A Hat trick of Big Priced Winners?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 15th April’17)
Hot on the heels of landing the Lincoln Handicap winner Bravery at 20/1 the Insiders Club Big Race Guru nailed a 1-2 in the Grand National! Below is a snapshot of why Nick went for the winning selections at Aintree based on the key trends which we detailed in last week’s newsletter…

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 8th April’17
Aintree 5.15pm
The Big One. The trends leave us looking at just five horses the best of whom appear to be Cause Of Causes and Ucello Conti. The other two I like are One For Arthur and Highland Lodge. If the latter stays I think he has a great chance.

Ucello Conti @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Cause Of Causes @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places) – 2nd 16/1
One For Arthur @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places) – Won 14/1
Highland Lodge @28/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)

You can find out more about the method that Nick uses to find these Big Race selections on this interesting video.

Saturday’s racing features the Challenger Series Finals Day which take place at Haydock Park. The Challenger Series has been running across 35 racecourses throughout the core part of the 2016/17 Jump season and was designed for horses rated between 0-135 and offers excellent prize money for the middle tier of Jump racing.

Each Series Final is a Class 2 Handicap with a total prize fund of £50,000 and £30,950 for the winner. The total Series prize fund for the Finals is therefore £300,000.

A little later you can find out what has caught the attention of Nick from the aforementioned meeting but just before that we have a football snippet from one of our regular contributors to the Insiders Club Members Report. In the original article published recently Liam made a strong case for the first leg of the Europa League tie between Anderlecht v Man Utd to end in a draw at 12/5 and the readers were rewarded with a 1-1 result from Thursday’s match.

Over to Liam Apicella:-
They say you should never bet on the team that you support. If anything, do the opposite and bet against them, then at least if the match result lets you down, there is at least the solace of some money in your back pocket. Here, though, I have decided to go against that old adage. It has probably become clear by now that Manchester United is my team, and I have spent some time looking at some potential money-making angles. So, here goes.

Corners
Man United corners ever since the day I saw Phil Jones take them at Queens Park Rangers. For all those England fans, trust me that is much worse than seeing Harry Kane line one up in the Euros!

Anyway, thankfully Mr Jones is no longer on corner duty, which is just as well because United win a bucket load. On average, games at Old Trafford have 11 corners, so backing over 10 in home matches is well worth considering. This is particularly true when United are up against the smaller clubs when they have plenty of possession.

The full-backs get forward and look to cross the ball, forcing the defenders to block the ball and often turn it behind for a corner. For example, against Bournemouth and Burnley this season, United won 15 and 19 respectively. It was 13 versus Stoke and 12 when Middlesbrough visited.

Now Chelsea aren’t exactly a “smaller club” but they visit Old Trafford on Sunday and the Over 10.5 corners can be backed at better than evens with a number of bookmakers such as Stan James, 32Red and 888Sport.

Click here to read on and find a few of Nick’s selections from Saturdays Challenger Series Finals Day at Haydock.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 15th April’17
Haydock 2.40pm
Tom George won this last year with No Duffer and has two live chances again this time around.
Behind The Wire @13/2
Moss On The Mill @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Haydock 5.30pm
The stayers race on the card and two who appeal are Kilbree Chief who will have no stamina worries and Courtown Oscar who is in fine form and who should also see out the trip well.
Courtown Oscar @6/1
Kilbree Chief @7/1

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Grand National Tips!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 8th April’17)
The new Flat turf season got off to a really positive start with our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, nailing the Lincoln Handicap winner Bravery at 20/1 whilst 2 of his other double digit Each-Way plays also landed the spoils. Here is a quick reminder of how Nick decided to tackle the first big handicap at Doncaster last Saturday:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 1st April’17
Doncaster 3.35pm
The Lincoln and I am going with Richard Fahey again and David O’Meara who consistently gets his runners placed in this. Bravery is ex Aiden O’Brien trained and decent. This yard often improves horses and if doing the same here then he has an obvious chance. Steel Train is interesting despite a row of duck eggs next to his name and Dolphin Vista is the pick of Hanagan for Fahey. That trainer runs a fair few and Gabrial is not out of this on his current mark.

Steel Train @22/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet) – 7th beaten SH for a place

Dolphin Vista @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)
5th 12/1

Gabrial @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)
4th 16/1

Bravery @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)Won 20/1

Of course Nick can’t win with every race his selections run in and it is fair to say that the first 3 months of 2017 have been challenging but his proven methods have always ridden out the odd losing run and hot on the heels of the Lincoln winner Nick also provided the Insiders Club members with the winner of the Foxhunters, Dineur (adv EW 25/1), on Day 1 of the Aintree Festival.

You can find out more about the method that Nick uses to find these Big Race selections on this interesting video.

Saturday’s feature race is of course the Aintree Grand National and Nick passed his slide rule over the key stats and traits for his article in the current Insiders Club Report (Issue 144) which is hot off the press. You can find out how to get your hands on a copy and a whole lot more here. http://bettinginsiders.com

The Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3; 4m 3½f)

If there was one race in the whole season where you want to pick the winner then it has to be the Grand National – 40 runners, 30 fences and a roller coaster from start to finish. This really is racing’s greatest spectacle. This is a race where I have no worries taking at least 4 against the field and big-odds backers have been richly rewarded with winners at 33/1, 25/1, 25/1, 66/1 and 33/1 in the last five renewals. Throw in Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009 and finding the winner of the race can be very rewarding for punters who are brave enough to look outside the top tier in the betting market.

So let’s look at the statistics. The strongest one is that all of the last 20 winners had last raced 16 – 60 days before lining up for the Big One. Horses aged 8yo or younger are 2-170 since 1997. Horses aged 9yo to 11yo totally dominate and account for 17 of the last 20 winners and all of the winners since 2004.

The Grand National is the longest race in the racing calendar and often run at a decent clip. 17 of the last 20 winners carried 11st 0lbs or less and I will be looking at those horses carrying something around 10st 6lbs to 11st 0lbs as this weight bracket has produced 9 of the last 14 winners. A good last time out performance is a decent pointer and 15 of the last 20 winners finished in the top five on their previous start.

All of the last 13 winners were rated 137+ although we have seen a shift towards higher rated winners in recent time. A minimum of three runs in the current season looks a prerequisite and accounts for all of the last 20 winners. Fifteen of the last twenty winners had raced over at least 3m 5f previously and that is a strong statistic.

Another interesting statistic is that 6 of the last 18 winners had their last run over hurdles. This type of prep race is not uncommon and there are usually around 4 to 6 such horses in the line-up each year. Since 1997 these runners are 6-71 for a level stakes profit of £17.00. Putting all these statistics together gives us the following profile:

• Has had a run in the last 16 to 60 days
• Aged 9yo to 11yo
• Carrying 10st 6lbs to 11st 0lbs
• Top 5 finish LTO
• At least 3 runs in the current season
• Rated 137+
• Raced over at least 3m 5f (preferably 4m+)
• Won a race over at least 3 miles
• Note any horses whose last run was over hurdles
• Previous experience of the Grand National fences (ran in the Grand National, Topham Chase, Becher Chase or Grand Sefton Handicap Chase previously)

Click here to read on and find out which horses Nick really fancies for the Aintree Grand National.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 8th April’17
Aintree 5.15pm
The Big One. The trends leave us looking at just five horses the best of whom appear to be Cause Of Causes and Ucello Conti. The other two I like are One For Arthur and Highland Lodge. If the latter stays I think he has a great chance.
Ucello Conti @18/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Cause Of Causes @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
One For Arthur @16/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)
Highland Lodge @28/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Lincoln Handicap tips!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 1st April’17)

In a relative blink of an eye the new Flat turf season will be under way with the traditional curtain raiser meeting at Doncaster on Saturday which features the Lincoln Handicap. A little later on you will be able to find out what our Big Race Guru Nick Hardman has to say about the event and which of the 22 runners will be carrying his stakes.

Just before that we want to touch on the diversity that the Betting Insiders Club offers to its members. Of course we have straight backing (including Each-Way) with the flagship Nick Hardman Big Race Coverage, but also we are increasingly providing opportunities to profit from the use of the betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq. One of the common complaints that we receive as feedback from members is how they are treated as winning punters by the majority of the mainstream bookmakers. It’s a regular theme and as such we encourage our team of industry respected contributors to include options that the exchanges provide such as the use of the Betfair SP, to Back/Lay and also trade In-Play.

A recent example is a trial we are carrying out on a select group of trainers that are adept at placing their jumps handicappers away from the big festivals such as Cheltenham and Aintree. The live trial got going at the start of February and to date has landed 18 winners from 72 runners (25% Strike Rate) and has made just shy of 30 points profit. The interesting thing is those gains were made using the Betfair SP so place and leave, no chasing the best odds guaranteed bookies etc.

You may recall last week we highlighted one of the teams we fancy to win or at least place in next weekend’s Grand National and the horse in question (The Young Master) does seem primed for a big run. However one of our regular authors Alan Dudman (betting.betfair) took a different approach in his article for the current Insiders Club Members Report in that he considered the entries for the Grand National that may offer an opportunity to profit even if they don’t ultimately win the big race. He is a snapshot of Alan’s thoughts…

Le Mercurey
This seven-year-old has a lot going for him as a lively outsider around the 50/1 mark. He ticks the well-handicapped box from a mark of 151, and he has a nice weight of 10-9. His form is decent for a lightly-raced runner too. The obvious piece of evidence is the excellent second in Newbury’s Grade 2 Denman Chase. Yes it was a tactical affair, but he travelled like the better horse – which is no mean feat against the current Gold Cup second- favourite Native River. He was traded at a low of 2.66 in that, but I really liked the way he got into a rhythm – perfect qualities for an Aintree horse.

His effort in Liverpool on the Mildmay course last December behind Many Clouds gave a hint that he is worth trying over the National’s marathon trip, and he also beat Bristol De Mai as a novice by seven lengths at Ayr – which gives a guide to better ground and a flat track as optimum conditions. His defeat to Native River might highlight him being slightly vulnerable to something with bags of stamina, but we don’t need to worry about that. Of the 11 defeats in his career, he has traded shorter than his BSP on each occasion – including a 1.42 at Ascot. And he could bypass Cheltenham and head straight to Aintree.

The strategy with him is to gain a green book and profit all-round with an example stake. Take odds of 51.0 at £10, and key in a lay with the ‘keep bets’ facility at odds of 14.0 for £35. This using an example staking plan (and adjust yours accordingly) gives you a profit of around £20 no matter the result if he gets matched at the lay price ordered.

Alan highlighted the trading chances of several other horses for the Grand National and you can find out which ones they were and a whole lot more here. http://bettinginsiders.com

As we mentioned earlier its Lincoln Handicap day at Doncaster on Saturday so click here to read on and find out what Nick fancies for the main event.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 1st April’17

Doncaster 3.35pm

The Lincoln and I am going with Richard Fahey again and David O’Meara who consistently gets his runners placed in this. Bravery is ex Aiden O’Brien trained and decent. This yard often improves horses and if doing the same here then he has an obvious chance. Steel Train is interesting despite a row of duck eggs next to his name and Dolphin Vista is the pick of Hanagan for Fahey. That trainer runs a fair few and Gabrial is not out of this on his current mark.

Steel Train @22/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)

Dolphin Vista @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)

Gabrial @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, Skybet)

Bravery @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)


Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

20/1 Grand National Winner?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 25th March’17)

It is fair to say that our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman has been having a tough time of it recently with many of his selections hitting the bar but not quite ending in the winner’s enclosure. There is a saying that “form is temporary but class is permanent” and longer term followers of Nick will be well aware that given the type of races he tackles there will be down periods but over the medium+ time frame he has a proven track record of delivering very healthy profits combined with a commendable ROI using a sensible betting bank.

It will therefore come as no surprise that last week’s free selections for the Betfred Midlands Grand National included the winner Chase The Spud (adv EW) which when given out to the Insiders Club members was available to back at 25/1 and there was plenty of 20/1 via this bulletin on the morning of the race.

The following is a quick reminder of why Nick included the horse in his pre-race summary:-

“The trends point to a horse aged 8yo or 9yo and carrying under 11st. That leaves just three in Spookydooky, Chase The Spud and Court Frontier. Spookydooky ran well in over a long trip at Exeter last time and is effectively only 2lb higher here with Killian Moore claiming 3lbs. Chase The Spud gets a massive pull in the weights from Eider Chase winner Mysteree and could turn the tables on their close Haydock running”

At the business end of the race Chase The Spud did indeed get revenge on Mysteree as he grabbed the lead on the run in to win after being backed into 11/1.

For the coming weekend there are a few decent contests due to take place at the likes of Newbury, Kelso and Lingfield and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s eye by clicking here to read on:-

Just before you do and with the Aintree Grand National only 2 weeks away you may be interested to read the thoughts of one of the regular contributors to the Insiders Members Reports, David “Chutney Dave” Massey….

“The Young Master’s prep for the National couldn’t have been more eye-catching if he’d tried. He just looked that one run short of peak fitness in the paddock and I expected him to finish midfield here, but he ran on really nicely to take sixth after getting outpaced coming down the hill. As he did last year, appears to be coming right for the spring and has to be on any National shortlist now.”

With the likes of Bet365, SkyBet and Paddy Power offering 20/1 on a non-runner no bet basis as well as paying out on the first 5 home The Young Master looks one to have on your side for the Aintree feature event.

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 25th March’17

Newbury 3.00pm

Theatre Territiory represents Nicky Henderson who has won this a few times in the last 10 years. She looks a decent each-way price on her novice runs. Wizards Sliabh has a form line with Tara View and multiple scorer Ms Pafois which makes her interesting at a price too. Lamanver Odyssey looks to have been laid out for this and is a full sister to a previous winner of the race.

Lamanver Odyssey @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Theatre Territory @14/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Wizards Sliabh @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Thinking out of the Box for profits!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th March’17)
Almost in a blink of an eye the Cheltenham Festival is over once again and as the dust settles owners, trainers and jockeys will reflect on how it panned out for them after all their planning and preparations. There were many memorable performances such as Nicky Henderson’s 1-2 in the Champion Hurdle a feat repeated in Wednesday’s RSA Chase, whilst the Willie Mullins team suffered several setbacks before their four-timer on Thursday. The Gold Cup on the final day of the Festival was won in good style by the Jessica Harrington trained Sizing John on only his 4th start since switching to the yard.

Of the horses we featured from Alan Dudman’s ante-post selections in last week’s newsletter Defi Du Seuil (adv 6/1) won the Triumph in great style by 5 lengths and Native River (adv EW 14/1) finished 3rd in the aforementioned Gold Cup to ensure a healthy +54% profit overall for his followers.

Amongst the comprehensive content enjoyed by members of the Betting Insiders Club are the insightful articles written by our team of industry respected authors who use their knowledge and experience to often uncover gems by “thinking outside of the box”.

In the current Insiders Report (Issue 143) stats Guru Josh Wright (www.racingtoprofit.co.uk) covers a number of angles one of which focusses on a select bunch of trainers that are very adept in improving some of their horses by the careful use of “headgear”. The data that Josh presents in his research piece details 16 trainers that collectively have produced the following results in recent years:-

The criteria used via the excellent horseracebase research tool to achieve the above results were as follows:-

2012 – to date
Handicap Races
Horse Wearing headgear today
Horse last ran in Headgear (same as today) – once only
Placed on last run – No
Relatively fancied today, 10/1 or lower

So to all intense purposes the fitting of headgear last time out did not perk up the performance resulting in an unplaced run. There is some published data to imply that the horse may have reacted negatively to the first application of the headgear, but on the second run they are more used to it and therefore may perform better on that occasion.

The above stats show a better than 30% win rate in such circumstances and the profit figures are certainly at a level to take a note of. One of the trainers Josh uncovered in his research has a suitable runner entered on Saturday….

Monbeg Gold (Kemp 3.15pm) Gen 9/1 (EW, 2 places, ¼ odds)

Trained by Jonjo O’Neill who has trained 13 winners from 46 runners of the type described above (28.26% Strike Rate) and last time out wore blinkers for the 1st time before finishing 5th of 13 in a decent contest at Newbury in which he ran well for a long time. Prior to that he wore cheek-pieces which are reapplied for Saturday’s race and the drop back in trip will hopefully help him run a solid race at the odds.

You can find out how to grab a copy of the latest Insiders Report which contains Josh’s research piece in full along with numerous other profitable angles here. http://bettinginsiders.com

In addition to Kempton Saturday’s racing action includes Midlands Grand National from Uttoxeter and to find our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, thoughts on the big race are below…

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 18th March’17
Uttoxeter 3.35pm
The trends point to a horse aged 8yo or 9yo and carrying under 11st. That leaves just three in Spookydooky, Chase The Spud and Court Frontier. Spookydooky ran well in over a long trip at Exeter last time and is effectively only 2lb higher here with Killian Moore claiming 3lbs. Chase The Spud gets a massive pull in the weights from Eider Chase winner Mysteree and could turn the tables on their close Haydock running, whereas Court Frontier is the potential improver. Goulanes won this in 2014 and it would be no surprise to see him involved with a clear round.
Spookydooky @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Court Frontier @8/1 Win (Gen)
Chase The Spud @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Goulanes @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places)

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve