Brand new Insiders Report out now!

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 10th Dec’16)
Last weekend we turned to our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, to provide the significant pointers and historical trends on the feature race at Aintree, the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase. Given that the previous week he had nailed the winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup you could possibly cut him some slack if he wasn’t able to help find us the winner of the Becher.

Thankfully that wasn’t needed as not only did he land the winner, Vieux Lion Rouge (adv 11/1 EW), but also the runner up, Highland Lodge (adv EW 20/1)!!!! The latter was very unfortunate as having gone about 3 lengths clear after the last he idled in the closing stages and was nailed in the shadow of the post.

Nick shares his Big Race selections with Insiders Club members and what a cracking year they have enjoyed with the latest month providing +78.20 points for November. As a result the 2016 tally moved on to a remarkable +789.67pts with a Win/Place strike rate of 23% combined with an excellent +32% ROI. In real terms the original 200 point bank was at the end of November sitting at just shy of 1000pts!!! If that tickles your fancy you may be interested to view this video in which Nick shares his techniques.

Profitable Betting Method Video Betting Insiders Club news
Issue 140 of the Betting Insiders Members Report is hot off the press and will be in the hands of our members by the time you are reading this newsletter. In addition to supplying a steady flow of cracking winners Nick starts the process each month by covering the Big Races due to be run in his regular articles and this time around these include the King George meeting at Kempton and the Welsh Grand National from Chepstow.

The horse racing section also includes insights on the winter All-Weather racing scene and a piece which features a bunch of potential profitable trainers to follow during the festive period and Anthony Gibson re-joins the fold with a little bio of how he got started and the premise for his soon to be published new book. Wrapping things up on the equine front is David Massey’s feedback from the latest meeting at the home of NH racing, Cheltenham. The horses noted should pay their way going forward if they perform like the cracking winners his Ten To Follow (October report) have provided with Native River (Hennessy) and Cabragh (Won 22-1).

The extensive football coverage includes a follow piece on the non-league action along with numerous top league pointers and the latest news from “Our man in Spain”.

To wrap things up this time around “Jenxy” shares some more of his clever risk free punting techniques in the longstanding Arbitrage feature and the diligent testing team provide their latest news from the world of commercially sold products and services.

We firmly believe that the readers of this final report of 2016 will find it a thought provoking and interesting read and one that will provide new angles and strategies to incorporate on their path to long term profitable punting.

You can find out more here.

Saturdays racing includes a cracking card at Cheltenham and you can find a sample of what has caught Nick’s attention by clicking here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 10th Dec

Cheltenham 1.50pm
Another Big Race covered by the Insiders Report. Kylemore Lough appeals most of those near the top of the market. Frodon will appreciate the return to better ground and is not one to write off yet. King’s Odyssey is unexposed and merits respect also, having won a C&D handicap last season.

Kylemore Lough @8/1 Gen
Frodon @10/1 e/w Gen
King’s Odyssey @12/1 e/w Gen

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Becher Chase Profile and Selections

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 3rd Dec’16)
Last time around we were able to share our Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman’s, key trends and stats for the Hennessy Gold Cup which took place at Newbury on the Saturday. Nick incorporates these into his approach when tackling the big races and festivals and just before we move on to how his final selections for the Hennessy fared you may be interested to view this video that shows how he goes about his business.

Profitable Betting Method Video Having applied the key trends to the 20 runner field to try and sort the wheat from the Chaff Nick reached the following conclusion:

The Hennessy Gold Cup (Sat 26th Nov – Newbury 15.10pm)
The main event and a race we looked at in the Betting Insiders Report for November. The trends qualifiers are Native River and Un Temps Pour Tout. The former makes more appeal off 11-01. Stablemate Theatre Guide has finished 2nd and 3rd on his previous two starts in this race and could give each-way backers a run for their money. At bigger prices Vicente seems to have been a bit ignored in the betting. He is 4 from 8 over fences and is a thorough stayer. He also fits the bill in terms of age, OR and winning form over 3m+. Could go well at a decent price.

Native River @6/1 Gen
Theatre Guide @18/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 4 places, BFsb) or 16/1 (1/5 odds, 5 places,PP)
Vicente @20/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet) or (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)

In the race itself Theatre Guide looked to be getting in to a challenging position by the 14th fence but couldn’t sustain it and weakened 2 out. Similar comments could be applied to Vicente although he fell 2 out, meanwhile the well backed Native River was always to the fore and despite idling after the last he stayed on well to take the winners plaudits!

For the coming weekend there is, weather permitting, a cracking card on Saturday at Aintree which features the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase and here are Nick’s key notes on the big race:-

Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (13.35 Aintree)

I absolutely love this race as it is run over the Grand National fences and almost always attracts a bumper field. The key trainer amongst the entries is Nigel Twiston-Davies who has won this three times since 1998 (twice with Hello Bud).

There have been just 3 winning favourites since 1997 and all bar 5 of the last 19 winners came from the top 9 in the market. That can usually take out half the field, but be aware that the last two winners went in at 20/1 and 25/1. We have also had a couple of winners at 33/1 and another at 25/1 since 2001 so this is definitely a race where you can take two or three against the field. From an age perspective we have seen some real old boys win this recently in Oscar Time (13yo) and Hello Bud (as a 12yo and a 14yo). Those aside, the dominant age group is 8yo to 10yo with 14 of the last 19 winners. They do, however, make up the majority of the runners. The 9yo to 10yo age bracket have the best strike rate, combining for 11 winners since 1998.

Interestingly, all bar 1 winner since 1997 managed a top 5 finish in their last outing or were pulled up or unseated their rider. Given that a lot of horses may have had their last run in the Grand National I would not be put off by one that fell into the latter two categories. In fact, 9 previous winners since 1997 had contested the Grand National so that is a pretty decent pointer. All bar three winners in that time had raced over at least 3m 5f so this really is a stayers’ race.

Going on the most recent trends (since 2008) we have quite a narrow official ratings band that has produced 7 of the last 8 winners. That band is from 130 – 137, the exception being the 148 rated Vic Venturi who won this in 2009. He also carried a big weight of 11st 12lbs in the process and that also stands out amongst the recent winners. The other 7 winners since 2008 all carried under 11st. Horses that raced in the 15 days prior to the Becher Chase should be avoided as they have an overall record of 0-73. A break of 16 – 60 days looks ideal for those horses that have had a run in the current season and those that have had that kind of break have produced 10 winners in the last 19 renewals. A further 6 winners took this on their seasonal reappearance and so lack of a recent run is not a concern. In fact, seasonal debutants are 6-55 (11% strike rate) which is far better than those with a run under their belts. A win over 3 miles or further also looks like a good statistic and accounts for no fewer than 14 of the 19 winners since 1997.

Given the special nature of these fences, I tend to look for any horse that has run over them before. That is usually the Grand National or a previous appearance in the Becher Chase itself. I also sit up and take note of whichever horse Sam Waley-Cohen is set to ride. For an amateur he has an exceptional record at Aintree. He has ridden 6 winners from 36 rides there for a level stakes profit of £33.33 and ridden a further 9 into the places which increases profit to £63.55.

Here is the trends profile for the past winners of the Becher Chase:

• Aged 8yo or 10yo
• Top 5 finish LTO, or pulled up or unseated
• Top 9 in the betting
• Rated 130 – 137
• Carrying under 11st
• A break of 16 – 60 days or seasonal reappearance
• Ran in the Grand National
• Completed over the Grand National fences
• Raced over 3m 5f or further
• Nigel Twiston-Davies
• Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen

Nick will be taking the above into the mix when he assesses the main contenders and to find his final selection(s) click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 3rd Dec

The Becher Chase is one of the races we covered in the November Insiders Report. This year is a bit of a mixed bag in terms of horses ticking all the right boxes but the one who ticks plenty and is well handicapped is Alvarado and he goes on the short list. Highland Lodge is being offered up at big price with PaddyPower and although 5lb higher he is still at the right end of weights and ratings scale of previous winners. Vieux Lion Rouge is the final selection who ran well in the Grand National and goes well fresh. Again, he has a nice weight.

Alvarado @10/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, BV)
Highland Lodge @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 5 places, PP/SJ)
Vieux Lion Rouge @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, WH)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Free Hennessey Gold Cup guide/tips

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 26th Nov’16)
Last time around the free tips had a mixed bag of results with the Premier League corners punts landing a 5/4 winner (Southampton v Liverpool – under 10 corners), whilst Bournemouth v Stoke City lacked action with only 7 corners which scuppered the suggested over 10 pick.

On the horse racing front Donna’s Diamond ran a cracking race to finish 4th at 50/1 but the place pay-out was subject to when, and who you placed the bet with after a couple of non-runners, which may have affected the terms.

The final weekend of November features the Hennessy Gold Cup which is without question one of the most competitive and informative staying chases of the entire jumps season and has been won by some of the greatest names in the game. For the current Betting Insiders Members Report (Issue 139) our resident Big Race Guru Nick Hardman put the key stats and traits under the microscope and here is an extract of his key findings:

The Hennessy Gold Cup (Sat 26th Nov – Newbury 15.10pm)
The second biggest handicap of the season after the Grand National, the Hennessy Gold Cup features a role of honour including the great Denman, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth and Grand National hero Many Clouds. Triolo D’Alene won this in 2013 at 20/1 to become the 6th winner to return at double figure odds since 2001. Horses aged 6yo and 7yo have provided the winner on 13 on the last 17 occasions and that is as good a place as any to start when using the trends to reduce the field.

Denman’s two victories were achieved off a top weight of 11st 10lbs, a feat also achieved by Trabolgan in 2005. Those two aside, only Bobs Worth (11st 6lbs), Suny Bay (11st 8lbs) and Many Clouds (11st 6lbs) have carried more than 11st 4lbs to victory. However, the weight statistics since 1997 are biased by a string of horses that won carrying 11st or less between 1998 and 2004. From 2005 to present, 9 of the last 11 winners shouldered 11st or more. That shift to the classier type is reflected in the OR of the winners. Between 1998 and 2004 all the winners were rated less than 150. Since 2005, there have been 8 winners rated 150+ and all of the last 11 winners were rated 145+ (compared to just 2 between 1998 and 2004).

This race has been good to favourite backers with 6 winning since 1997 and in total 10 of the last 19 came from the top two in the market. With the third and fourth favourites combining for another 3 wins, it may pay to concentrate on the top 4 or 5 in the betting market. It also pays to concentrate on those horses making their seasonal debut or with just a single run under their belt as they account for 16 of the last 19 winners. A win over a minimum distance of 3m ½f looks a prerequisite and fits the profile of 16 of the last 19 winners. Twelve of the last 16 had won at Graded or Listed level and that also looks to be a strong statistic given the way the average weight carried and official rating of the winners has risen in the last 10 years or so. Here is our profile:

• Aged 6yo or 7yo
• Rated 150+
• Carrying 11st or more
• Top 5 in the betting
• Seasonal debut or a maximum of one run in the current season
• Winning form over 3m ½f or further
• Previous winning form in Graded or Listed races

Nick will be taking the above into the mix when he assesses the main contenders and to find his final selection(s) click here to read on:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 26th Nov
Newbury 3.10pm
The main event and a race we looked at in the Betting Insiders Report for November. The trends qualifiers are Native River and Un Temps Pour Tout. The former makes more appeal off 11-01. Stablemate Theatre Guide has finished 2nd and 3rd on his previous two starts in this race and could give each-way backers a run for their money. At bigger prices Vicente seems to have been a bit ignored in the betting. He is 4 from 8 over fences and is a thorough stayer. He also fits the bill in terms of age, OR and winning form over 3m+. Could go well at a decent price.

Native River @6/1 Gen
Theatre Guide @18/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 4 places, BFsb) or 16/1 (1/5 odds, 5 places,PP)
Vicente @20/1 Each-Way (1/4 odds, 6 places, Skybet) or (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve

Profits “Cornered”

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 19th Nov’16)
Last time around the free horse racing tips were unable to replicate the cracking returns from the week before with Aso (adv EW 16/1) faring the best in the BetVictor Gold Cup in finishing 4th to land the place spoils. Of the other two, As De Mee and Frodon, the latter was still travelling well when a bad blunder at the 4th put paid to his chance. Still only a 4yo he has plenty of time to make amends in the coming seasons and is definitely one to keep close tabs on.

The Betting Insiders Club does focus primarily on horse racing but the community threads and monthly Members Reports also carry plenty of coverage from the other popular punting sports such as football and tennis. In the latest edition (Issue 139) there is an interesting article written by an experienced football pundit, Liam Apicella, who highlights interesting ways to potentially profit from the side markets such as corners and the following are extracts from the informative piece.

Over to Liam….

Corners
Right, I will try to make this as least dull as possible. But let’s face it; corners are not exactly the most exciting topics of discussion – unless it is reminiscing about the time when Phil Jones took them for Man United! Or Harry Kane for England for that matter.

But what they do represent is the chance to make some money. On average there are between 10 and 11 corners in Premier League matches, which is why most bookmakers tend to offer odds on over and under 10.

On Saturday (November 19) Southampton play host to Liverpool – two sides that like to get the ball down and play an attractive brand of passing football. Because of that, matches involving these teams do not tend to have too many corners. On average Liverpool have won 5.8 corners this season and conceded 3.5, while the Saints are 4.5 for and 4.4 against. Long story short, back under 10 corners in this game (Stan James 5/4).

On the same day, Bournemouth take on Stoke City. Granted it is not that exciting of a match on paper, but both teams like a corner! Bournemouth win six each match and ship 4.2, with Stoke earning 5.67 and conceding a hefty 7.89 – a Premier League high. Over 10 corners in this game are worth considering for sure (Stan James 9/10).

Click here to find out more about the comprehensive Insiders Club package and how to get your hands on the latest Report, including Liam’s football coverage, which is packed with new angles and strategies.

In addition to the aforementioned Premier League football bets we also have a few selections courtesy of Big Race guru Nick Hardman. Click here to find out what he will be backing this weekend:-

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 19th Nov

Ascot 3.15pm
Quite By Chance won with plenty in hand over C&D last time out and if building on that he can close in this better contest for his in-form yard. Cold March goes well fresh and also has course form. The Williams yard have started to have a few winners and he should also run well.
Quite By Chance @13/2 PP/Sbet
Cold March @6/1

Haydock 2.25pm
I am going to take a punt on three at big prices with the main angle being that 5yo and 6yo runners have won the last 7 renewals. First is Matorico who had an excellent campaign last year. The extra 2 and a bit furlongs could see further improvement this year and he rates a lively outsider as does Western Cape. His trainer Seamus Mullins nearly caused an upset with Song Light at Cheltenham on Sunday and his horses typically slip under the radar. At a huge price Donna’s Diamond should outrun his odds in these conditions and stays 3 miles well which will help. Could plod on into a place when a few have had enough.
Donna’s Diamond @40/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Skybet)
Matorico @20/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 4 places, BFSB)
Western Cape @16/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, Skybet)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win

Darren & Steve

Follow up to last weekends 14/1 winner?

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th Nov’16)
It didn’t take long for the free Big Race selections to return to their normal level of form with last weekend’s picks nailing one of the Breeders Cup races over at Santa Anita. Here is a quick reminder of our Big Race guru Dr Nick Hardman’s thoughts as to why he could see Obviously running a big race

“Santa Anita 9.05pm
I think this is the most interesting race on the card due to the unique nature of the track. I have read a lot about horses with speed coming back in trip and being hard to peg back. That’s the angle I’ll play and two who fit the bill are Obviously (adv EW 14/1) and Celestine (adv EW 10/1).”

The form book details that although he wasn´t best away (normal for him) he soon recovered to lead, and was then able to control things from there. Things got a bit desperate close to home but he just held on to win by a nose!

Nick’s selections cannot win every race but they have been making solid profits for just shy of two years now and you may be interested to watch this video which explains the methods behind them.

Profitable Betting Method Video The brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 139) includes Nick’s insightful trends and key stats for a number of the big races due to take place in the coming weeks, one of which is the feature event on Saturday’s top class card at Cheltenham:-

BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Sat 12th Nov, 2.25pm Cheltenham)
This is a race that has been dominated in recent years by those to the fore in the betting. Six of the last nine renewals have gone to one of the horses in the top three in the betting, the exceptions being Little Josh, Caid Du Berlais and last year’s winner Annacotty. I would certainly concentrate on the top half of the market with the top 8 having supplied all bar two winners since 1997.

Eleven of the last 13 winners were aged 6yo or 7yo, the exceptions being Little Josh (8yo) and Caid Du Berlais (5yo). Normal service was resumed in 2015 when Annacotty won at the age of 7 and this race normally goes to a second or third season chaser who is prominent in the betting. Given this event is early in the season there are no surprises to see 10 of the last 19 winners take this first time out and a further 7 winning after a single prep run. Horses having run twice or more already in the season are 2-80.

Course form looks a positive with 16 of the last 19 winners having competed in a chase at the previous Cheltenham Festival. 14 of the last 19 winners had previous winning form at Cheltenham over the trip of 2m 4 ½f or further. Caid Du Berlais ran 3rd in the Fred Winter (2013) and 2nd in the Martin Pipe Conditional race (2014) over hurdles so he had plenty of the aforementioned course form.

Al Ferof lugged a big weight (11st 8lbs) off a lofty mark of 159 to win this in 2012. That was a bit of a trends buster, the previous five and the next two winners all carried 11st or less and were rated 139 – 148.

Eight last time out winners have won the Paddy Power since 1997 (10% strike rate) and a further three winners were runner-up on their previous start (6% strike rate). Although this race is over 2m 4 ½f it is interesting to note that no fewer than 15 of the last 19 winners had actually raced over 3 miles or further during their career. Only 1 winner since 1997 has been trained in Ireland. Those trainers with a good record in this race include Paul Nicholls (2 wins in the last 4 years), Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 wins in the last 8 years) and Jonjo O’Neill (2 wins in the last 10 years). Philip Hobbs and Alan King have had a number of placed runners in recent times, often at decent each-way prices and the latter went one better when saddling Annacotty last year.

• Aged 6yo or 7yo
• No more than one run in the current season
• Top 8 in the betting
• Rated 139 – 148
• Carrying 11st or less
• Ran at the 2016 Cheltenham festival
• Won at Cheltenham previously
• Top 2 finish LTO
• Raced over 3m or further
• Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies

Nick will be taking the above into consideration when settling on his final selections which you can find below…

Nick Hardman’s Big Race Selections – Sat 12th Nov
The trends qualifiers are Double Shuffle, Aso, Stilletto and As De Mee. Of the quartet I think As De Mee looks to hold a decent chance as he ran More Of That to a couple of lengths here last year, has distance winning form and ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival (another stat many previous winners have). I think Aso is an interesting runner who has form ties with Ballyalton (Festival winner) and Fox Norton. Any rain would help his cause no end and he could outrun his odds if ready to go. I will also have a saver on Frodon who Paul Nicholls speaks glowingly about and gets a handy weight for age allowance and Harry Cobden’s 3lb claim.

Frodon @8/1 Gen
As De Mee @8/1 Gen
Aso @16/1 e/w Gen (1/4 odds, 6 places, BV, 5pl B365)

All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!

Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve