The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 8th Feb)
It was good to get another winner on board with the Big Race Trends for the Scottish County Hurdle helping us hone in on Sebastopol (adv 11/2) who had enough in hand to keep the favourite at bay on the run to the line!
With four weekends under our belts in 2020 the Big Race Trends, which are a regular feature of the Insiders Club Members Reports, have honed in on a duo of winners, Vintage Cloud (adv 8/1) and Sebastopol (adv 11/2), along with Petite Power (adv EW) placing at 12/1 in the Classic Chase at Warwick.
In fact the Members Reports have been a great source of profits so far in the current campaign with the likes of the Sue Smith trainer angle landing 8 winners from just 22 runners and profits of just shy of ₤290 to level ₤10 stakes!
The Members Reports are published weekly and form an integral part of the comprehensive package on offer at the Betting Insiders Club. Each week we feature the Big Race Trends along with content from a select team of experienced and profitable pundits. These allow the reader to develop a portfolio approach across a range of popular punting sports.
Alongside this the Club forum also provides a shortlist of potential bets from angles and strategies which helps those pushed for time to have a daily punt if that is their want.
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Betfair Hurdle (Handicap, 2m 69yd, Grade 3 Class 1) Newbury 3.35pm
With just 6 weeks to go before the Cheltenham Festival, Newbury plays host to Betfair Super Saturday. With previous winners including Altior, before he won the Champion Chase, plus numerous horses that went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, including Denman, Coneygree and Native River, the day is set fair for some exciting action.
The 5th race on the 7 race card is the Betfair Hurdle which is worth a tidy 87 grand to the winner and is likely to have 20 or so runners going to post (Max 24).
Nicky Henderson (Never Adapt, Mill Green) does well in this, and he has saddled 5 winners since 1998. Gary Moore (Neff) won back-to-back renewals in 2007/2008, and won it again in 2015, and Nigel Twiston-Davies (Stolen Silver, Sir Valentine) has won 3 of the last 6 renewals.
19 of the last 21 winners were rated 131+. Both My Tent Or Yours and Zarkander have won this, both off lofty ratings.
If nothing of that calibre lines up this time around you can put a ceiling on the rating at around 144, and the band 131 to 144 would have found the winner in 16 of the last 21 renewals.
As you would expect in a race of this nature, we have had a fair few go in at meaty prices with people’s favourite Splash Of Ginge obliging at 33/1 and the Gary Moore trained Violet Dancer and Heathcote scored at 20/1 and 50/1 respectively. Another 6 winners have gone in at a double figure price since 1997.
Having said that the last 3 winners went off in single figures to the fore of the market, but generally speaking given the size of the field, there is no harm in taking 2 or 3 against the field, including one at a huge price if you fancy it to place at rewarding odds.
From a win perspective, look towards the front 7 in the market as they have given us 18 winners since 1997.
18 of the last 21 winners arrived off the back of a top 3 finish and that looks a strong statistic. Another strong trend is age, with 16 of the last 20 winners aged 5yo or 6yo, and that includes the last 13 renewals on the bounce.
2 to 4 runs in the current season is also a strong indicator and 18 previous winners fit the bill on that score whilst previous distance winners have double the strike rate of those without a win over the distance and I would be inclined to go with that.
Those that had previously won during the current season are a very positive indicator and those that had won between 1 and 3 previous hurdle races have provided us with 19 winners since 1997.
Putting that altogether gives us a pretty solid profile:
- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Gary Moore or Nigel Twiston-Davies.
- Rated 131 to 144.
- Top 3 finish LTO.
- Aged 5yo or 6yo.
- 2 to 4 runs in the current season.
- Top 7 in the betting.
- A win at the distance.
- 1 to 3 previous hurdles wins.
- 0 or 1 previous handicap hurdle wins.
We will be reviewing the runners on the day of the race with regard to the aforementioned pointers and you can find out the final selection(s) by clicking here to read on.
Sat 8th Feb
From the Trends perspective there are a number that have solid credentials but given the prices on offer we will go with a duo against the field. Both are running in the colours of legendary owner/punter JP McManus and also in the care of Champion Trainers albeit from different sides of the Irish Sea.
Never Adapt – Gen 7/1
Ciel De Neige – Gen 8/1
Together we can win in 2020!
Darren & Steve