Becher Chase Profile and Selections

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 3rd Dec’16)
Last time around we were able to share our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman’s, key trends and stats for the Hennessy Gold Cup which took place at Newbury on the Saturday. Nick incorporates these into his approach when tackling the big races and festivals and just before we move on to how his final selections for the Hennessy fared you may be interested to view this video that shows how he goes about his business.

Profitable Betting Method Video Having applied the key trends to the 20 runner field to try and sort the wheat from the Chaff Nick reached the following conclusion:

The Hennessy Gold Cup (Sat 26th Nov – Newbury 15.10pm)
The main event and a race we looked at in the Betting Insiders Report for November. The trends qualifiers are Native River and Un Temps Pour Tout. The former makes more appeal off 11-01. Stablemate Theatre Guide has finished 2nd and 3rd on his previous two starts in this race and could give each-way backers a run for their money. At bigger prices Vicente seems to have been a bit ignored in the betting. He is 4 from 8 over fences and is a thorough stayer. He also fits the bill in terms of age, OR and winning form over 3m+. Could go well at a decent price.

Native River @6/1 Gen
Theatre Guide @18/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 4 places, BFsb) or 16/1 (1/5 odds, 5 places,PP)
Vicente @20/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet) or (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)

In the race itself Theatre Guide looked to be getting in to a challenging position by the 14th fence but couldn’t sustain it and weakened 2 out. Similar comments could be applied to Vicente although he fell 2 out, meanwhile the well backed Native River was always to the fore and despite idling after the last he stayed on well to take the winners plaudits!

For the coming weekend there is, weather permitting, a cracking card on Saturday at Aintree which features the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase and here are Nick’s key notes on the big race:-

Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (13.35 Aintree)

I absolutely love this race as it is run over the Grand National fences and almost always attracts a bumper field. The key trainer amongst the entries is Nigel Twiston-Davies who has won this three times since 1998 (twice with Hello Bud).

There have been just 3 winning favourites since 1997 and all bar 5 of the last 19 winners came from the top 9 in the market. That can usually take out half the field, but be aware that the last two winners went in at 20/1 and 25/1. We have also had a couple of winners at 33/1 and another at 25/1 since 2001 so this is definitely a race where you can take two or three against the field. From an age perspective we have seen some real old boys win this recently in Oscar Time (13yo) and Hello Bud (as a 12yo and a 14yo). Those aside, the dominant age group is 8yo to 10yo with 14 of the last 19 winners. They do, however, make up the majority of the runners. The 9yo to 10yo age bracket have the best strike rate, combining for 11 winners since 1998.

Interestingly, all bar 1 winner since 1997 managed a top 5 finish in their last outing or were pulled up or unseated their rider. Given that a lot of horses may have had their last run in the Grand National I would not be put off by one that fell into the latter two categories. In fact, 9 previous winners since 1997 had contested the Grand National so that is a pretty decent pointer. All bar three winners in that time had raced over at least 3m 5f so this really is a stayers’ race.

Going on the most recent trends (since 2008) we have quite a narrow official ratings band that has produced 7 of the last 8 winners. That band is from 130 – 137, the exception being the 148 rated Vic Venturi who won this in 2009. He also carried a big weight of 11st 12lbs in the process and that also stands out amongst the recent winners. The other 7 winners since 2008 all carried under 11st. Horses that raced in the 15 days prior to the Becher Chase should be avoided as they have an overall record of 0-73. A break of 16 – 60 days looks ideal for those horses that have had a run in the current season and those that have had that kind of break have produced 10 winners in the last 19 renewals. A further 6 winners took this on their seasonal reappearance and so lack of a recent run is not a concern. In fact, seasonal debutants are 6-55 (11% strike rate) which is far better than those with a run under their belts. A win over 3 miles or further also looks like a good statistic and accounts for no fewer than 14 of the 19 winners since 1997.

Given the special nature of these fences, I tend to look for any horse that has run over them before. That is usually the Grand National or a previous appearance in the Becher Chase itself. I also sit up and take note of whichever horse Sam Waley-Cohen is set to ride. For an amateur he has an exceptional record at Aintree. He has ridden 6 winners from 36 rides there for a level stakes profit of £33.33 and ridden a further 9 into the places which increases profit to £63.55.

Here is the trends profile for the past winners of the Becher Chase:

• Aged 8yo or 10yo
• Top 5 finish LTO, or pulled up or unseated
• Top 9 in the betting
• Rated 130 – 137
• Carrying under 11st
• A break of 16 – 60 days or seasonal reappearance
• Ran in the Grand National
• Completed over the Grand National fences
• Raced over 3m 5f or further
• Nigel Twiston-Davies
• Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen

Nick will be taking the above into the mix when he assesses the main contenders and to find his final selection(s) click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 3rd Dec

The Becher Chase is one of the races we covered in the November Insiders Report. This year is a bit of a mixed bag in terms of horses ticking all the right boxes but the one who ticks plenty and is well handicapped is Alvarado and he goes on the short list. Highland Lodge is being offered up at big price with PaddyPower and although 5lb higher he is still at the right end of weights and ratings scale of previous winners. Vieux Lion Rouge is the final selection who ran well in the Grand National and goes well fresh. Again, he has a nice weight.

Alvarado @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, BV)
Highland Lodge @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP/SJ)
Vieux Lion Rouge @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, WH)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Follow up to last weekends 14/1 winner?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th Nov’16)
It didn’t take long for the free Big Race selections to return to their normal level of form with last weekend’s picks nailing one of the Breeders Cup races over at Santa Anita. Here is a quick reminder of our Big Race guru Dr Nick Hardman’s thoughts as to why he could see Obviously running a big race

“Santa Anita 9.05pm
I think this is the most interesting race on the card due to the unique nature of the track. I have read a lot about horses with speed coming back in trip and being hard to peg back. That’s the angle I’ll play and two who fit the bill are Obviously (adv EW 14/1) and Celestine (adv EW 10/1).”

The form book details that although he wasn´t best away (normal for him) he soon recovered to lead, and was then able to control things from there. Things got a bit desperate close to home but he just held on to win by a nose!

Nick’s selections cannot win every race but they have been making solid profits for just shy of two years now and you may be interested to watch this video which explains the methods behind them.

Profitable Betting Method Video The brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 139) includes Nick’s insightful trends and key stats for a number of the big races due to take place in the coming weeks, one of which is the feature event on Saturday’s top class card at Cheltenham:-

BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Sat 12th Nov, 2.25pm Cheltenham)
This is a race that has been dominated in recent years by those to the fore in the betting. Six of the last nine renewals have gone to one of the horses in the top three in the betting, the exceptions being Little Josh, Caid Du Berlais and last year’s winner Annacotty. I would certainly concentrate on the top half of the market with the top 8 having supplied all bar two winners since 1997.

Eleven of the last 13 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo, the exceptions being Little Josh (8yo) and Caid Du Berlais (5yo). Normal service was resumed in 2015 when Annacotty won at the age of 7 and this race normally goes to a second or third season chaser who is prominent in the betting. Given this event is early in the season there are no surprises to see 10 of the last 19 winners take this first time out and a further 7 winning after a single prep run. Horses having run twice or more already in the season are 2-80.

Course form looks a positive with 16 of the last 19 winners having competed in a chase at the previous Cheltenham Festival. 14 of the last 19 winners had previous winning form at Cheltenham over the trip of 2m 4 ½f or further. Caid Du Berlais ran 3rd in the Fred Winter (2013) and 2nd in the Martin Pipe Conditional race (2014) over hurdles so he had plenty of the aforementioned course form.

Al Ferof lugged a big weight (11st 8lbs) off a lofty mark of 159 to win this in 2012. That was a bit of a trends buster, the previous five and the next two winners all carried 11st or less and were rated 139 – 148.

Eight last time out winners have won the Paddy Power since 1997 (10% strike rate) and a further three winners were runner-up on their previous start (6% strike rate). Although this race is over 2m 4 ½f it is interesting to note that no fewer than 15 of the last 19 winners had actually raced over 3 miles or further during their career. Only 1 winner since 1997 has been trained in Ireland. Those trainers with a good record in this race include Paul Nicholls (2 wins in the last 4 years), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 wins in the last 8 years) and Jonjo O’Neill (2 wins in the last 10 years). Philip Hobbs and Alan King have had a number of placed runners in recent times, often at decent each-way prices and the latter went one better when saddling Annacotty last year.

• Aged 6yo or 7yo
• No more than one run in the current season
• Top 8 in the betting
• Rated 139 – 148
• Carrying 11st or less
• Ran at the 2016 Cheltenham festival
• Won at Cheltenham previously
• Top 2 finish LTO
• Raced over 3m or further
• Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies

Nick will be taking the above into consideration when settling on his final selections which you can find below…

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 12th Nov
The trends qualifiers are Double Shuffle, Aso, Stilletto and As De Mee. Of the quartet I think As De Mee looks to hold a decent chance as he ran More Of That to a couple of lengths here last year, has distance winning form and ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival (another stat many previous winners have). I think Aso is an interesting runner who has form ties with Ballyalton (Festival winner) and Fox Norton. Any rain would help his cause no end and he could outrun his odds if ready to go. I will also have a saver on Frodon who Paul Nicholls speaks glowingly about and gets a handy weight for age allowance and Harry Cobden’s 3lb claim.

Frodon @8/1 Gen
As De Mee @8/1 Gen
Aso @16/1 e/w Gen (1/4 odds, 6 places, BV, 5pl B365)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free profitable tips incl. Breeders Cup

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 5th Nov’16)
Last weekend’s Big Race selections couldn’t add to the year to date tally of profits,  of the three that ran Noche De Reyes coming closest in finishing second at Ascot. You can’t win them all but followers of Dr Nick understand that by having a little patience coupled with a sensible bank the medium to long term rewards will follow.

Nick has just completed yet another successful month with October yielding 14 winners and a further 8 placers, where advised EW, from a total of 102 selections (21.57% Strike Rate). These produced +57.61pts profit to advised stakes/prices and as a result the total for 2016 has moved on to +711.47pts profit combined with a very decent +31.7% ROI.

Profitable Betting Method Video If the above figures have piqued you interest you may like to view this interesting video that explains how Nick goes about his profitable method.

The Insiders Club is about to release its latest Betting Insiders Report (Issue 139) but we will have more about that next time around as the current one is more than doing the business with its raft of interesting and thought provoking strategies/angles. One of our regular contributors Alan Dudman (betting.betfair blog) produced a really comprehensive guide to the 2016 Breeders Cup which takes place over this weekend.

Here are some of the snippets for races to be run on Saturday evening:-

Breeders Cup (2016)
BC Classic (dirt) – 12.35 Santa Anita
There’s a complete dearth of European runners for the headline race on dirt with the market dominated by the great California Chrome, and with career earnings of in excess of $13million he is currently the best horse in the world according to Timeform’s Global Rankings – with a figure of 135.and his claims are obvious. But at odds on I wouldn’t want to back him considering he was only third in the 2015 BC Classic, and the Dubai World Cup form is never something that I ever get carried away with either.

The buzz horse in America at the moment is Arrogate. The word means to take something without having the right to do so, which is something all the ‘Chromies’ might be setting themselves up for. Arrogate in short could be a dirt monster, and at 11/4 generally with most books he offers a solid alternative to the favourite. The 3yo absolutely destroyed a field in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes by 13-and-a-half lengths, and rocked the clock at 1.59.36 – the fastest-ever Travers in its 147-year-history. He was not beating corpses either, with American Freedom miles behind in second, and that one had form in the Grade 1 Haskell with Exaggerator and Nyquist.

Talk of this sophomore colt has already been about a potential Eclipse Award winner, and watching his Travers Stakes performance on YouTube certainly had shades of Secretariat. He looks the type to race handy, and manner of a proper dirt horse that just grinds and powers clear at the end of the race. He is also with one of the best US trainers around in Bob Baffert.

Recommended Bet – Back Arrogate (11/4 Gen)

BC Mile (turf) – 11.40 Santa Anita
The favourite is Mark Casse’s giant mare Tepin, and she shot to prominence when landing the Queen Anne Stakes this summer at Royal Ascot. The five-year-old went without her usual nasal strip and Lasix, and despite the soft ground, she still won – so for that she should be applauded. However, it was a wide-open race and the form in beating Belardo, Lightning Spear and Toormore doesn’t look the strongest to me. On the other hand Alice Springs is a top-class filly, and her trainer has been quoted as saying “She’s made for the Breeders’ Cup on fast ground”, whilst her jockey Ryan Moore spoke in glowing terms, saying: “When she gets a good hard even pace, she’s a very good filly.” She’s enjoyed a wonderful season; with victory during Irish Champions Weekend; where she secured a staggering win with a brutal turn of foot to land the Matron Stakes. She also won a Falmouth earlier this season at Newmarket on fast ground. Her change of gear is frightening, and I would ignore her runs in France earlier in the campaign.

Recommended Bet – Back Alice Springs (4/1 Gen)

There is plenty of quality racing this side of the pond on Saturday and to find out which Big Race runners have caught the attention of Dr Nick click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 5th Nov
Doncaster 3.35pm
Litigant is still lightly raced and found Group company too much on his last two starts. Although he was not disgraced. His strike rate is impressive and he won this last year so I think he will be in the mix. Not So Sleepy ran well behind What About Carlo last time out and has an each-way chance if building on that whilst Dashing Star came back off a 471 day absence with a decent effort behind Tawdeea and it was only two starts back that he went close to winning the John Smith’s Silver Cup.
Litigant @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen)
Dashing Star @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen)

Santa Anita 9.05pm

I think this is the most interesting race on the card due to the unique nature of the track. I have read a lot about horses with speed coming back in trip and being hard to peg back. That’s the angle I’ll play and two who fit the bill are Obviously and Celestine.
Obviously @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3 places, BFSB)
Celestine @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Lad)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Micro Angles & Big Race Tips!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 22nd Oct’16)
Last weekend we were treated to a feast of top class racing with the QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot. Of the free selections that we shared Quest For More (adv EW 12/1) fared the best in coming a close second in the Long Distance Cup.

Just prior to the meeting getting underway Jim Crowley was officially crowned Stobart Champion Flat Jockey 2016. The former jump jockey had enjoyed a fantastic recent run of form which included breaking the record for the number of winners in a calendar month after securing 46 victories in September.

Amongst our other snippets we highlighted the opportunity to potentially profit on the “Premier League – Next Manager To Leave” market with David Moyes available to back at 6/1. Well it didn’t take long before those odds disappeared on the back of the dreaded “vote of confidence” from the club who announced that “David Moyes will be given “every possible opportunity to succeed” at Sunderland despite the club’s poor start to the season”. He now sits at the head of the betting at a top price of 7/4 so those of you that took heed of the advice have the option of laying back to cover the stakes and having a free bet or just letting events run their course knowing you have massive value on your side!

We have just published the latest Betting Insiders Report (Issue 138) and amongst its insightful content there are an interesting bunch of well researched NH micro angles that should pay their way in the coming months as the jumps action hots up. Amongst these there is a detailed section that covers the home of jump racing, Cheltenham, which is holding a cracking three day meeting this weekend. In addition to sharing the angles from the track we have also highlighted a number of qualifiers down to run on Saturday.

Cheltenham Micro Angles
The stats are from 2013 onwards and exclude “Novice Handicaps” and the March Festival:-

Handicap Hurdles
• P J Hobbs: 32 bets / 6 wins / 16 places / 19% sr / +50 SP / +84 BFSP / AE 1.52
• P Bowen: 13 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 23% sr / +19 SP / +21 BFSP / AE 2.42

Handicap Chases
• Fergal O’Brien: 25 bets / 4 wins / 7 places / 16% sr / +22 SP / +27 BFSP / AE 1.94
• N J Hawke: 5 bets / 3 wins / 3 places / 60% sr / +29 SP / +34 BFSP / AE 6.52
• Harry Fry: 5 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 40% sr / +9 SP / +10 BFSP / AE 3.13

National Hunt Flat Races
• P J Hobbs: 10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 20% sr / -2 SP / -1 BFSP / AE 1.59
• Miss R Curtis: 5 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 40% sr / +20 SP / +28 BFSP / AE 2.86
• D Pipe: 8 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 25% sr / 0 SP / +1 BFSP / AE 1.52

Micro Angles
Trainer/Jockey Combo – PJ Hobbs/R Johnson: 54 bets / 10 wins / 20 places / 19% sr / +22 SP / +38 BFSP / AE 1.55
Class – Jonjo O’Neill/Class 2: 26 bets / 6 wins / 11 places / 23% sr / +28 SP / +38 BFSP / AE 1.93

For those of you that may not be familiar with the “A/E” figure basically it is a nifty calculation based on the price of the runners that compares the actual results with the percentage chance or “expected”. If the figure is bigger than 1.00 then it is a positive trend and one that should be noted carefully when evaluating the chance of the qualifiers from the angles.

Using the above micro angles we find the following qualifiers from Saturday’s card at Cheltenham:-

Henryville (1350), Owen Na View/Dunraven Storm (1530), Golden Doyen/For Good Measure/Listen And Learn (1605), Coroner’s Report (1715) and Brother Tedd (1640).

Whilst we are not advocating blindly backing all of these we would suggest that you take a closer look at their respective chances and any market support before settling on a shortlist of bets. The positive “A/E” profiles can be a profitable aid to your betting armoury so we would recommend that you add it into your current race study.

Click here to read on and find out what Nick fancies from this weekend’s racing action:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 22nd Oct

Newbury 2.20pm
Three year olds have a good record in this race and both the 3yo runners make appeal in this with a useful weight for age allowance. Frontiersman could go on to better things and looks one with huge potential. Mountain Bell won a Listed race at Chester on just her fourth start and she also looks like she has plenty more to offer.
Mountain Bell @8/1 Gen
Frontiersman @6/1 Gen

Cheltenham 4.05pm

Anteros is interesting from the perspective he has the highest RPR in the field and returns to hurdles after an unsuccessful spell chasing. He ran two of his best races here, finishing second and third both over three miles. Looks to have been underestimated here. Golden Doyen also reverted to hurdles two starts back and won, then followed up with a good third on the flat.
Golden Doyen @8/1 Gen
Anteros @25/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Gen)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free QIPCO British Champions Day Tips!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 15th Oct’16)
Saturday sees the flat season draw to a close with the big finale, the QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot. It is also the richest race day in the British flat racing calendar. As the culmination of the QIPCO British Champions Series, this race day features the end-of-season championship races over 10f (The Champion Stakes), a mile (The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes), 6f (Sprint Stakes), 2 miles (Long Distance Cup) as well as a Group 1 race for fillies and mares over 1m 4f.

Last year the Insiders Club “Big Race Guru” Nick Hardman had an absolute cracker with 4 winners and a big priced placer and the members are eagerly awaiting his final selections in anticipation of more of the same this time around.

Of course Nick can’t nail every big race winner but over the course of the 2016 campaign his selections have produced stonking profits of +650 points with a 23% Strike Rate and a very commendable +30% return on advised stakes. If that has piqued your interest you may wish to view this interesting video which explains Nick’s big race winning techniques.

Race Profile Example Welsh Grand NationalA little later on we will be sharing his thoughts of the “Big One” but just before we move on to that we have a quick update on Club news.

Betting Insiders news
In addition to the Club Portfolio “Big Race Coverage” which has just completed yet another profitable month with September delivering +28.96pts profit the Insiders Club comprehensive membership includes a vibrant and welcoming community/forum and also a monthly 52 page Insiders Report containing articles written by a team of industry respected experts.

The brand new edition (Issue 138) has already started rewarding its readers with the cricket coverage of the Bangladesh v England One Day Internationals landing one of the two suggested bets “England to win the series 2-1 @2.75”. The football content includes a very detailed look-see of how the Premier League heavy weights get on when they meet up and the output of the analysis is a recommended bet for each encounter. The author Mark Foley certainly knows his stuff as last season he predicted that the Premiership would throw up many unexpected results especially when the so called “Big Four” were playing away from home. We ran a live forum trial on this angle and followers were rewarded with cracking profits.

On Monday Liverpool play host to Man Utd and Mark’s thoughts on this match is to consider backing Juan Mata to get on the score sheet. Of course common sense prevails and we would want to ensure he starts the match before investing any of our hard earned but if he does he should offer a decent punt at around the 9/2 mark.

Whilst on the topic of the Premier League one of our regular contributors feels that David Moyes tenure at Sunderland may not last much longer. Overnight there are reports of a flood of money for Chelsea’s Antonio Conte to be the next Prem manager to get the sack and if the Blues put in a lack lustre performance against Leicester in the early Saturday kick-off then that may well be paid out pretty quick. If Chelsea win though the Italian is likely to hang on to his position and therefore that may be the time to consider backing David Moyes (at around 6/1) to get the chop just prior to Sunderland taking on Stoke in the 3pm KO.

Each month the Insiders Reports offers insights and angles across a range of popular punting sports including horse racing, football, cricket, tennis and exchange trading and if your current activities are not delivering the level of profit you aspire to then now could be the perfect time to check out how the Betting Insiders Club can help you achieve your objectives. Click here to find out more.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 15th Oct

1.25pm Ascot
Order Of St George is clearly the one to beat but offers no value at odds-on so it might be worth looking for the each-way option. At the prices I think Quest For More has decent place claims as he is in terrific form and has no question marks over the trip. In fact, he has plenty of stamina for beyond two miles and can be ridden prominently or can be held up as was seen in his Group 1 win in France.
Quest For More @12/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3 places)

4.25pm Ascot
Firmament and Afjaan hold solid claims from those near the top of the betting, the latter getting in here off a light weight. At bigger prices, Here Comes When is interesting with Jamie Spencer on board. He competed exclusively at Group level in 2015 and though not up to that level he was far from disgraced. Seemed to lose his way a bit after that but the return to a mile and some rain could see him bounce back.
Firmament @8/1
Afjaan @9/1
Here Comes When @25/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve