The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th March’17)

Last weekend’s Big Race selections both ran solid races with Double Shuffle just finding Pilgrims Bay too good by 1/2L in a battling finish whilst Ballykan wasn’t too far behind in 5th place.

You can feel the tension building as the 2017 Cheltenham Festival looms large and with many of the main bookmakers offering Non-runner/No bet this time around we thought we would share one of Dave “Chutney” Massey’s “Three to Follow”, for the prestigious event.

Three to Follow at Festival Time

Solomn Grundy (Neil Mulholland) – Likely target: Pertemps Final – Gen 16/1 (EW, 4pl, 1/4 odds) – This lightly raced and improving sort is just the type that you want for a race like the Pertemps, and the good news is that, having won the Newbury qualifier back in November, he’s already qualified, however what’s less certain is whether he will get in off his current mark of 134. He showed promise for David Pipe before being moved to Neil Mulholland by Roger Brookhouse, he’s done nothing but improve since joining the team at Conkwell Grange and still appears to have plenty left to offer.

Despite pulling hard at Cheltenham, he still ran on strongly to claim second behind the well-handicapped Behind Time, form that has worked out well with third home Call To Order and fourth home Ballyarthur both winners since. He was then upped in trip to 3m for that Newbury race, where he reversed form with Behind Time in no uncertain terms, despite again being very keen in rear for much of the contest. But he travelled so well through the field when making his effort in a most eye-catching style that was so impressive to watch. It marked him out as well in front of his mark too, and the form had a boost when second home Shantou Bob took a good quality contest at Chepstow recently.

He lost little in defeat when dropped back in trip at Wetherby on his last start, trying to give previous winner Agincourt Reef well over a stone in weight, and only narrowly going down by a short head. The way he was outpaced there suggests the step back up to three miles will suit, and the guaranteed big field for the Pertemps will give him plenty of cover and chance to settle better. Last-to-first tactics are never easy to pull off in big races, but this horse has the talent and given luck in running, should go close.

The above plus the other two of David’s trio of selections for the Festival are all priced at double figure odds and in addition to EW singles they lend themselves to a potentially lucrative multiple bet in the form of an EW “Trixie” (3 doubles & a treble) which at current odds could yield a 3K+ return to an 8 quid stake!

The “Three to Follow at Festival Time” was part of the comprehensive coverage recently published in the Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 142), you can find out more here.

There are some decent cards on Saturday including the jumping action from Newbury and Doncaster and to find a sample of what has caught the eye of our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 4th March’17
Newbury 3.15pm
13 of the last 14 winners have been aged 6yo to 8yo and that narrows the field to just 5 runners. Add to the fact that Paul Nicholls has won 7 of the last 9 renewals then Vibrato Valtat and More Bucks are the obvious trends horses.
Vibrato Valtat @8/1 (Lad/BB)
More Buck’s @12/1 (Gen)


Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Free BetBright Chase Trends/Tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 25th Feb’17)
Last weekend we shared our resident Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s key trends for the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock and his final selections ran decent races to finish 3rd and 6th of the 13 that went to post.

Vintage Clouds saw the longer trip out well without getting close to challenge the eventual winner and runners up whilst Kruzhlinin make a bad blunder 3 out which put paid to his chance. You can’t win them all and Nick’s followers have enjoyed a solid start to the third campaign with over 80 points profit banked in less than 2 months combined with a commendable +26% ROI.

You can find out more about his winning Big Race methods in the interesting video.

Once again the UK weather is taking its toll on the horse racing action with Thursday’s card at Huntingdon having to be called off, hopefully Saturdays racing will get the green light as Kempton stage a quality meeting which features the Grade 3 BetBright Handicap Chase.

This particular race was covered by Nick in his Big Race Trends article for the Betting Insiders Club Report (Issue 142) and a snapshot of his findings were as follows:-

BetBright Chase Kempton 3.35pm

The BetBright Chase (formerly known as the Racing Post Chase and briefly known as the Racing Plus Chase) is run over 3 miles at Kempton. Outsider of the field Bally Legend won at an unfancied 28/1 in 2014 and Opening Batsman at 12/1 provided young trainer Harry Fry with his first big winner of his training career in 2013. Razor Royale at 11/1 and Nacarat at 10/1 also provided punters with double figure winners in 2010 and 2009. However, prior to Nacarat’s 2009 win we had seen a string of single priced winners (odds ranging from 3/1 to 9/1) going all the way back to Mudahim who won at 14/1 in 1997. That statistic was upheld by Rocky Creek in 2015 who duly obliged at 8/1 and 2016 winner Theatre Guide at 6/1. Eleven winners since 1997 won their previous start and 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top three places last time out.

8yo’s have the best record in the race (7-67; 10% win rate) followed by 7yo runners (3-45; 7% win rate). 9yo runners are 4-54 (7% win rate) but they include the last three winners. Four of first five home in 2015’s renewal were aged 9yo+ and the top two last year were aged 9yo and 10yo, so we may see the tide turning towards the more experienced runners. Philip Hobbs stands out a mile as the top trainer but is without a runner this time. Paul Nicholls trained the winner in 2008 and 2015 and the runner up in 2014, 2013 and 2007, together with the 3rd placed horse in 2009, 2008 and 2006. Horses that have run well in this race one year often put in a good performance in following years. Two-time winner Nacarat also finished 2nd and 3rd in the two years in between his victories and Simon made a bold effort to retain his crown in 2008 (finished 4th) having won this in 2007. Bally Legend followed up his victory in 2014 with a creditable 3rd in 2015. Opening Batsman was runner-up in 2016, having won the race himself in 2013.

Bally Legend bucked many trends when landing the spoils in 2014 and his winning mark of 138 was the lowest since Gunther McBride won off 120 back in 2002. I would be inclined to look further up the ratings and horses rated 143+ have been successful in 14 of the last 20 renewals. Horses rated 150+ won in 2015, 2012, 2008, 2005, 2004 and 2000. The bracket that has produced the most winners is 140 -147 which has provided us with 10 of the last 20 and 8 of those were rated 143 -147. Top weights have a remarkable record in the race. Going back to 1997 the record of top and joint-top weights reads 12033210132110102210030. Pretty impressive stuff and I would recommend making an assessment of the chances of the top weighted horse when it comes to finding a suitable selection for this race.

There have been 4 winning fav’s since 1997 and a further 5 winning second fav’s. The top four in the betting have produced 15 of the last 20 winners and only two have come from outside the top six in the market in that time. Race fitness looks a strong trend with horses having had at least two seasonal starts accounting for all bar four since 1997. Interestingly horses that had had as many as 6 previous runs that season are 5-13 (38% win rate) and with 5 starts are 3-33 (9% SR). I would say a minimum of 2 seasonal runs is a starting point.

Twelve winners since 1997 had previous winning form over 3 miles and further and all bar two in that time had won a race over a minimum distance of 2m 5f. Having put all that information into the melting pot we are left with the following trends:

• Top 3 finish LTO (preferably LTO winner)
• Previous form in the race (ideally top 4 finish)
• Rated 140+ (ideally rated 143 -147)
• Top 4 in the betting
• Minimum 2 previous seasonal runs (ideally 5 or 6)
• Won a race over 2m 5f or further (preferably 3 miles or further)
• Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls

Nick will be taking the above trends into consideration to help narrow down the field to a shortlist before settling on his final selection(s) for the big race. To find out what will be carrying his support click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 25th Feb

Kempton 3.35pm
One from the Insiders Report and Double Shuffle ticks plenty of boxes so heads the shortlist. Ballykan also fits the bill except he is outside the top 4 in the betting but makes each-way appeal as he continues to run well. He was fourth in this last year and could well make the frame again.
Double Shuffle @5/1 Gen
Ballykan @12/1 e/w (3 places, 1/4 odds)

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Can Nick follow up last weekends haul (+80pts)

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th Feb’17)
Last weekend’s free tips came courtesy of our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, and all three ran solid races in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Clyne (3rd 6/1) deserves plenty of credit having chased the strong early gallop whilst Song Light (adv EW) grabbed place spoils after moving well under a ground-saving ride and only found a trio of well-handicapped performers too good. Boite was prominent for a long way and wasn’t beaten far in 8th place.

As we often say you can’t win them all but Nick’s followers still enjoyed a bumper weekend with seven winners/placers from the 22 that ran and over 80pts profit to advised stakes and quoted odds. Of course we recognise that different folk will have obtained different totals depending on which books they have to work with etc. With that in mind we noted the readily available prices (at least 3 different mainstream bookies) at 8am on both Sat/Sun and even where the original top price may have been trimmed (although Perfect Candidate drifted to 12/1) from the night before when Nick posted up the selections you could still have achieved over 65pts profit.

Race Profile VideoSo plenty to go around whichever way you cut it and if that has piqued your interest you may like to watch this video which describes Nick’s methods in detail.

The coming weekend sees some decent jumps racing from Ascot and Haydock and it is at the latter that we turn our attention to with Nick’s Big Race Trends for the Betfred Grand National Trial:-

Grand National Trial (Grade 3 handicap chase; 3m 5f); Haydock 3.15pm Sat

The first thing to note is that 9 of the last 11 renewals have been run on going officially described as heavy and have favoured those carrying lighter weights. This time around the forecast going is good-soft so it may not have as much bearing as previous recent runnings.

There have been 3 winning favourites since 1997 and a further 3 who were second favourite. Two of those winning fav’s came in 2013 (Well Refreshed) and in 2012 (Giles Cross). Despite that, this does appeal as a race for the each-way player with 12 of the last 19 coming from those horses who were between 5th and 8th in the betting. This is reflected by the SPs of the winners with 8 of the last 14 victorious horses being sent off at odds of 10/1 to 18/1. In recent times, Rambling Minster was the biggest priced winner at 18/1 in 2009, followed by Rigadin de Beauchene @16/1 in 2014 and Ossmoses @14/1 in 2006. Horses sent off at 14/1 to 20/1 are 3-52 and those sent off at the really big prices (22/1 or higher) are 0-55.

Since the turn of the millennium the younger horses have been largely put in their place by their older counterparts with just two 7yo and three 8yo winners. Five of the last 6 have all been aged 9yo or older and the age bracket 9yo – 11yo has provided us with 11 of the last 16 winners. Another interesting statistic is that a break of at least 1 month (31 days) has benefited 15 of the last 19 winners. The number of runs in the current season appears to have little bearing on the chances of winning this race. Three horses have taken this on their seasonal bow (from the 10 that tried to do so) and horses have won this on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and even their 6th run of the season.

When it comes to training a staying chaser then Venetia Williams is up there with the best. She trained the 1-2 in this race in 2014 to add to her impressive record that has seen her train the runner-up in 2013 and 2008 and the third placed horse in 2007. Not surprisingly, Paul Nicholls has a decent record in the race having trained the winner Shotgun Willy in 2003 and has since followed that with a 4th in 2005, 2nd in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and 2nd again in 2012. One trainer we have to throw into the mix is Kerry Lee who took this race last year along with the 2015 Welsh National and the 2016 Classic Chase at Warwick.

All bar four of the winners since 1997 had previously raced over 3m 5f or further and 16 of the last 19 had won a race over at least 3 miles. Fourteen of the last 19 had finished in the top two last time out so it may pay to side with a horse with excellent recent form. Those that completed their last start but finished outside the top three are 1-84. There are no firm trends with regards to official ratings (OR) with horses taking this race with an OR as low as 121 and as high as 151. However the last 8 winners were all rated 129+. All that gives us a nice profile of the typical winner:

• Carrying 11-0 or less (10-0 to 10-05 if the going is heavy)
• Rated 129+
• Top two finish LTO
• Odds between 10/1 to 18/1
• Aged 9yo to 11yo
• Not raced in last 31 days
• Won a race over 3m or further
• Raced over 3m 5f or further
• Trained by Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell or Kerry Lee

Nick will be using the above trends to help with his deliberations and to find out his final selection(s) for the big race click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 18th Feb
Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Clouds was in the process of running a stormer from 6lb out of the handicap in the Peter Marsh Chase behind Bristol De Mai and Otago Trail and compensation could await. Kruzhlinin has improved remarkably since switching to Phillip Hobbs and can also go well. He won a stamina sapping hurdles race here when only a handful finished and that bodes well for this trip.
Vintage Clouds @8/1 Gen
Kruzhlinin @15/2 Gen

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Hot off the press – Insiders Report

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 11th Feb’17)
Last time around we highlighted a potential opportunity to profit from research carried out for the Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 141) in which the author Liam noted how many matches involving Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Werder Bremen and Valencia ended with both teams getting on the score sheet. Well we got pretty close to a clean sweep last weekend with 3 of the 4 following suit and the one that did not Valencia (playing against Eibar) set themselves a very difficult task after having a player sent off just before the half-time whistle.

It is potential nuggets like these that can be found in abundance in the Insiders Reports month in month out, and the very latest edition (Issue 142) is literally hot off the press.

With the 2017 Cheltenham Festival moving ever closer this month’s edition includes Alan Dudman’s (Betting.betfair.com) in depth review of the Novice events whilst “Chutney Dave” Massey offers up his three to follow at the prestigious meeting and Josh Wright chips in with a plethora of micro angles to help dissect the four days of scintillating action at Prestbury Park. The horse racing section also includes Nick Hardman’s Big Race Trends, the next instalment of the informative “Through the Card” series and a guest author, Chris Worrall (www.geegeez.co.uk), taking over the reins for the Research Corner offering.

The other popular punting sports are also well catered for with a trading review of the Women’s Australian Open Tennis along with the latest La Liga news from our Man in Spain and plenty of football punting pointers covering the Premier League and European Competitions. The line-up is completed with the latest news from the diligent testing team and further risk free punting techniques from our resident Arbitrage Guru.

We firmly believe that this latest report provides an interesting read and offers up plenty of fresh angles to potentially exploit on the continuing journey of profitable punting; you can grab a copy and also find out more about the Insiders Club here.

There are some cracking races scheduled for Saturday’s meeting at Newbury as well as the supporting cast at Warwick and Uttoxeter and you can see what has caught the eye of our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, by reading on here:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 11th Feb
Newbury 3.35pm
One from the Insiders Report and a few who qualify on the trends including no fewer than five of the top seven in the betting. Of those at an each-way price I think Song Light has place prospects on the back of his third in the Greatwood Hurdle. William H Bonney is also of interest but Alan King has said he would have preferred another week between his last race and this. Clyne is 5lb well in on ratings and if his second to the New One is not false form then he should be in the mix. I’ll take those two from the trends horses and throw in Boite at a huge price who should be better back down at 2 miles and could well outrun his odds.
Clyne @7/1 Win (Gen)
Song Light @12/1 e/w (Gen, 1/4 odds, 4 places)
Boite @33/1 e/w (Gen, 1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Fancy an Acca?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th Feb’17)
Last weekend’s featured race proved to be elusive on the winner front after More Bucks fell and Singlefarmpayment who had been creeping closer was unfortunately brought down 5 from home. The eventual winner, Royal Vacation, looks to be heading to the Cheltenham Festival with connections mentioning the RSA Chase after his impressive win at the track.

You can’t win them all, in fact our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, drew a blank at the Cheltenham meeting but his approach of tackling the better quality races, wherever they are run, ultimately proved to be profitable once again thanks to weekend winners such as Mia’s Storm (adv EW 16/1), Upsilon Bleu (adv 7/1) and Tonto’s Spirit (adv EW 16/1).

How to Race Profile for ProfitYou can find out more about Nick’s methods in this interesting video.

For the coming weekend the Insiders Club Big Race Coverage features the Irish Grand National Trial over at Punchestown on Sunday so by way of a change for a flutter on Saturday we have an interesting football piece which was recently published in the Members Report, over to Liam:-

Football Punting – Goals Down Under
If, like me, you will literally give any football match shown on television a quick look (and you have access to BT Sport), then you are bound to have come across the A League in Australia. The standard leaves a lot to be desired, but those Aussies sure serve up plenty of entertainment.

Melbourne City and Perth Glory are currently fourth and fifth in the table – two teams that do not look like mounting a championship challenge, nor do they appear to be under threat of relegation. But what they do provide is goals, and lots of them. They are a dream for the both teams to score market.

At the time of writing the two sides have contested 12 league matches, and they and their opposition have both found the net in 10 of them. So, it was no surprise when they faced off on December 27th, the game ended in a 3-3 draw – certainly more entertaining than I expect Southampton and Leicester to be later this month.

Two other teams that you probably know much more about that are worth backing in this particular market are Werder Bremen and Valencia. Both teams have scored in 14 of 16 matches involving the German side, while for the Spaniards it’s 13 from 15 – both comfortably over 85%.

Long story short, a weekly both teams to score accumulator including matches involving Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Werder Bremen and Valencia is likely to pay out more often that it does not.

This weekend the above highlighted teams are playing as follows:

Sat 4th
(0850) Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1100) Perth Glory v Newcastle (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1945) Valencia v Eibar (Btts – Gen 4/6)

Sun 5th
(1430) Augsburg v Werder Bremen (Btts – Gen 4/5)

Now using the generally available odds the 4 leg acca combining each match “both teams to score – Yes” works out at a shade over 11/2 (Decimal 6.76) or you could play it as 4 trebles and 1 acca at split stakes. For the latter if 3 of the 4 come in you won’t be far off covering your outlay. Decision time….be bold or play it safer? Your call!!

Of course it wouldn’t be a regular weekend without a few Saturday snippets from the Big Race Guru himself so click here to read on and grab some of Nicks free selections:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 4th Feb
Sandown 3.00pm
This might take some getting if the ground remains heavy so I am going with a couple at big prices, who act on the ground, get the trip and have proven stamina. First up is Desert Sensation for Dr Richard Newland. He has 5 lengths to find with Rolling Dylan but is 5lbs better off so there should not be much between them. Ballyculla has been chasing for the last few seasons but is well handicapped on his old hurdles form and he gets a feather weight with a 7lb claimer on board.
Ballyculla @25/1 (EW 1/5 odds, 4 places, Sky/PP)
Desert Sensation @9/1 Gen

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve