Wokingham Stakes – key trends & free tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 24th June’17)
Royal Ascot has provided plenty of excitement mixed in with a few shocks such as the Aiden O’Brien hotpots Churchill and Order of St George getting turned over. Betting Insiders members have access to Big Race Guru Nick Hardman’s selections and at the time of penning this they are plenty of points ahead after the first 3 days.

Fair to say that it has been a tough meeting to fathom but given the quality of the runners in every single race that has to be expected. Nick’s picks have delivered a mix of big priced placers to keep things ticking over and also landed a very handy 25/1 winner with Zhui Feng in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup!

For the current Members Report Nick contributed a comprehensive piece covering the key trends for a number of the feature races at the Royal meeting and each day he uses these as the start point for his deliberations. Below is the summary behind his selections for the aforementioned Royal Hunt Cup:-

Weds – Ascot 5.00pm
One from the Insiders Report and the trends qualifiers are Fastnet Tempest, Cote D’Azur and GK Chesterton. I will also throw in Zhui Feng who only falls down on one stat and has often run well in these big field handicaps. A few bookies go 6 places

You can find out more about his Big Race method via this interesting video.

Saturday sees the conclusion of this year’s Royal Ascot and the penultimate race of the meeting is the 6f cavalry charge known as the Wokingham Stakes and the following are Nick’s key trends.

The Wokingham Stakes (6f handicap for 3yo+)
Like many of the handicap races at the Royal Meeting, it usually attracts a bumper field, close to 30 runners. John Berry trained the winner twice with Selhurstpark Flyer in 1998 and 1999 but since then no one has repeated that feat. One interesting fact about this race is that there was a dead heat in 2003 when Fayr Jag and Ratio both passed the line together.

All bar one of the winners since 1999 finished in the top six last time out. Those that did not are 1-178. Sixteen of the last twenty finished first or second on their last start, so look for a horse in form.

Favourites have done quite well with four successful jollies in the last fifteen years, most recently Laddies Poker Two in 2010. Those to the fore in the betting do produce the majority of winners with 17 of the last 20 winners coming from the top 8 in the market.

We do get some big priced winners in this race so again do not be afraid of taking one at fairly large odds. Dandy Boy returned an SP of 33/1 in 2012, Big Timer won at 20/1 in 2008 and Dark Missile was victorious at 22/1 in 2007).

It might also pay to look at those at the head of the handicap. The last 5 winners were all rated 100+ and since the turn of the millennium we have had just two winners rated below 95. 4yo and 5yo runners dominate with all bar 2 of the last 18 winners coming from those two age groups.

Two horses have won this on their seasonal reappearance from just 20 that have tried. Horses having had a busy campaign have the worst record and those with more than 4 runs in the season are 0-68 and that might just help strike a line through a few in the field.

Finally, look for a horse that has already won over 6f as these types have been successful in 16 of the last 20 renewals. Interestingly, 12 of the 20 winners since 1997 had also won over further at either 7f or 1 mile.

They do not come much tougher than this race but the trends did pinpoint 2014 winner Baccarat and let’s hope for more of the same this year.

• Top 6 finish LTO (preferably 1st or 2nd LTO)
• Top 8 in the betting
• Aged 4yo or 5yo
• Rated 95+
• No more than 4 runs in the current season
• Won over 6f (preferably over further too)
• Carrying 8st 11lbs or more

Click here to read on and find Nick’s Wokingham Stakes picks.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 24th June’17
One from the Insiders Report and the trends point to Projection. Danzeno has run 16 times over 6f and only finished out of the places on four occasions. His form on his second start back from a break reads 12312 and he looks well treated if coming back to his best. Also interesting is Donjuan Triumphant who has a victory over Signs Of A Blessing on his CV when trained by Richard Fahey. He is another that could go well if back to form. Intisaab has twice run well here and appears to still be in form. He has also won over further which is a feature of quite a few previous winners.
Projection @15/2
Donjuan Triumphant @40/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, BFsb)
Danzeno @22/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Intisaab @28/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Royal Ascot Micro System & Big Race tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 17th June’17)
Royal Ascot is looming large on the horizon and gets underway next Tuesday and therefore we would suggest that if you haven’t already sorted out your own winning methods it could pay to invest a little time in watching this interesting video.

The method described shows how Big Race guru, Dr Nick Hardman, tackles the type of races that will be taking place over the 5 days of the prestigious Royal Ascot festival.

Members of the Betting Insiders Club will have full access to all of Nick’s selections and will no doubt be hoping that things pan out as well as they did in 2016 when they ended up by just shy of a 100pt profit to advised stakes/prices.

The winners flowed each day and included Ardad (adv 20/1 e/w), Prince Of Lir (adv 11/1 e/w), Primitivo (adv 8/1), Across The Stars (adv 12/1 e/w), Sir Isaac Newton (adv 16/1 e/w) and Dartmouth (adv 10/1).

Nick’s Big Race selections form part of the comprehensive package available to members of the Betting Insiders Club so if your current punting methods are not delivering the level of profit that you would hope for then now could be the perfect time to make a positive step. You can find out more here.

To whet the appetite for the coming week tomorrow’s racing action includes some decent cards from Musselburgh, York and Sandown and a little later on we will be sharing a few snippets that have caught the eye of Big Race Guru Nick Hardman from Saturday’s cards. But just before we move on to those we have a cracking little micro method that was recently published in the Betting Insiders members report (Issue 146).

Note: Within this angle those that ran over 1m4f or further LTO are 8/14, 10 places… +53 BFSP. It should also be noted that all of Sir Michael’s runners in the period sent off bigger than 12/1 SP are 0/13, 0 places. Some prominence in the market appears to be significant.

The above was just a random sample taken from a comprehensive review of the trainer trends for the Royal festival and you can get your hands on the complete piece and a whole lot more here.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 17th June’17
Musselburgh 2.05pm
Consolation race and plenty lining up that have run in this before.
Last year’s winner Meadway makes each way appeal off 1lb lower. A low draw is often favoured in the sprints at Mussleburgh the first four home in this last year came from stalls 4, 15, 2 and 1. Olivia Fallow was runner up in this last year and was coming to the boil before a par effort in the Dash. She also can go well at a course where she has been runner up in three of four visits.
Olivia Fallow @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Meadway @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

York 2.20pm
Three against the field in a competitive event. Ghurka Friend will most likely try and make all and from stall 1 should make a bold bid. Top weight Salateen could try and do the same but is draw in 15 so he would have to burn up some early energy to take this up. That said he is in fine form. Gallipoli can also go well with Hanagan back in the plate.
Ghurka Friend @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Salateen @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Gallipoli @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Brand new Insiders Report+Free tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 10th June’17)
The free tips given out last time around were not able to add to the 2017 tally with Nick’s Epsom Dash picks running solid races to finish within a couple of lengths of the winner in 7th & 8th place…..onwards and upwards with some decent racing to look forward to over the coming weekend.

If you would like to find out more about Nick Hardman’s Big Race method then take a look at this interesting video which shows how he goes about things.

A little later on we will have a few of Nick’s gems from Saturdays cards but just before we move on to that we have a quick update on the Betting Insiders Club including the hot off the press latest Members Report.

Betting Insiders news
May was a challenging one for the Club Portfolio Big Race selections but overall the latest month ended with a positive result. There were 31 winners or placers (where advised EW) from the 137 picks giving a 22.63% Strike Rate and +43.40 points profit to advised stakes (+15.90% ROI).

The +43.40pts helped build further on the excellent gains made during April (+127) and the 2017 total is moving in the right direction with +175pts in total after a sticky first quarter. Nick’s track record with his Big Race selections has now passed the 30 months mark and quite remarkably 25 of them proved to be profitable which is no mean feat given the nature of the races he takes on!

The brand new Members Report (Issue 146) is winging its way to the members right now and with the highlight of June being the 5 days of top class action from Royal Ascot we have many bases covered on this prestigious festival. First up Nick has all the key trends and traits in his regular Big Race feature whilst Alan Dudman (betting.betfair.com) highlights a number of his fancies from each day of the meeting and Josh (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk) provides the heads up on the Trainer Trends to keep a close eye on. Alongside these in the horse racing section we have a welcome guest appearance by Raceform published author Jon Gibby who details his approach to speed ratings and Tony continues his Through the Card series.

The other popular punting sports are also well catered for with Gary’s review of the Wimbledon Ladies tennis Grand Slam and there are a trio of articles from our knowledgeable football pundits which includes Liam’s take on the summer competitions.

To wrap things up this time around we have more risk free techniques from our Arbitrage guru and the latest news and results from our test team Rod and Keith who have been checking out whether the bold profit claims made from service vendors stacks up in real time live trials.

We firmly believe that this report provides an interesting read and will arm the readers with plenty of useful pointers on their continued journey of profitable punting. You can find out more including how to get your hands on a copy here.

To find out what has caught the eye of Big Race Guru Nick Hardman from Saturday’s cards click here to read on.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 10th June’17
Newmarket 3.40pm
Gabrial’s King fluffed the start last time out and lost all chance yet still finished a staying on 3rd behind likely favourite Jaameh. He would have been a lot closer if he had broken away on terms and he still looks in form. Blue Rambler is a thorough stayer and is very lightly raced. All his juvenile form in France was with some cut in the ground but has won over hurdles on good ground and was a good 6th in the Cesarewitch last year and was leading a couple of furlongs out before tiring so this trip could be ideal.
Gabrial’s King @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Blue Rambler @22/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

And the winner of the Epsom Dash is?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 3rd June’17)
The mini losing run was thankfully brought to an end last weekend with Nick Hardman’s free Big Race tips doing the business up at York in the Class 2 Unibet Sprint Stakes. Here is a quick reminder of Nick’s assessment prior to the race:-

York 3.50pm
Copper Knight did the business for us at Chester and showed blistering speed that day. I am hoping he does not turn out to be just a Chester specialist and is worth backing in this. Soie D’Leau has good form in these types of races and is not out of this while Caspian Prince would be a danger to all if back to anywhere near his best.

Copper Knight
@12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Soie D’Leau @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Caspian Prince @22/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places

The Tim Easterby trained 3yo, Copper Knight, was heavily punted into 5/1 favourite and after being smartly away on the far side of the track he never saw another rival and made all to win comfortably. The other two tips also ran decent races and finished 5th and 9th respectively.

For the coming weekend all eyes will be focussed on the Investec Derby on the Epsom downs but the race preceding the Classic on Saturday is typical of the kind of conundrum that Nick enjoys tackling and in his recent Big Race trends article for the Betting Insiders Club Members Report he had this to say:-

Epsom Dash (Heritage Handicap; 5f, 15.45pm)
Possibly the most frantic race in the flat calendar, the Epsom Dash is a real speedsters race, being run pretty much downhill all the way from the gates to the winning line. This is run at breakneck speed (it is a downhill sprint track after all) and is just the type of race to throw up some meaty priced winners in the process.

It is also a handicap and attracts a big field which means if you find the winner you should be rewarded nicely. There is a maximum field of 20 runners so there may be 4 or 5 places on offer come race day.

Since 1997, 13 of the 20 winners came from a double figure stall. With 3 others exiting from stalls 8 or 9 it may pay to side with stall 8 or higher for the main selections.

It is possible to win from a lower stall and that is factored into the prices, which should be value at least. Given that I back multiple horses in a race of this nature, we can easily cover both high and low drawn horses if they have an overall positive profile.

Looking at the prices of previous winners, the aforementioned Desert Law and Stone Of Folca went in at big odds, as did Bertoliver (33/1 in 2010). Eleven of the last 15 have been priced 9/1 or higher which is a reflection of the overall competitive nature of the race. There is no harm in taking a flyer on a big priced runner if you fancy it. Luck in running will also play a big part.

With Dandy Nicholls now retired Dean Ivory and Paul Midgeley are two other trainers who specialize in sprint races and they have been responsible for the last two winners. Stuart Williams has won this race twice with Bertoliver (2010) and Hogmaneigh (2007). Anything this trio runs this year, especially the stable first string, is a worth a second look.

Last time out winners are 0-36 which suggests horses carrying penalties or those who have had a hike in the weights tend to struggle. However, a good recent run is a positive in so much that 14 of the last 20 finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th on their previous start.

There have been 4 winning favourites since 1997 and in total 10 of the last 20 came from the front three in the betting. However, with winners at 33/1 and 50/1 in recent times there is no harm in taking one from the top of the market and one or two outsiders for good measure.

All bar one of the last 20 had won over the distance and 14 of the last 20 had actually won over further as well. Those horses with three runs under their belt in the current season are 7-68 (10% strike rate) and those with 4 runs are 5-46 (11%).

Those strike rates are much higher than the strike rates for horses with 2 runs (3%) and 1 run (1%) and I think that is a good statistic. The best strike rate actually comes from those racing in this on their seasonal debut 3-25 (12%).

Between 1997 and 2001, all of the winners carried 9st 1lb or more. Since then, 10 of the last 15 winners have carried 9st 0lb or less. Of those ten winners, 9 carried between 8st 5lbs and 9st 0lbs.

All that leaves us with a mixed bag on the trends front, but the strongest statistics are listed below:

• Finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th LTO
• Aged 4yo to 6yo
• Top 3 in the betting
• Won over 5f and further
• 3 to 4 runs in the current season
• Carrying 9st 0lbs or less

Nick will be using the above data as an aid to narrow down the Epsom Dash field and to find out which ones will be carrying his hard earned click here to read on.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 3rd June’17
Epsom 3.45pm
One from the Insiders Report and the Desert Law makes plenty of appeal near the top of the market. El Astronaute is very quick and is also a previous course winner and this race should suit.
El Astronaute @10/1 Gen
Desert Law @9/1 Gen

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

FA Cup Value Punt?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 27th May’17)
The minor dip in form for the free big race selections continued with last week’s picks only managing a 2nd and close up 5th place in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. The free ones are a sample of our big race guru, Nick Hardman’s, weekend coverage and sod’s law dictates that we may go for the wrong race from time to time! Overall Nick’s followers are having a profitable time of it from the current campaign which has now reached just shy of +180 points profit combined with a respectable +15% ROI.

If you enjoy the satisfaction of nailing a big priced winner of the weekend’s feature races you may be interested to view this video in which Nick’s method is detailed.

On Saturday in addition to some decent horse racing action there is the small matter of the FA Cup final from Wembley and the bookies have Chelsea priced up around 2/5 to lift the trophy against Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal. Logic points out, barring a boring 0-0 and penalties, that to achieve that they will score at least once and the clear odds on favourite in the “anytime goalscorer” market is the blues Diego Costa (Generally 4/5 – 5/6).

However in the recently published Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 145) our longstanding football pundit (and Chelsea fan) Mark Foley offers some insights into an alternative to putting your hard earned on Costa. In fact in his article he provided numerous angles to potentially profit from the goal scorer market and here is an extract that is relevant to Saturday’s big clash:-

Flat-track bullies and how to profit from them?

Love him or hate him it is undeniable that Diego Costa has scored a lot of goals in just under three seasons. Everton, Lukaku’s present team, will be glad to see the back of Costa; he has 4 goals in 4 games against The Toffees in the league (1 opening goal, 1 last goal). He must have something against Scousers; both of his goals against Liverpool (in 4 league games) have been the last goal of the game.

A similar story against Arsenal (2 in 5, where both of his goals were the final goal).
The Spaniard/Brazilian has only played 3 league games against Man U and his injury time equalizer at The Bridge last season remains his only goal against The Red Devils. He has had a tougher time against Spurs and City, (1 in 4 and 1 in 5 respectively).

So 7 league goals in 21 games against the other teams in the big 6 and 4 in 4 against Everton. Lower than his overall average, but then again that is to be expected against tougher opposition.

Alternative:
Eden Hazard offers better value than Costa in the scoring markets and has come into his own especially this season.

He has scored twice against Man City as well as finding the net against United, he has also scored a brace against Everton and possibly the goal of the season against Arsenal. More importantly, he has developed a penchant for scoring the opening goal in the big games.

His career record against the top sides is impressive – 4 in 10 against Spurs (and one for good measure in the recent FA cup semi); 3 in 9 against Man City, (all of them either the 1st or last goal); 3 in 9 against Liverpool and 3 in 10 against Arsenal. Add another two against Everton and United and he is one of the few players to have scored the opening goal at least once against all the top sides. A record of 15 goals in 47 games against the other top 6 sides is an outstanding return for a midfielder.

So instead of backing Costa at odds on to score against the Gunners Eden Hazard at 2/1 with Boyles (6/4 Paddy Power) could be the value call given the above info.

Click here to read on and grab a sample of Nick Hardman’s Big Race selections from the racing action on Saturday.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 27th May’17
York 3.50pm
Copper Knight did the business for us at Chester and showed blistering speed that day. I am hoping he does not turn out to be just a Chester specialist and is worth backing in this. Soie D’Leau has good form in these types of races and is not out of this while Caspian Prince would be a danger to all if back to anywhere near his best.

Copper Knight @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Soie D’Leau @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Caspian Prince @22/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve