The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 6th April)
Last time around we welcomed in the new Flat season with the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster and the free selections had to settle for second and fifth place behind a mightily impressive winner Auxerre. The Charlie Appleby trained 4yo travelled well throughout and looks a pattern race winner in waiting based on that performance. We did grab some EW spoils with Ripp Orf (adv EW) and grabbing these kinds of returns does help with bank management over the course of the campaign.
For the coming weekend all eyes will be on Aintree for the 2019 running of the most famous horse race on the planet, the Grand National. This race was naturally given the trends treatment by Nick Hardman for the latest Insiders Club Members Report but he also carried out similar research on the race that precedes the National. Hopefully these can help fund some of the stakes on the Big One!
Betway (Mildmay) Listed Handicap Chase (3m 1f) Aintree 4.20pm
We start with our trainers to follow and they include Philip Hobbs (3 wins since 2010, Springtown Lake & Reikers Island), Nicky Henderson (2 wins since 2004) and Jonjo O’Neill (4 wins since 2000).
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8yo and upwards and 12 of the last 13 winners had had a break of 21 to 35 days. A big weight appears to be a negative and all of the last 11 winners carried 11-03 or less. We also have quite a narrow band in terms of official ratings amongst the most recent winners. That band is 134 to 140 and accounts for 9 of the last 11 winners.
A good recent run is also a positive and 16 of the last 22 winners posted a top 6 finish last time out. 11 of those 22 posted a top 3 finish which is half of all winners since 1997.
This is run over 3m 1f and although only 6 previous winners had won over further, they do have a better overall strike rate. I would probably not read too much into that as 8 previous winners had never won a race over 3 miles but all bar 3 of the 22 winners since 1997 had previously tackled a 3 mile trip or further.
Between 3 and 6 races in the current season looks spot on and accounts for 17 of the last 22 winners. Also, 18 of the last 22 winners had won between 1 and 4 chases, 19 of the last 22 winners competed in a Class 1 or 2 race last time out and this time no fewer than 12 previous winners arrived here from the Cheltenham Festival.
Those with a previous Class 1 race win are the ones that have generated all the profit since 1997 so keep them onside if they fit the other key trends.
That gives us the following profile:
- Aged 8yo or older
- Off the track for 21 to 35 days
- Carrying 11-03 or less
- Rated 134 to 140
- Top 6 finish last time out (ideally top 3)
- Run over 3 miles or further previously
- Between 3 and 6 runs in the current season
- Won 1 to 4 chases
- Ran at class 1 or 2 level last time out and previous class 1 winning form
- Ran at the Cheltenham Festival
- Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, Phillip Hobbs or Nicky Henderson
Sat 6th April
I have run through the trends and they point to one qualifier in Some Buckle who is a massive price having left Tom George for the small yard of Richard Bandey. Ran as well as can be expected to finish 9th at Cheltenham after 11 months off. Has won on soft and should stay but minor place money probably. Touch Kick ticks plenty of boxes too and On Tour is well handicapped if a return to Aintree sparks a revival.
On Tour @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places)
Some Buckle @40/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Touch Kick @11/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve