Can Nick follow up last weekends haul (+80pts)

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th Feb’17)
Last weekend’s free tips came courtesy of our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, and all three ran solid races in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Clyne (3rd 6/1) deserves plenty of credit having chased the strong early gallop whilst Song Light (adv EW) grabbed place spoils after moving well under a ground-saving ride and only found a trio of well-handicapped performers too good. Boite was prominent for a long way and wasn’t beaten far in 8th place.

As we often say you can’t win them all but Nick’s followers still enjoyed a bumper weekend with seven winners/placers from the 22 that ran and over 80pts profit to advised stakes and quoted odds. Of course we recognise that different folk will have obtained different totals depending on which books they have to work with etc. With that in mind we noted the readily available prices (at least 3 different mainstream bookies) at 8am on both Sat/Sun and even where the original top price may have been trimmed (although Perfect Candidate drifted to 12/1) from the night before when Nick posted up the selections you could still have achieved over 65pts profit.

Race Profile VideoSo plenty to go around whichever way you cut it and if that has piqued your interest you may like to watch this video which describes Nick’s methods in detail.

The coming weekend sees some decent jumps racing from Ascot and Haydock and it is at the latter that we turn our attention to with Nick’s Big Race Trends for the Betfred Grand National Trial:-

Grand National Trial (Grade 3 handicap chase; 3m 5f); Haydock 3.15pm Sat

The first thing to note is that 9 of the last 11 renewals have been run on going officially described as heavy and have favoured those carrying lighter weights. This time around the forecast going is good-soft so it may not have as much bearing as previous recent runnings.

There have been 3 winning favourites since 1997 and a further 3 who were second favourite. Two of those winning fav’s came in 2013 (Well Refreshed) and in 2012 (Giles Cross). Despite that, this does appeal as a race for the each-way player with 12 of the last 19 coming from those horses who were between 5th and 8th in the betting. This is reflected by the SPs of the winners with 8 of the last 14 victorious horses being sent off at odds of 10/1 to 18/1. In recent times, Rambling Minster was the biggest priced winner at 18/1 in 2009, followed by Rigadin de Beauchene @16/1 in 2014 and Ossmoses @14/1 in 2006. Horses sent off at 14/1 to 20/1 are 3-52 and those sent off at the really big prices (22/1 or higher) are 0-55.

Since the turn of the millennium the younger horses have been largely put in their place by their older counterparts with just two 7yo and three 8yo winners. Five of the last 6 have all been aged 9yo or older and the age bracket 9yo – 11yo has provided us with 11 of the last 16 winners. Another interesting statistic is that a break of at least 1 month (31 days) has benefited 15 of the last 19 winners. The number of runs in the current season appears to have little bearing on the chances of winning this race. Three horses have taken this on their seasonal bow (from the 10 that tried to do so) and horses have won this on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and even their 6th run of the season.

When it comes to training a staying chaser then Venetia Williams is up there with the best. She trained the 1-2 in this race in 2014 to add to her impressive record that has seen her train the runner-up in 2013 and 2008 and the third placed horse in 2007. Not surprisingly, Paul Nicholls has a decent record in the race having trained the winner Shotgun Willy in 2003 and has since followed that with a 4th in 2005, 2nd in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and 2nd again in 2012. One trainer we have to throw into the mix is Kerry Lee who took this race last year along with the 2015 Welsh National and the 2016 Classic Chase at Warwick.

All bar four of the winners since 1997 had previously raced over 3m 5f or further and 16 of the last 19 had won a race over at least 3 miles. Fourteen of the last 19 had finished in the top two last time out so it may pay to side with a horse with excellent recent form. Those that completed their last start but finished outside the top three are 1-84. There are no firm trends with regards to official ratings (OR) with horses taking this race with an OR as low as 121 and as high as 151. However the last 8 winners were all rated 129+. All that gives us a nice profile of the typical winner:

• Carrying 11-0 or less (10-0 to 10-05 if the going is heavy)
• Rated 129+
• Top two finish LTO
• Odds between 10/1 to 18/1
• Aged 9yo to 11yo
• Not raced in last 31 days
• Won a race over 3m or further
• Raced over 3m 5f or further
• Trained by Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell or Kerry Lee

Nick will be using the above trends to help with his deliberations and to find out his final selection(s) for the big race click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 18th Feb
Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Clouds was in the process of running a stormer from 6lb out of the handicap in the Peter Marsh Chase behind Bristol De Mai and Otago Trail and compensation could await. Kruzhlinin has improved remarkably since switching to Phillip Hobbs and can also go well. He won a stamina sapping hurdles race here when only a handful finished and that bodes well for this trip.
Vintage Clouds @8/1 Gen
Kruzhlinin @15/2 Gen

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Hot off the press – Insiders Report

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 11th Feb’17)
Last time around we highlighted a potential opportunity to profit from research carried out for the Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 141) in which the author Liam noted how many matches involving Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Werder Bremen and Valencia ended with both teams getting on the score sheet. Well we got pretty close to a clean sweep last weekend with 3 of the 4 following suit and the one that did not Valencia (playing against Eibar) set themselves a very difficult task after having a player sent off just before the half-time whistle.

It is potential nuggets like these that can be found in abundance in the Insiders Reports month in month out, and the very latest edition (Issue 142) is literally hot off the press.

With the 2017 Cheltenham Festival moving ever closer this month’s edition includes Alan Dudman’s (Betting.betfair.com) in depth review of the Novice events whilst “Chutney Dave” Massey offers up his three to follow at the prestigious meeting and Josh Wright chips in with a plethora of micro angles to help dissect the four days of scintillating action at Prestbury Park. The horse racing section also includes Nick Hardman’s Big Race Trends, the next instalment of the informative “Through the Card” series and a guest author, Chris Worrall (www.geegeez.co.uk), taking over the reins for the Research Corner offering.

The other popular punting sports are also well catered for with a trading review of the Women’s Australian Open Tennis along with the latest La Liga news from our Man in Spain and plenty of football punting pointers covering the Premier League and European Competitions. The line-up is completed with the latest news from the diligent testing team and further risk free punting techniques from our resident Arbitrage Guru.

We firmly believe that this latest report provides an interesting read and offers up plenty of fresh angles to potentially exploit on the continuing journey of profitable punting; you can grab a copy and also find out more about the Insiders Club here.

There are some cracking races scheduled for Saturday’s meeting at Newbury as well as the supporting cast at Warwick and Uttoxeter and you can see what has caught the eye of our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, by reading on here:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 11th Feb
Newbury 3.35pm
One from the Insiders Report and a few who qualify on the trends including no fewer than five of the top seven in the betting. Of those at an each-way price I think Song Light has place prospects on the back of his third in the Greatwood Hurdle. William H Bonney is also of interest but Alan King has said he would have preferred another week between his last race and this. Clyne is 5lb well in on ratings and if his second to the New One is not false form then he should be in the mix. I’ll take those two from the trends horses and throw in Boite at a huge price who should be better back down at 2 miles and could well outrun his odds.
Clyne @7/1 Win (Gen)
Song Light @12/1 e/w (Gen, 1/4 odds, 4 places)
Boite @33/1 e/w (Gen, 1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Fancy an Acca?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 4th Feb’17)
Last weekend’s featured race proved to be elusive on the winner front after More Bucks fell and Singlefarmpayment who had been creeping closer was unfortunately brought down 5 from home. The eventual winner, Royal Vacation, looks to be heading to the Cheltenham Festival with connections mentioning the RSA Chase after his impressive win at the track.

You can’t win them all, in fact our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, drew a blank at the Cheltenham meeting but his approach of tackling the better quality races, wherever they are run, ultimately proved to be profitable once again thanks to weekend winners such as Mia’s Storm (adv EW 16/1), Upsilon Bleu (adv 7/1) and Tonto’s Spirit (adv EW 16/1).

How to Race Profile for ProfitYou can find out more about Nick’s methods in this interesting video.

For the coming weekend the Insiders Club Big Race Coverage features the Irish Grand National Trial over at Punchestown on Sunday so by way of a change for a flutter on Saturday we have an interesting football piece which was recently published in the Members Report, over to Liam:-

Football Punting – Goals Down Under
If, like me, you will literally give any football match shown on television a quick look (and you have access to BT Sport), then you are bound to have come across the A League in Australia. The standard leaves a lot to be desired, but those Aussies sure serve up plenty of entertainment.

Melbourne City and Perth Glory are currently fourth and fifth in the table – two teams that do not look like mounting a championship challenge, nor do they appear to be under threat of relegation. But what they do provide is goals, and lots of them. They are a dream for the both teams to score market.

At the time of writing the two sides have contested 12 league matches, and they and their opposition have both found the net in 10 of them. So, it was no surprise when they faced off on December 27th, the game ended in a 3-3 draw – certainly more entertaining than I expect Southampton and Leicester to be later this month.

Two other teams that you probably know much more about that are worth backing in this particular market are Werder Bremen and Valencia. Both teams have scored in 14 of 16 matches involving the German side, while for the Spaniards it’s 13 from 15 – both comfortably over 85%.

Long story short, a weekly both teams to score accumulator including matches involving Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Werder Bremen and Valencia is likely to pay out more often that it does not.

This weekend the above highlighted teams are playing as follows:

Sat 4th
(0850) Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1100) Perth Glory v Newcastle (Btts – Gen 1/2)
(1945) Valencia v Eibar (Btts – Gen 4/6)

Sun 5th
(1430) Augsburg v Werder Bremen (Btts – Gen 4/5)

Now using the generally available odds the 4 leg acca combining each match “both teams to score – Yes” works out at a shade over 11/2 (Decimal 6.76) or you could play it as 4 trebles and 1 acca at split stakes. For the latter if 3 of the 4 come in you won’t be far off covering your outlay. Decision time….be bold or play it safer? Your call!!

Of course it wouldn’t be a regular weekend without a few Saturday snippets from the Big Race Guru himself so click here to read on and grab some of Nicks free selections:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 4th Feb
Sandown 3.00pm
This might take some getting if the ground remains heavy so I am going with a couple at big prices, who act on the ground, get the trip and have proven stamina. First up is Desert Sensation for Dr Richard Newland. He has 5 lengths to find with Rolling Dylan but is 5lbs better off so there should not be much between them. Ballyculla has been chasing for the last few seasons but is well handicapped on his old hurdles form and he gets a feather weight with a 7lb claimer on board.
Ballyculla @25/1 (EW 1/5 odds, 4 places, Sky/PP)
Desert Sensation @9/1 Gen

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Big Race Tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 28th Jan’17)
Last weekend our resident horse racing pundit cast his slide rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock and his final selections (3) filled second and third places to secure small gains overall. The winner Bristol De Mai was mighty impressive and there was talk of a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup on the back of this performance. Nick’s picks Otago Trail and Bishops Road ran with credit but time may tell that they had an impossible task against a rapidly improving 6yo who won easily by 22 length’s!

Nick’s Big Race approach can’t nail all the winners but his special techniques combined with clever staking has secured consistent profits over the last two years. You can find out more about his methods in this interesting video.

Make Money Betting Video

Of late the weather has been taking its toll with a number of meetings being lost to the elements and with cracking cards scheduled at Doncaster and Cheltenham on Saturday the current forecast is positive that they will get the go ahead.

These types of meetings are food and drink for Nick’s Big Race approach and no doubt he will have plenty of ammo to get stuck into the bookies with this weekend. His selections are the flagship of the Betting Insiders Club Portfolio which along with a vibrant community/forum and monthly member’s reports provides a comprehensive package for folk that want to take their punting to a whole new level. You find out more here.

The second race on Saturday’s Cheltenham card provided Nick’s followers with last year’s winner King’s Odyssey and therefore it seems appropriate to share with you the key trends that he will use to tackle the race this time around:-

Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase (12.35pm Cheltenham)
Venetia Williams does well in this race, having sent out the winner three times between 2004 and 2009. Aside from Martin Pipe, no other trainer has won this more than once since 1997.

We had a couple of big priced winners in Vino Griego at 25/1 in 2013 and Indian Castle at 14/1 the following year, but these two aside, it normally goes to a quietly fancied one with all of the winners since 2000 have gone in at 8/1 or shorter, in fact all bar three since 1997 were to be found in the top 5 in the betting.

Six and seven year old’s have dominated this in recent years as you would expect for a novice event with seven of the last eight having come from this age bracket. There have been five 8yo winners but only one since 2005 so I will exclude these and concentrate on the 6-7yo’s.

We have seen a shift in class in recent times and the last seven winners all carried at least 10-11 and two top weights have obliged in that time. A race in the previous 30 days also looks positive. Those that had run in the previous 30 days have supplied 11 of the 19 winners since 1997, but at a much higher strike rate than the eight that won after a break of more than 30 days. Horses with a previous win at the distance are 5-35 and should be noted whilst a win over at least 2m 3 ½f looks essential and accounts for all bar 4 of the winners since 1997.

Not surprisingly, for a novice event, only one previous winner of this handicap chase had previously won at Cheltenham and only five of the previous winners had placed at the track before. A top 3 finish last time out looks essential (16 of the last 19 winners) and 14 winners since 1997 arrived in the back of a top 2 finish last time out.

Putting all that together gives us the following profile:

• Top 5 in the betting market
• Aged 6yo or 7yo
• Rated 128+
• Carrying 10st 11lbs or more
• Raced in the previous 30 days
• A win over 2m 3 ½f or further
• Priced 8/1 or shorter
• Top 2 finish last time out
• Trained by Venetia Williams

You can find out which runners have caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 28th Jan

Cheltenham 12.35pm
Paul Nicholl’s holds a strong hand and Ibis Du Rheu’s cause will be aided by Harry Cobden’s claim. However, stablemate More Buck’s is more interesting at around two and a half times the price. He just about stays 3 miles but this drop back in trip looks a smart move. Singlefarmpayment is 2 for 2 here over fences and is another who drops in trip. He travels well so that should not be a problem and if still handy approaching the last then his stamina will help as they motor up the hill.
Singlefarmpayment @5/1 Win Betfred/Tote
More Bucks @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Sky/Hills)

Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Top trends & free tips – Peter Marsh Chase

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 21st Jan’17)
Last time around our regular pundit, Nick Hardman, tackled the feature race at Warwick, the Betfred Classic Chase, and went mighty close to landing a big’un!

As he often does when faced with a very competitive 20+ runner handicap he turns to his trusty stats and trends to help narrow down the field. In this instance he went for a trio of big priced runners that were a good fit and with the lowest priced one being 18/1 he suggested going Each-Way but also taking advantage of bonus place terms that some of the bookies offer on these types of events. This time around Skybet were offering 6 places at 1/5 odds and it would have been rude not to take advantage of this.

Just before we move on to review the outcome of the race you can find out more about Nick’s Big Race Winning Techniques in this interesting video.

As it turned out the biggest priced of Nick’s selections, Goodtoknow (adv EW 33/1), nearly pulled it off but in the end could not cope with the late surge of race winner One For Arthur and had to settle for second and the handy place spoils. One of the other picks, Rigadin De Beauchene (adv EW 18/1), managed to finish in a clear 6th place and also added to the returns.

This weekend Haydock stages, weather permitting, a cracking card which includes the renewal of the Peter Marsh Chase (3.15pm) and who better to turn to than the Betting Insiders Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, for the key trends to try and unravel the chances of the 14 runners that are currently entered.

Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2; 3m); Haydock, January 21st
This 3 miles limited handicap (a race where a restricted weight range is specified) has been contested on heavy ground on 8 of the last 9 renewals and no surprise to see that the top weight (or joint top weight) has won just one of the last 12 renewals. That win came on soft ground. If the going is heavy we can give the top weight a swerve.

In fact, since 2004, horses at least 11lbs below the top weight have won 7 of the 10 renewals. Only Cloudy Lane and Jodami have carried more than 11st 2lbs to victory since 1997. Five of the last eight winners were ridden by a claimer so taking weight off the back of the horse really seems to help.

With the current forecast going as soft we should take note of entries by Venetia Williams who is adept at training the mud larks and she has twice trained the winner of this race. Likewise, Sue Smith has won the race three times, including last year’s winner Cloudy Too. Look out for runners entered by these two and I would add Kerry Lee into the mix as well. All three are excellent trainers of staying chasers, especially when the mud is flying around.

There has been only one winning favourite in the last 16 renewals and that is in spite of this race seeing small fields of 5 to 7 runners in the past. In fact, horses sent off at 4/1 or shorter have provided just 2 winners from 22 runners.

Do not be afraid to back a veteran chaser if you fancy one as this race has been won by two 12yo, one 11yo and four who were aged 10yo. Despite this, 8yo runners have the best record and are 6-36 at a strike rate of 17%. Horses aged 7yo or younger are few and far between and have a record of 0-19.

Horses with experience of marathon distances (3m 6f or further) have a good record and are 7-45 (strike rate 16%) and horses to have run in the Grand National are 3-21 (strike rate 14%). Eleven of the winners since 1997 had winning form over at least 3 miles and a break of 16 – 60 days looks ideal and accounts for 13 of the last 16 winners.

That gives us a decent profile to identify some of the likelier types who will line up for the Peter Marsh Chase.
• Carrying 11st 2lbs or less
• At least 11lbs below top weight (heavy going)
• Ridden by a claimer
• 9/2 or higher in the betting
• Trained by Venetia Williams, Sue Smith or Kerry Lee
• Aged 8yo or older
• Winning form over 3m or further
• Raced over 3m 6f or further
• Last race 16 – 60 days ago

In addition to Haydock Saturdays racing also includes some decent cards at Ascot, Lingfield and Taunton although the weather may still play a part of what goes ahead. You can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 21st Jan
Haydock 3.15pm
Alary would have to be pretty special to take this off 11-10 and he concedes at least 7lb to the whole field. This is one we covered in the Insiders Report and from a trends perspective Otago Trail ticks plenty of boxes along with Bishops Road who needs to jump better but will be suited if this turns into a slog. Sausalito Sunrise can also be given a chance on these terms and ran a solid race last time at Cheltenham,
Sausalito Sunrise @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Bishops Road @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)
Otago Trail @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places)

Here’s to a highly profitable 2017!

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve