Free Tennis and Racing tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 20th May’17)
Last week’s selections couldn’t make any impact in the Victoria Cup at Ascot which was won in tidy fashion by Fastnet Tempest as high numbers came out on top for the fourth year running.

Nick Hardman’s York Dante coverage over the last few days has seen a return to normal service with winners such as Zain Arion (adv EW) at 20/1 and Here Comes When (adv EW 16/1). You can find out more about Nick’s winning approach in this interesting video.

There are some decent meetings scheduled for Saturday with Newbury hosting the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and also Newmarket with a 7 race card although the current weather will make them tricky punting propositions with the very soft underfoot conditions.

A little later on we will be sharing a few snippets from Nicks Big Race Coverage but just before we move on to those we have a quick update on the latest news from the Betting Insiders Club.

Insiders Club news

The comprehensive Club package includes full access to Nick Hardman’s “Big Race Coverage” which has been making solid profits for just shy of 2 ½ years. Alongside these flagship tips there is a vibrant and friendly community/forum where members share their ideas and we test out new strategies in live trials. The 3rd aspect is the monthly 52 page report which contains articles written by a team of industry renowned authors such as Alan Dudman (Betting.betfair), Josh Wright (.racingtoprofit), and Andrew David (bettingdoctor).

In the brand new report (Issue 145) Gary Boswell shares his thoughts on 5 massively priced contenders for the Ladies French Tennis Open which gets underway on May 28th. Gary has a cracking track record of nailing big priced winners on the Ladies Grand Slams and the following is an extract of his comprehensive review:

Roll on the Garros
The love affair with the French women’s event started for me in 2010 when I landed the Italian Francesca Schiavone at 149/1 pre-tournament and basically launched my tipping career. And then spent the next few years wondering how on earth I’d done it and agonising over whether I’d ever be able to land such a monster again! I gradually did so by realising that surface in women’s tennis is key. You get the odd champ over the years that can win on all surfaces but even, Graf, Serena, Navratilova, Evert, Sharapova – they all still have their preferences and clay is often the one that causes the biggest headache.

And now we also have a Serenaless tournament as the remarkable genius is away bringing new life into this troubled world. She will be missed at 2017 Garros but it does of course slightly increase the % chance of landing an outsider again. They occur in women’s grand slams on a 1:5 ratio in recent years and are therefore always worth seeking.
My Number 1 fancy is currently priced at 150/1 and the next strongest is 125/1. That leaves 3, 4 and 5 who all have solid claims:-

Number three: DARIA KASATKINA
(current price 33/1)
The teenager’s success in Monterrey was the first sign that clay might be her thing. She could be that future champ on all surfaces sort, too soon to know for sure. Ranked 29 now and very much on the bookmaker’s radar as a must protect ourselves against the could anything factor but on my radar for the same sort of reasons really. Her 3rd round appearance at the 2016 Garros was her best yet but is also consistent with the upward curve.

Number four: ANASTASIA PAVLYUCHENKOVA (current price 66/1)
Professed clay court preference. Another slight Russian in and outer but in form and winning in 2017 and a quarter finalist in 2011. Ranked 16 now and one of those I’ve ummed and arred about as to whether she has what it takes. Her old young Goth was symptomatic for me that she would remain flighty but there does seem a maturity now. The vision of a slam win as a possibility has I think occurred to her.

Number five: ALISON VAN UYTVANCK (current price 500/1)
The real left fielder and the one I could be wrong about but a test of my consistency and perseverance that I stick with Alison. May have to qualify. Made QF in 2015 but has done precious little since. Had her share of injury and subsequent self-doubt but that’s how it can go. Still very young and that 2015 run did show she was a maybe on the surface. Not a typical clay courter. Tall and strong. Her development needing to come in the between the ears department no doubt. But still on my radar. And of course her price is the biggest tempter of all. She fits that bill of looking an unlikely one.

Of course horse racing remains the number one sport for the majority of our members but a balanced and profitable portfolio approach should be receptive to other punting activities and for that reason we have plenty of coverage on football and tennis.

If your current punting is not delivering the level of returns you would hope for then now could be the perfect time to make a positive change and check out the Insiders Club Package.

Click here to read on and find out what Nick fancy’s from the racing action on Saturday.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 20th May’17
Newbury 2.55pm
There are a few strong trends for this race and having gone through them we are left with Mucho Applause and Duke Of Bronte. Contrast looks like he really needs a step up in trip and is interesting with Ryan Morre booked.
Mucho Applause @4/1
Duke Of Bronte @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Contrast @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

NZ to wrap up the series and the Kohli caveat

A very small win last week courtesy of Leicester, who truth be told, won very convincingly. If you were to choose the most basic football betting strategy that was likely to show you a profit it would be this: back them at home, oppose them when they’re away and don’t bet at all on the weekend before a Champions League match (which by the way would include this weekend).

I’ve said to Sports Betting Pays subscribers over the past couple of weeks that this India v NZ series has got the better of me regarding the match winner market and that remarkably I’ve managed to back NZ on the two occasions they lost and refrained from backing them on the two occasions they won.

Mind you, we’re still showing a decent profit on the series after siding with Tom Latham on Sunday at 5.0 for top NZ bat and Mishra this week at 4.5 for top Indian bowler.

So as we head into the decider of what’s been a really good series we have to ask ourselves the question: so what’s our next move?

If you’ve been following this service for any longer than two weeks, you should know the answer straight away. We’re guided by the price. And that obviously means backing NZ at 3.05 rather than India at 1.48.

There are three main reasons why NZ are huge value.

1) Just look at the current score. It’s 2-2.

2) The prices might have been acceptable as being accurate if Ashwin, Jadeja and Shami- their three best bowlers had been around. They’re not and even though I haven’t mentioned this before, they’ve also been without the super-experienced big-hitting Suresh Raina, though he may admittedly play in this match.

This all boils down to the fact that these are two evenly-matched sides and that the gulf in price isn’t justified.

Now to the caveat: Virat Kohli. I’m very afraid of him.

Not in the sense that I’d fear for my life if I saw him in a dark alley. Rather that in the sense that whatever the game situation is and I’ve backed the side that he’s not on when he’s at the crease, I worry. He’s that good.

Look at just the facts from this series. On two occasions he kicked on and India won both times.

On two occasions he failed and so did India.

My initial temptation was to back him for man-of-the-match but if he gets a huge score, NZ win and he’s not MOM because 95% of the time the MOM comes from the winning side, then we will have waste a betting point.

So I’ll back him instead for top India batsman at a shorter 3.5 and if he goes on ‘to do a Kohli’ we’ll still be up 0.5 points if he does get top bat honours… and NZ lose.

There is of course also the possibility that he’s top bat and NZ win anyway. Which would suit us just fine.

Watford are doing pretty well at the moment and are up against a Hull side in awful form and missing their best player in Robert Snodgrass. A few weeks ago the pattern was that Watford needed to score two or three to win a match because they couldn’t keep clean sheets. But they then kept two in a row (both away) so that certainly makes me more confident about backing them.

And I’ll combine that with Juventus to win. Napoli have a couple of key players missing and Juve will be viewing this match as arguably the most important one of the whole league campaign. No resting players ahead of Champions League and a full Juve side is a very strong side indeed.

2pts Back New Zealand to beat India @ 3.05 on Betfair

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/cricket/market/1.127909764

1pt Back Virat Kohli to be Top Indian batsman @ 3.5 with Paddypower

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-new-zealand-odi-series/5th-odi/top-india-batsman

1pt Back Watford to beat Hull (1.75) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/watford-v-hull/winner + Juventus to beat Napoli (1.83) http://www.oddschecker.com/football/italy/serie-a/juventus-v-napoli/winner @ 3.2 with Ladbrokes

Malta to Chin the Scots

Here’s our weekly sports bet from James Pacheco of Sports Betting Pays, find out more about his excellent service at http://sportsbettingpay.uk

Malta to put up a real fight against Scotland

Our five week winning run came to an end last week but there were plenty of profits secured before that so we go into the international football weekend in good shape.

I’ve thought long and hard about how to play Malta v Scotland and my next best bet would have been to go with it being a low-scoring match with under 1.5 goals appealing at 3.2 with Betfred. But I’m actually quietly confident Malta can get something from this game.

It’s a cliché to say there are no easy games in international football these days but from amongst the so-called minnows, Malta are one of the toughest to beat. With the exception of a 6-0 drubbing away at the Czech Republic, results during last season included a 2-1 defeat away at Austria, a 1-0 loss away in Croatia, a heroic 1-0 loss in Italy and a 2-0 defeat in Norway. They also drew at home to Azerbaijan and Moldova. All of those sides who beat them last season are stronger than Scotland and as you can see, the margins of defeat were very, very narrow.

They’re also far tougher at home and they will be eying this fixture against Scotland as a fantastic opportunity to cause an upset. It’s worth remembering that Scotland were the only Home Nation not to qualify for Euro 2016 and it’s not that difficult to see why. Whereas every one of the other four have at least one real star who can make the difference and at least three or four other really good Premier League players, I’m not sure you can say the same about Scotland. Naismith, Fletcher, Snodgrass, Ritchie, Phillips, Maloney, Martin…all players doing their bit at lowly Premier League clubs or good Championship clubs but no-one of whom you can say ‘’Í really fancy this guy to have a really good game tonight.’’

I also think Scotland, a bit like Celtic, are a side for heroic performances against favourites on home soil but vulnerable away from home against just about anyone. They’ve won just two of their last 8 matches away across qualifiers and friendlies- a 6-0 win against Gibraltar (who are much weaker than Malta) and a shock 1-0 win over the Czech Republic in a friendly. That run included a 1-0 defeat in Georgia.

So all in all I think Scotland can be caught cold here against an improving side who will relish playing on home soil against a side they’ll be showing little respect for. That said, a 1-0 Scotland win isn’t out of the equation nor is a 2-1 win so I’ll play it a little safe and side with Malta +1 meaning we’ll get our money back if Malta lose by one and win if it’s a home win or a draw.

2pts Back Malta on the +1 Asian Handicap @ 2.2 with Bet365*

 

*To make it simpler for everyone, from now on I’ll be using a 1-4 points system rather than a 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1 point system but the concept is the same.

 

Cricket and Football Tips

Friday night cricket and Sunday afternoon Swedish football

We’re in Sweden again this weekend and there’s a good bet when Hammarby play hosts to AIK on Sunday afternoon. AIK are fifth in the table with 24 points while their hosts are 14th of 16 teams with 14 points.

AIK have a decent record on the road with four wins, one draw and two losses whilst Hammarby have predictably struggled on home soil with two wins, four draws and one loss from their seven home fixtures.

So all of this begs the question: why aren’t AIK relatively warm favourites to win the game rather than the outsiders? The answer isn’t to be found in their head-to-head record because Hammarby have won just two of the 14 matches they’ve played against them on home soil, lost eight and drawn two.

The draw is a lively runner with roughly a third of the hosts’ matches this season and a further third of all matches between these two (counting matches at all venues) ending in a stalemate. But so rare are the occurrences of a Hammarby win in this fixture that AIK on the Draw/No bet market almost feels like a free bet.

But before that, we also have a good betting opportunity in the Friday night T20 blast. For me Nottinghamshire are pound for pound the best balanced side of any in this tournament with all the boxes ticked in terms of a successful T20 outfit.

Explosive hitters at the top of the order (Riki Wessels and Michael Lumb), and a classy, big-hitting middle order with Brendan Taylor, Daniel Christian and Samit Patel, the last two also fine bowlers in this format.

Harry Gurney (12 England caps) provides  the threat with the ball in terms of pace and if they were missing a world class performer in the spin department earlier in the competition, they’re certainly not missing one now. Imran Tahir, he of the 197 T20 wickets is there as an overseas player.

Warwickshire aren’t too far behind them in the table but blow a little too hot and cold for my liking. They conceded over 200 runs on Tuesday night to Northants and came nowhere near chasing them. Jeevan Patel is their class act with the ball and Ricki Clarke seems to take a lot of wickets this season but that’s not enough and they’ll have their work cut out against an all-star Notts batting line batting up.

0.5pts Back AIK on the Draw/No Bet market @ 2.04 on Betfair

0.75pts Back Nottinghamshire to beat Warwickshire @ 1.8 with Betfair/Ladbrokes/Bet365

Free Racing + European Football Tips!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 20th Feb)

Last weekend the free tips were provided courtesy of one of our regular contributors Nick Hardman whose speciality is “Big Race Trends” and boy was he on the money this time around!

In his usual thorough manner he researched the past winners of the Betfair Hurdle to uncover the ideal winners profile and in his conclusion he strongly suggested that the race would most likely go to a decent priced runner that could be backed Each-Way at double figure odds. In addition there were 3 entries from trainers with a solid record in the race and one of those, Starchitect, actually traded as short as 1.58 in-running before finishing a gallant second at 16/1.

Given there were 22 entries Nick settled on 4 contenders that he felt held the right mix of credentials and one of those Agrapart (adv EW 20/1) turned the race into a procession by romping home by 11 lengths!

Profitable Betting Method VideoIf that weren’t enough Nick’s coverage of the other big races on the same day which were provided to members of the Betting Insiders Club first thing on Saturday morning also included Count Guido Deiro @14/1 e/w – Won 11/1 and Extreme Impact – Won 5/1!

You can find out more about Nick’s profitable race profiling techniques in this interesting video.

For this weekend we have enlisted the help of a sports betting expert, Jamie Pacheco, who has been sharing his tips with Club members for a number of months and they have been providing a very healthy profit combined with a cracking 37% ROI.

European Football

Pacos Ferreira v Benfica (Saturday 18:30)
Many predicted a tough season for Benfica after the shock summer departure of their talismanic coach Jorge Jesus to city rivals Sporting Lisbon. But in mid-February, they’re not only in the Champions League Last 16 but in good shape to go through, after a last-gasp 1-0 win over Zenit on Tuesday night. In the league they’re second, three points behind Sporting.

On Saturday they play Pacos Ferreira, a decent side sitting in sixth but 21 points off Benfica. Benfica matches have been high-scoring of late with their last seven league matches all going over 2.5 goals. In five of those seven they conceded, whereas for Pacos Ferreira seven of their last nine have been matches in which both teams have scored. Benfica’s last four away matches ended in wins by 4-1, 2-1, 4-1 and 6-0 meaning Benfica have no trouble scoring plenty away from home. Benfica have two goal machines in Jonas and Mitroglou. In Benfica’s last nine league matches Jonas has scored at least two goals on five occasions and Mitroglou has now scored in his last six league games; in one of them he scored a hat-trick.

1pt Back ‘Yes’ in ‘both teams to score’ with UniBet @ 2.30.
1pt Back Konstantinos Mitroglou to score @2.38 with Bet365
0.5 pts Back Oliveira Jonas to score two goals or more @ 5.0 with William Hill

Malaga v Real Madrid (Sunday 15:00)
Real’s win over Roma in midweek wasn’t good for this column but it featured a curious stat. It was the first time in 18 wins that they weren’t leading a half-time before going on to win. Remarkable, eh? In fairness that run included 8 matches that they didn’t  go on to win and of course if you buy the theory that Real are very inconsistent away from home then you may doubt that they’ll win this match at all. But Real are on 53 points, Malaga are on 30 and Real have beaten them in four of their last 5 visits to Malaga. And guess what? In all four of those five away wins, they were leading at half-time.

1pt Back Real Madrid/Real Madrid on the half time/full time market @ 2.80 with Coral.

Finally I couldn’t leave you without a racing selection for this afternoons racing.

Nick Hardman has bets in six races for Betting School Insiders members and I’m going to share the shortest priced of those with free readers.

Ascot 1.15pm

Yala Enki has already beaten Duke Des Champs comprehensively and showed a willing attitude to land the Lanzarote Hurdle and ran even better in defeat in a Grade 3 next time out. He could gallop his rivals into submission over this shorter trip.

Yala Enki @7/2

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve