The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 27th April)
It was a big ask to follow up the previous weekends stonking winner, Takingrisks – Won 25/1, but the trends profiling we featured last time around helped our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, go pretty close in the Irish Grand National. One of his final selections Isleofhopendreams (adv EW 28/1) ran a cracker and traded close to evens in-running before having to settle for second place behind his stablemate Burrows Saint.
On Saturday the curtain falls on the current Jumps campaign with the traditional finale meeting at Sandown and the feature Handicap Chase, the bet365 Gold Cup, has been given the trends treatment by Nick and hopefully these will again prove fruitful in narrowing the field down to some serious contenders at decent prices.
Nick’s trends insights are a regular feature in the weekly Insiders Club Members Reports and the brand new edition, Issue 181, has just been released and includes the “Inside track to Arbitrage” as our Arb expert shares more ways of exploiting the bookmakers offers with risk free and profitable punting techniques.
Following that Dave Renham digs into the sire stats of 2yo’s with some potentially profitable angles to consider, the selections of which will be made available on the Insiders Club community/forum.
We wrap up this report with the latest feedback from our hard working team of product/service testers who put the claims of the vendors to the test over the course of a 3 month trial.
The Members Reports form part of the comprehensive package available from the Betting Insiders Club and you can find out all about it here.
bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase – (3m 5f) – Sandown 3.35pm Sat 27th April
The last big jumps meeting of the season and the last big handicap chase sees the bet365 Sandown Gold Cup Chase.
Like most of these grueling races we need to go light and look to those carrying 11-00 or under as this lot have won this on 11 of the last 12 winners.
A break of at least 16 days also looks needed and accounts for 19 of the last 22 winners.
18 of the last 22 winners were aged 7yo to 9yo and that includes the last 6.
Official ratings are a mixed bag and there are no standout trends on that score.
This has not been a good race for favourite backers with only 1 obliging since 1997.
Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race with 4 wins since 2001 and Phillip Hobbs has also won it a couple of times.
19 of the last 22 winners had managed to finish in the first three on one of their last three runs.
Interestingly, 19 of the last 22 winners had only won over fences between 1 and 4 times previously and 17/22 had won either 0 or 2 handicap chases previously.
All of the profit from the runners has come from those with 0 or 1 previous handicap chase wins so that looks like the standout statistic in this race for long term profit.
Another interesting statistic is that 16 of the last 22 winners arrived having run at either the Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals or the Scottish and Irish Grand National meetings. Again, that could be noteworthy.
We also need one with at least 3 runs in the current season (20/22) and a previous win over at least 3 miles is also on the agenda for our trends profile (19/22).
Finally, 17 of the last 22 winners last ran in a handicap chase.
- Off the track for 16 days or longer
- Carrying under 11st
- Aged 7yo to 9yo
- Avoid the favourite
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Phillip Hobbs
- Top 3 finish on one of last 3 runs
- Between 1 and 4 chase wins
- 0 or 1 previous handicap chase wins
- Last ran at Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals or Irish or Scottish Grand National meeting
- Won over 3 miles or further
- At least 3 runs in the current season
- Last ran in a handicap chase
Read on to find out which of the bet365 Gold Cup runners tick the key trends boxes to feature in Nick’s final selections:-
Sat 27th April
The big trends race of the weekend and the qualifiers are:
Rolling Dylan @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Ballydine @16/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Captain Chaos @16/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Present Man @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019 Darren & Steve