Time for a change for the better?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 7th Jan’17) First up we trust that the festive period went well for all of you and that you are looking forward to what 2017 has in store for us from a personal and punting prospective. As a Club we always consider this time of the year the perfect time to pause and reflect on how things panned out over the previous 12 months. Those of you that are regular readers will by now be very familiar with the sterling work that Big Race Guru Nick Hardman does on behalf of the Insiders Club, as well as the snippets of free info we provide in these newsletters. You may wish to refresh or even familiarise yourself by viewing this interesting video of the techniques that Nick uses to tackle the Big Races, many of which are 16+ runner extremely competitive handicaps! Well Nick has exactly the same mind-set as us, which is probably the reason we all gel as a team, and as such the first task he carried out in between cooking the turkey and seeing in the New Year in was to review his Big Race selections from the previous 12 months. The brand new Insider Members Report (Issue 141) is hot off the press and the opening salvo just had to be Nick’s review. Here are a few extracts to whet the appetite:- Club Portfolio – Big Race Analysis 2016 Review Summary – We doubled the profit tally from 2015 from 403.75pts to 851.53pts. So, what did we do differently? Quite simply more bets (1366 vs 871) and a higher ROI (31% v 23%). The ROI improved some 8% on 2015 and we had 79 winners at odds of 10/1 or bigger and 103 winners at odds under 10/1. The strike rate for win (13%) and win/place (23%) roughly stayed the same as 2015. For those of you who enjoy the thrill of a big priced winner we had 24 do the business at 16/1 or bigger odds and 13 who obliged at odds of 20/1 or higher. Highlights in 2016Sunday is meant to be the day of rest but this became one of our cornerstones for 2016 with 303 bets, 42 winners (14% SR), 75 win or place (25% SR), profit +185.60pts, ROI 31%. Irish racing In 2016 we expanded to cover quite a few Irish races. Our tally in Ireland was 242 bets, 35 winners (14% SR), 65 win and place (26% SR), profit +237.58pts, ROI 47%. International racing We took in France, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, the American classics and the Breeders Cup. The performance was 57 bets, 11 winners (19% SR), 18 win and place (32% SR), 148.50pts profit, ROI 130%. Royal Ascot Always a toughie but we smashed it this year when quite a few other tipsters, services and the pros from the racing industry struggled. We ended up 97.25pts to the good at the advised prices over the 5 days and we landed 12 winners. Glorious Goodwood A personal highlight for me as I have never made a profit at this meeting before. At the advised prices we bagged 85.75pts with 11 winners and a further 9 landed the place spoils. These results were amplified as we were covering Galway at the same time where we hit 7 winners and 3 placers for another 81.30pts profit, including Lord Scoundrel @33/1 in the Galway Plate. Over the course of 7 days these two festivals combined for 167pts which made it a week to remember in many ways. Nick is the first to admit that he never rests on his laurels and so he ends his review with thoughts on the coming 12 months. “I do need to state first and foremost that we all manage our expectations, including myself. 2016 was better than I expected. Not one losing month in 12. However, that does not mean we can exceed that in 2017. It’s a new year and a new start. As always, we reset to zero and past exploits will count for nothing. I never set targets other than to achieve a 15 – 20% ROI. In my book this is acceptable and achievable with the right mindset. We bettered this in 2016 (+30% ROI) but anything around 20% will do me and that’s my goal for 2017” Nick’s Big Race Coverage is the flagship of the Betting Insiders Club Portfolio which alongside a vibrant and friendly community/forum and monthly 52 page Members Reports offers a very comprehensive opportunity to take your punting to a new higher level. So if the last 12 months have not delivered on your expectations then now is the perfect time to make a change for the better and join the Betting School Insiders Club. You can find out more here http://bettinginsiders.com. Saturdays racing includes some decent races at Sandown and Wincanton and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 7th Jan Sandown 1.15pm Morning Reggie has won around here off a similar mark and could go well at a price after a pleasing comeback run at Kempton. Mystifiable disappointed last time at Newbury but should strip fitter here and he showed plenty of potential last season as a chaser. Mystifiable @6/1 B365/BFsb Morning Reggie @9/1 Gen Sandown 3.00pm The more rain the better for Cloudy Too and he is 11lb better off with Gas Line Boy so has every chance of reversing that form. He won the Peter March Chase off 1lb higher so he should be competitive off his current mark. At a bigger price Loose Chips can go well at a course he has won at previously. Cloudy Too @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen) Loose Chips @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, Gen) Here’s to a highly profitable 2017! Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

Hats off to Nick Hardman and his Big Race Selections!!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 31st Dec’16) Well we have reached the last betting day of the year and whatever happens today 2016 has been, in our humble opinion, a tremendous one for the Club and in particular the Big Race Coverage for which we cannot praise Nick Hardman enough for his sterling efforts over the past 12 months! We trust that you have also benefited from the regular samples of Nick’s weekend selections and if his exploits have caught your attention you can find out more about his methods in this interesting video. Saturdays racing includes some decent cards at Ascot and Haydock and to say goodbye to 2016 you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention for today by clicking here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 31st Dec Warwick 1.35pm Sunny Ledgend races off the same mark as when a game second on his reappearance behind Yanmare. If he does not bounce then he should be in the mix in a competitive heat. Twirling Magnet is beginning to look well handicapped and should be able to capitalise soon. Twirling Magnet @7/1 Gen Sunny Ledgend @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Gen) Newbury 12.40pm Quite an interesting race with a few chase debutantes but I usually stick with experience and both Aurillac and Potters Legend are running well over fences at the moment. Aurillac @9/2 Gen Potters Legend @9/1 Gen We trust that you all have an enjoyable time seeing in the New Year and are looking forward to what 2017 has in store for us on both a personal and a punting perspective. Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 17th Dec’16)

Last weekend our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, continued his amazing form by landing the winner of the feature race at Cheltenham, the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase. Here is a quick reminder of his thoughts on the event:- “Another Big Race (Cheltenham 1.50pm) covered by the Betting Insiders Report. Kylemore Lough appeals most of those near the top of the market. Frodon will appreciate the return to better ground and is not one to write off yet. King’s Odyssey is unexposed and merits respect also, having won a C&D handicap last season.” Kylemore Lough @8/1 Gen Frodon @10/1 e/w Gen King’s Odyssey @12/1 e/w Gen The outcome led to Frodon becoming only the second four-year-old to win the Big Race at the rewarding odds of 14/1! Nick has been providing his selections and thorough writes ups to the Betting Insiders Club for just a few weeks shy of two years and during that time the members have enjoyed some cracking profits which as we close in on 2016 currently sit at +827 points to advised level stakes (2pts per bet) and available odds. The selections are made available the night before racing to enable the bets to be placed and members can sit back and enjoy the fun of watching them run. Of course we fully appreciate that some folk have challenges with the bookies in these times of restrictive practices but given the nature of the events Nick tackles there are plenty of options available including the exchanges to grab the best average price going. With a return on investment of in excess of 30% there is certainly plenty of cream to work with and feedback from the members tells us that they are very happy campers even if they don’t always get on at the best price. The winner mentioned earlier, Frodon, was originally put up at 12/1 to the members, and even 10/1 in last week’s newsletter and won at an SP of 14/1. Profitable Betting Method Video If Nick’s exploits have caught your attention you can find out more about his methods in this interesting video. Saturdays racing includes some decent cards at Ascot and Haydock and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 17th Dec Ascot 3.00pm The top two in the betting hold solid chances. Go Conquer’s reappearance second to The Present Man has been boosted by the winner going in at a higher level while Ryanair fifth Eduard ran well off a break in excess of 600 days and if he strips fitter here could well show himself to be better than a handicapper. Go Conquer @5/1 Eduard @8/1 Ascot 3.35pm Consul De Thaix is one of a few with untapped potential and as a half brother to Volnaix De Thaix who was a smart hurdler himself. Brain Power beat his stablemate last time and could have more to offer while Diego Du Charmil would be a danger to all if recapturing his Fred Winter form. Consul De Thaix @9/1 Brain Power @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP) Diego Du Charmil @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP) All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team! Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

Becher Chase Profile and Selections

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 3rd Dec’16) Last time around we were able to share our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman’s, key trends and stats for the Hennessy Gold Cup which took place at Newbury on the Saturday. Nick incorporates these into his approach when tackling the big races and festivals and just before we move on to how his final selections for the Hennessy fared you may be interested to view this video that shows how he goes about his business. Profitable Betting Method Video Having applied the key trends to the 20 runner field to try and sort the wheat from the Chaff Nick reached the following conclusion: The Hennessy Gold Cup (Sat 26th Nov – Newbury 15.10pm) The main event and a race we looked at in the Betting Insiders Report for November. The trends qualifiers are Native River and Un Temps Pour Tout. The former makes more appeal off 11-01. Stablemate Theatre Guide has finished 2nd and 3rd on his previous two starts in this race and could give each-way backers a run for their money. At bigger prices Vicente seems to have been a bit ignored in the betting. He is 4 from 8 over fences and is a thorough stayer. He also fits the bill in terms of age, OR and winning form over 3m+. Could go well at a decent price. Native River @6/1 Gen Theatre Guide @18/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 4 places, BFsb) or 16/1 (1/5 odds, 5 places,PP) Vicente @20/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet) or (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP) In the race itself Theatre Guide looked to be getting in to a challenging position by the 14th fence but couldn’t sustain it and weakened 2 out. Similar comments could be applied to Vicente although he fell 2 out, meanwhile the well backed Native River was always to the fore and despite idling after the last he stayed on well to take the winners plaudits! For the coming weekend there is, weather permitting, a cracking card on Saturday at Aintree which features the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase and here are Nick’s key notes on the big race:- Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (13.35 Aintree) I absolutely love this race as it is run over the Grand National fences and almost always attracts a bumper field. The key trainer amongst the entries is Nigel Twiston-Davies who has won this three times since 1998 (twice with Hello Bud). There have been just 3 winning favourites since 1997 and all bar 5 of the last 19 winners came from the top 9 in the market. That can usually take out half the field, but be aware that the last two winners went in at 20/1 and 25/1. We have also had a couple of winners at 33/1 and another at 25/1 since 2001 so this is definitely a race where you can take two or three against the field. From an age perspective we have seen some real old boys win this recently in Oscar Time (13yo) and Hello Bud (as a 12yo and a 14yo). Those aside, the dominant age group is 8yo to 10yo with 14 of the last 19 winners. They do, however, make up the majority of the runners. The 9yo to 10yo age bracket have the best strike rate, combining for 11 winners since 1998. Interestingly, all bar 1 winner since 1997 managed a top 5 finish in their last outing or were pulled up or unseated their rider. Given that a lot of horses may have had their last run in the Grand National I would not be put off by one that fell into the latter two categories. In fact, 9 previous winners since 1997 had contested the Grand National so that is a pretty decent pointer. All bar three winners in that time had raced over at least 3m 5f so this really is a stayers’ race. Going on the most recent trends (since 2008) we have quite a narrow official ratings band that has produced 7 of the last 8 winners. That band is from 130 – 137, the exception being the 148 rated Vic Venturi who won this in 2009. He also carried a big weight of 11st 12lbs in the process and that also stands out amongst the recent winners. The other 7 winners since 2008 all carried under 11st. Horses that raced in the 15 days prior to the Becher Chase should be avoided as they have an overall record of 0-73. A break of 16 – 60 days looks ideal for those horses that have had a run in the current season and those that have had that kind of break have produced 10 winners in the last 19 renewals. A further 6 winners took this on their seasonal reappearance and so lack of a recent run is not a concern. In fact, seasonal debutants are 6-55 (11% strike rate) which is far better than those with a run under their belts. A win over 3 miles or further also looks like a good statistic and accounts for no fewer than 14 of the 19 winners since 1997. Given the special nature of these fences, I tend to look for any horse that has run over them before. That is usually the Grand National or a previous appearance in the Becher Chase itself. I also sit up and take note of whichever horse Sam Waley-Cohen is set to ride. For an amateur he has an exceptional record at Aintree. He has ridden 6 winners from 36 rides there for a level stakes profit of £33.33 and ridden a further 9 into the places which increases profit to £63.55. Here is the trends profile for the past winners of the Becher Chase: • Aged 8yo or 10yo • Top 5 finish LTO, or pulled up or unseated • Top 9 in the betting • Rated 130 – 137 • Carrying under 11st • A break of 16 – 60 days or seasonal reappearance • Ran in the Grand National • Completed over the Grand National fences • Raced over 3m 5f or further • Nigel Twiston-Davies • Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen Nick will be taking the above into the mix when he assesses the main contenders and to find his final selection(s) click here to read on:- Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 3rd Dec The Becher Chase is one of the races we covered in the November Insiders Report. This year is a bit of a mixed bag in terms of horses ticking all the right boxes but the one who ticks plenty and is well handicapped is Alvarado and he goes on the short list. Highland Lodge is being offered up at big price with PaddyPower and although 5lb higher he is still at the right end of weights and ratings scale of previous winners. Vieux Lion Rouge is the final selection who ran well in the Grand National and goes well fresh. Again, he has a nice weight. Alvarado @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, BV) Highland Lodge @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP/SJ) Vieux Lion Rouge @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, WH) All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team! Together We Can Win Darren & Steve

Follow up to last weekends 14/1 winner?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th Nov’16) It didn’t take long for the free Big Race selections to return to their normal level of form with last weekend’s picks nailing one of the Breeders Cup races over at Santa Anita. Here is a quick reminder of our Big Race guru Dr Nick Hardman’s thoughts as to why he could see Obviously running a big race “Santa Anita 9.05pm I think this is the most interesting race on the card due to the unique nature of the track. I have read a lot about horses with speed coming back in trip and being hard to peg back. That’s the angle I’ll play and two who fit the bill are Obviously (adv EW 14/1) and Celestine (adv EW 10/1).” The form book details that although he wasn´t best away (normal for him) he soon recovered to lead, and was then able to control things from there. Things got a bit desperate close to home but he just held on to win by a nose! Nick’s selections cannot win every race but they have been making solid profits for just shy of two years now and you may be interested to watch this video which explains the methods behind them. Profitable Betting Method Video The brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 139) includes Nick’s insightful trends and key stats for a number of the big races due to take place in the coming weeks, one of which is the feature event on Saturday’s top class card at Cheltenham:- BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Sat 12th Nov, 2.25pm Cheltenham) This is a race that has been dominated in recent years by those to the fore in the betting. Six of the last nine renewals have gone to one of the horses in the top three in the betting, the exceptions being Little Josh, Caid Du Berlais and last year’s winner Annacotty. I would certainly concentrate on the top half of the market with the top 8 having supplied all bar two winners since 1997. Eleven of the last 13 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo, the exceptions being Little Josh (8yo) and Caid Du Berlais (5yo). Normal service was resumed in 2015 when Annacotty won at the age of 7 and this race normally goes to a second or third season chaser who is prominent in the betting. Given this event is early in the season there are no surprises to see 10 of the last 19 winners take this first time out and a further 7 winning after a single prep run. Horses having run twice or more already in the season are 2-80. Course form looks a positive with 16 of the last 19 winners having competed in a chase at the previous Cheltenham Festival. 14 of the last 19 winners had previous winning form at Cheltenham over the trip of 2m 4 ½f or further. Caid Du Berlais ran 3rd in the Fred Winter (2013) and 2nd in the Martin Pipe Conditional race (2014) over hurdles so he had plenty of the aforementioned course form. Al Ferof lugged a big weight (11st 8lbs) off a lofty mark of 159 to win this in 2012. That was a bit of a trends buster, the previous five and the next two winners all carried 11st or less and were rated 139 – 148. Eight last time out winners have won the Paddy Power since 1997 (10% strike rate) and a further three winners were runner-up on their previous start (6% strike rate). Although this race is over 2m 4 ½f it is interesting to note that no fewer than 15 of the last 19 winners had actually raced over 3 miles or further during their career. Only 1 winner since 1997 has been trained in Ireland. Those trainers with a good record in this race include Paul Nicholls (2 wins in the last 4 years), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 wins in the last 8 years) and Jonjo O’Neill (2 wins in the last 10 years). Philip Hobbs and Alan King have had a number of placed runners in recent times, often at decent each-way prices and the latter went one better when saddling Annacotty last year. • Aged 6yo or 7yo • No more than one run in the current season • Top 8 in the betting • Rated 139 – 148 • Carrying 11st or less • Ran at the 2016 Cheltenham festival • Won at Cheltenham previously • Top 2 finish LTO • Raced over 3m or further • Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies Nick will be taking the above into consideration when settling on his final selections which you can find below… Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 12th Nov The trends qualifiers are Double Shuffle, Aso, Stilletto and As De Mee. Of the quartet I think As De Mee looks to hold a decent chance as he ran More Of That to a couple of lengths here last year, has distance winning form and ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival (another stat many previous winners have). I think Aso is an interesting runner who has form ties with Ballyalton (Festival winner) and Fox Norton. Any rain would help his cause no end and he could outrun his odds if ready to go. I will also have a saver on Frodon who Paul Nicholls speaks glowingly about and gets a handy weight for age allowance and Harry Cobden’s 3lb claim. Frodon @8/1 Gen As De Mee @8/1 Gen Aso @16/1 e/w Gen (1/4 odds, 6 places, BV, 5pl B365) All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team! Together We Can Win Darren & Steve