed 12 winners.

Glorious Goodwood A personal highlight for me as I have never made a profit at this meeting before. At the advised prices we bagged 85.75pts with 11 winners and a further 9 landed the place spoils. These results were amplified as we were covering Galway at the same time where we hit 7 winners and 3 placers for another 81.30pts profit, including Lord Scoundrel @33/1 in the Galway Plate. Over the course of 7 days these two festivals combined for 167pts which made it a week to remember in many ways.

Nick is the first to admit that he never rests on his laurels and so he ends his review with thoughts on the coming 12 months.

“I do need to state first and foremost that we all manage our expectations, including myself. 2016 was better than I expected. Not one losing month in 12. However, that does not mean we can exceed that in 2017. It’s a new year and a new start. As always, we reset to zero and past exploits will count for nothing. I never set targets other than to achieve a 15 – 20% ROI. In my book this is acceptable and achievable with the right mindset. We bettered this in 2016 (+30% ROI) but anything around 20% will do me and that’s my goal for 2017”

Nick’s Big Race Coverage is the flagship of the Betting Insiders Club Portfolio which alongside a vibrant and friendly community/forum and monthly 52 page Members Reports offers a very comprehensive opportunity to take your punting to a new higher level. So if the last 12 months have not delivered on your expectations then now is the perfect time to make a change for the better and join the Betting School Insiders Club. You can find out more here

Saturdays racing includes some decent races at Sandown and Wincanton and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 7th Jan

Sandown 1.15pm
Morning Reggie has won around here off a similar mark and could go well at a price after a pleasing comeback run at Kempton. Mystifiable disappointed last time at Newbury but should strip fitter here and he showed plenty of potential last season as a chaser.
Mystifiable @6/1 B365/BFsb
Morning Reggie @9/1 Gen

Sandown 3.00pm
The more rain the better for Cloudy Too and he is 11lb better off with Gas Line Boy so has every chance of reversing that form. He won the Peter March Chase off 1lb higher so he should be competitive off his current mark. At a bigger price Loose Chips can go well at a course he has won at previously.
Cloudy Too @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen)
Loose Chips @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen)

Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Hats off to Nick Hardman and his Big Race Selections!!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 31st Dec’16)
Well we have reached the last betting day of the year and whatever happens today 2016 has been, in our humble opinion, a tremendous one for the Club and in particular the Big Race Coverage for which we cannot praise Nick Hardman enough for his sterling efforts over the past 12 months! We trust that you have also benefited from the regular samples of Nick’s weekend selections and if his exploits have caught your attention you can find out more about his methods in this interesting video.

Saturdays racing includes some decent cards at Ascot and Haydock and to say goodbye to 2016 you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention for today by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 31st Dec

Warwick 1.35pm
Sunny Ledgend races off the same mark as when a game second on his reappearance behind Yanmare. If he does not bounce then he should be in the mix in a competitive heat. Twirling Magnet is beginning to look well handicapped and should be able to capitalise soon.
Twirling Magnet @7/1 Gen
Sunny Ledgend @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Gen)

Newbury 12.40pm
Quite an interesting race with a few chase debutantes but I usually stick with experience and both Aurillac and Potters Legend are running well over fences at the moment.
Aurillac @9/2 Gen
Potters Legend @9/1 Gen

We trust that you all have an enjoyable time seeing in the New Year and are looking forward to what 2017 has in store for us on both a personal and a punting perspective.

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 17th Dec’16)

Last weekend our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, continued his amazing form by landing the winner of the feature race at Cheltenham, the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase.

Here is a quick reminder of his thoughts on the event:-

“Another Big Race (Cheltenham 1.50pm) covered by the Betting Insiders Report. Kylemore Lough appeals most of those near the top of the market. Frodon will appreciate the return to better ground and is not one to write off yet. King’s Odyssey is unexposed and merits respect also, having won a C&D handicap last season.”

Kylemore Lough @8/1 Gen
Frodon @10/1 e/w Gen
King’s Odyssey @12/1 e/w Gen

The outcome led to Frodon becoming only the second four-year-old to win the Big Race at the rewarding odds of 14/1!

Nick has been providing his selections and thorough writes ups to the Betting Insiders Club for just a few weeks shy of two years and during that time the members have enjoyed some cracking profits which as we close in on 2016 currently sit at +827 points to advised level stakes (2pts per bet) and available odds. The selections are made available the night before racing to enable the bets to be placed and members can sit back and enjoy the fun of watching them run.

Of course we fully appreciate that some folk have challenges with the bookies in these times of restrictive practices but given the nature of the events Nick tackles there are plenty of options available including the exchanges to grab the best average price going.

With a return on investment of in excess of 30% there is certainly plenty of cream to work with and feedback from the members tells us that they are very happy campers even if they don’t always get on at the best price. The winner mentioned earlier, Frodon, was originally put up at 12/1 to the members, and even 10/1 in last week’s newsletter and won at an SP of 14/1.

Profitable Betting Method Video If Nick’s exploits have caught your attention you can find out more about his methods in this interesting video.

Saturdays racing includes some decent cards at Ascot and Haydock and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 17th Dec

Ascot 3.00pm
The top two in the betting hold solid chances. Go Conquer’s reappearance second to The Present Man has been boosted by the winner going in at a higher level while Ryanair fifth Eduard ran well off a break in excess of 600 days and if he strips fitter here could well show himself to be better than a handicapper.
Go Conquer @5/1
Eduard @8/1

Ascot 3.35pm
Consul De Thaix is one of a few with untapped potential and as a half brother to Volnaix De Thaix who was a smart hurdler himself. Brain Power beat his stablemate last time and could have more to offer while Diego Du Charmil would be a danger to all if recapturing his Fred Winter form.
Consul De Thaix @9/1
Brain Power @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP)
Diego Du Charmil @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve