Cheltenham ante-post bets 2009 By Ricky Taylor
The Cheltenham festival is getting closer and I’m very much focussed on stealing some value out of the ante-post markets.
The strategy is not necessarily to identify the winner of the big races but to identify those horses that represent good value in the ante-post listings. The aim is to identify a few horses that look over-priced and hope that they will shorten dramatically come the big day. This would thereby create opportunities to either hold a position or lay-off all or part of the bet on the exchanges.
The World Hurdle
The World Hurdle looks very interesting to me because I think that Kasbah Bliss looks the most likely winner. I’ve already invested at 7 to 2 and he is currently on offer at around 100 to 30 on the exchanges. I think anything above 2 to 1 is good value because I can only see Big Bucks and Punchestowns as the dangers.
Big Bucks looks the most dangerous rival because he has just beaten Punchestowns at Cheltenham. The ground was bottomless that day and on firmer ground the placings between these two might be reversed. However, if the ground was riding fast I think Kasbah Bliss would be a good thing. He would have simply too much flat race speed for either Big Bucks or Punchestowns because it has to be remembered that he finished fourth in a Group One flat race at Longchamp last year and won a Group race and other flat races since his Cheltenham exploits.
The best festival form is past festival form and Kasbah Bliss wasn’t too far behind Inglis Dreaver in the race last year and he looks to be on the upgrade. His trainer knows how to win races at Cheltenham and he knows when he has a good horse, and he has always held Kasbah Bliss in the highest regard. At this stage he looks like a banker.
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by Ricky Taylor
December was a great month for followers of trainer trends. In last month’s column I predicted that Nicky Henderson would have a cracking December, and he didn’t disappoint. He had winners at all odds, racking up doubles, and trebles on most big race weekends during the month. According to the statistics he looks destined for another good month, but perhaps not as good as in November and December. As well as Nicky Henderson there are plenty of other trainers well worth following, and a few more that should be avoided.
For the benefit of new readers I’ll just spend a few lines restating the methodology behind my monthly trainer trends. In order to produce meaningful results I’ve only considered the results from recent jump race seasons. Furthermore, I’ve excluded those trainers that had fewer than four winners in the month in question, and had fewer than 30 runners.
In Table 1 I’ve presented my results. The Table is ordered by the rate of return (Profit/Loss %).
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Some of the most successful bettors I know credit their success to the use of ratings. Mostly they create their own ratings but they all started out using the ratings from their daily newspaper.
Some started out with the Racing Post but many used the ratings from The Sun or The Mail or another daily newspaper.
The secret to success with ratings is to convert them into a chance for each horse this will be a percentage chance of each horse winning the race and these chances when all added together should of course equal 100%. Because one of the horses in the race will definitely be the winner.
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