The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 13th July)
It was a tall order to follow up on the previous week’s 1-2 in the Northumberland Plate and so it proved with Nick Hardman’s fancies for the Coral Handicap not able to trouble the judge this time around.
Followers of his Big Race Tips service were treated to a handy winner with Royal Lytham (adv EW 14/1) landing the spoils on the 1st day of the Newmarket July Festival and Kings Advice at 10/1 on Friday.
If you want to be on all of Nick’s Big Race Tips try his service here – https://bigracetips.co.uk/
For the coming weekend Nick has turned his attention to the key traits of the past winners of the bet365 Bunbury Cup a summary of which are as follows:-
Bunbury Cup (Class 2 Heritage Handicap, 7f) – Sat 13th – Newmarket 3.30pm
The big handicap of the weekend and lots of trends to get stuck into.
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5yo or 6yo. 4yo’s used to dominate but that appears to no longer be the case.
9 of the last 11 winners were rated 99 to 105 and the last 7 were rated 99 to 101 whilst 12 of the last 14 winners had been off the track for 21 days or longer.
10 of the last 11 victorious horses carried 9st or more to victory so a light weight is not required to win this and it seems like the most recent trends point towards those to the fore in the handicap.
18 winners since 1997 could be found in the top 8 in the betting and that helps in narrowing the field as around 16+ go to post.
Richard Fahey is the most successful trainer in recent times with three wins since 2011 so take note of his entries this time around.
Recent form has no real bearing on the outcome with only 2 last time out winners successful since 1997.
A previous win over 7f is essential (20/22), and all 22 previous winners had raced between 2 and 6 times in the current season. 18/22 had also raced over a mile or further previously.
2 to 7 previous career wins is solid (19/22) as is 1 to 4 previous handicap wins (18/22).
19/22 last ran in a Class 2 or 3 handicaps. Those with previous winning form at Class 1 or 2 level have a superior strike rate but avoid those that ran at Class 1 level LTO as they have only produced 1 winner since 1997.
11/22 last ran at Royal Ascot which could be worth noting. The overall profile looks like this:
- Trained by Richard Fahey
- Aged 5yo or 6yo
- Rated 99 to 105 (99 to 101 ideally)
- Carrying 9st or more
- Off the track for 21 days or longer
- Top 8 in the betting
- Won over 7f
- Raced over a mile or further
- 2 to 7 career wins
- 1 to 4 handicap wins
- Ran in a class 2 or 3 handicap LTO
- Won at class 1 or class 2 level
- Last ran at Royal Ascot
Nick will be applying the above to help in his deliberations and to find out which of the entries he settles on as his final selection(s) read on:-
Sat 13th July
The trends race of the weekend and the qualifiers are Kynren and Keyser Soze. Lots in with chances including Burnt Sugar off 2lb higher than when winning this last year and I would not rule out a return to form from Zap back over 7f on fast ground.
Kynren @7/1 non-runner
Keyser Soze @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
With Kynren being a non-runner I am bringing in one of the other two I mentioned in Zap. Like I said, well handicapped, conditions to suit and the first time visor might help spark him back to life.
Zap @20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve