For most of my adult life I have been in regular contact with a man that I consider to be a betting genius. That is except he has one fatal flaw and that is what I want to talk about today.
This man could watch a horse race and know if it was giving 100%, know if the jockey was using it’s full capability and could assess how good it really was.
He can analyse a race inside out and find nailed on winners at crazy prizes, this is a man who can find winners at 33/1 without the benefit of inside knowledge!
The flaw though is one of confidence, reality and pressure. Which all boil down to psychology.
Continue reading Flawed Genius
If more than one tipster naps a particular runner in a race does that mean you should back it or lay it?
This is the question on my mind this morning, having just read an article which proposes that we look for consensus naps to back. IE when two tipsters make the same selection there best win bet of the day we should bet it to win.
There was a time when I would have considered this a good strategy, but that was before I had a good understanding of value and market forces.
The answer to the question is not straightforward, which unfortunately is often the case!
If The Sun newspaper naps a selection you can be sure that there will be a lot of people betting that horse. If it is also napped by the Racing Post then a whole lot more people will be considering it as a bet also. What this means is that the horse will be overbet and market forces will cause the price to shorten.
It’s just simple supply and demand if everybody wants to buy something the price goes up. Like the housing market when huge mortgages are easy to come by, the price of a house goes up because for every house there is competition to buy it. Now we have a credit squeeze on there are not so many buyers so the seller has to reduce their price in order to make the sale.
In betting to win, the equivalent of the price going up is that the prices shorten EG your 2/1 shot is suddenly only available at 6/4. If it has a one in three chance then it is now bad value and is a bad bet, whether it wins or loses, because over the long term at level stakes you will lose if you back horses with a one in three chance at odds of less than 2/1. Fact.
Win @ 6/4 = +1.5
Lose @6/4 = -1
Lose @6/4 = -1
Grand Total = – 0.5
So to get back to the opening question the answer is that if you have access to a couple of unknown but good tipsters and they both nap a selection and the rest of the world doesn’t, then it is likely that you are onto a value bet.
On the other hand if two well known and popular tipsters nap the same selection, then you might want to look closer at the selection with a view to laying it to lose, it is unlikley that the selection will start at a value price.
6. Try to catch these blips for in running trading opportunities, by using a tool like Betfair Assistant or Bet Angel to Back prominent horses when they jump up in price. Practice with small stakes and lay it off again once matched for a free bet.
7. Make use of the software tools available to take action quicker when the situation is right.
8. Often a short priced (odds on) favourite will drift out to a big price as a result of a minor blunder or just because it’s not prominent. Take advantage of these big prices. Just today I watched a 1.57 shot drift out to 2.9 and go onto win. If you could back every 1.57 shot at 2.9 you would soon be in front.
9. If you can lay two horses in a race at odds of less than 2.0 then you are guaranteed a profit. Favourites often change in running and often more than one horse will trade at less than 2.0 in the same race. In fact often more than one horse will trade at less than 1.5
10. Finally like our big player in item 4 laying all available money on a horse there will also be backers who have decided that the time is right to back their selection at any price. This will cause big dips in prices that instantly recover as the layers pump more money into the market. If you can react quickly or if your money is already waiting in the laying queue to be matched you can close out a profitable trade as the price rebounds back to where it should be
Rating a race is one of the essential skills needed in our constant battle with the bookmaker. There are probably as many ways of rating a race as there are punters, ranging from good old gut feeling, sticking a needle in the paper, to elaborate and sophisticated mathematical formulas that Einstein would be proud of!
You could of course use one of the many professional rating services out there, or your daily newspaper, or the Racing Post or even the excellent Adrian Massey ratings available free on his website: www.adrianmassey.com. If, like me though, you’d prefer a more hands on approach and the thrill of winning when you get it right you could try something along the lines of the rating system I’ve set out below.
I’m not saying this is the only way to rate a race but it is a pretty solid approach and should help you to narrow down your selections for any race that you are interested in.
1 Rating Recent Form
Award points for the last three runs as follows:
POSITION LAST RUN 2nd TO LAST RUN 3rd TO LAST RUN
FIRST 9 6 3
SECOND 6 4 2
THIRD 3 2 1
Horse A’s last three runs are 113 which is 3+6+3 = 12
Horse B’s last three runs are 212 which is 2+6+6 = 14
Horse C’s last three runs are 001 which is 0+0+9 + 9
Read this lesson in full in our Members Area
Unfortunately there will be no selections today due to technical problems, normal service resumes tomorrow