Betfred Classic Chase
Welcome all to the coming weekend’s looksee of top class equine action which amongst the feature events due to be run is the Betfred Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick. This race was covered by Big Race Guru Nick Hardman for the brand new Betting Insiders Report so it seems apt to share his key stats and traits for the Grade 3, Class 1 race.
Over to Nick:-
Betfred Classic Chase (Grade 3 handicap; 3m 5f); Warwick 15.35pm
A true slog if ever there was one, the Classic Chase is for real stayers especially when run on the usual soft or heavy ground. Paul Nicholls has a decent record in this with 3 wins since 2006 and Alan King won this in 2008 and 2011 although surprisingly neither has an runner this time around. Other trainers to note are the likes of Kerry Lee, Venetia Williams and Lucinda Russell who are adept at training staying chasers.
12 of the past 15 winners carried 11-01 or less so I will be looking for those racing under this weight, especially if the conditions are attritional.
Horses rated higher than 137 have won just 3 renewals since 2000 so look for something rated under 138.
2 or 3 runs in the current season looks perfect and accounts for 12 of the last 15 winners.
This is a real slog so no surprise to see that all bar 1 of the previous winners had won a race over at least 3 miles and all bar 2 had raced over 3m 2f or further.
Horses with Grand National experience have won 3 times and horses with race experience over 4 miles or further have won 8 times. A run in a “National” of some description looks a plus.
Favourites (including joint and co-favourites) are 1-16 so they are worth taking on as winners have come from all over the betting market including 10th, 11th and 12th.
That gives the race a wide-open feel and it has produced its fair share of double-figure priced winners, the biggest being Russe Blance in 2016 at an SP of 20/1.
Older horses do well with 13 of the last 15 winners aged 8yo or older. In fact, the 8yo+ brigade have won 9 of the last 10 renewals.
The last 13 winners had all raced in the last 42 days and those with a win under their belts in the current season and have placed at Listed or Graded level have a decent strike rate. Putting all that together gives us the following profile:
• Aged 8yo or older
• Carrying 11-01 or less on soft or heavy ground
• Rated under 138
• 2 or 3 runs in the current season
• Won over 3 miles or further
• Raced over 4 miles or further or competed in one of the Nationals
• A win in the current season
• Had a run in the last 42 days
• Placed at Listed and/or Graded level
Nick will be using the above to help narrow down the field of the Betfred Classic to a handful of horses with the winning profile. From these he will make his final selection(s) and you can find these by reading on here.
Sat 13th Jan
Betfred Classic Handicap Chase (Warwick 15.35pm)
The Classic Chase got the trends treatment in the latest edition of the Insiders Report. Nothing really stands out in terms of ticking all the right boxes but Krackatoa King does have a decent trends profile. I also like the chances of Cogry if his jumping holds up as his 2nd in the Scottish National is amongst the best form on offer. Finally, Creswell Breeze races off the same mark as when 3rd at Sandown last time and a repeat of that effort would see her go close.
Creswell Breeze @9/1
Krackatoa King @9/1
All that remains is to wish you all a prosperous 2018.
Together We Can Win
Darren, Steve and the Insiders Club team.