The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 16th Feb’18)
Thankfully the equine flu outbreak appears to be under control and racing in GB resumed a few days ago albeit with a few understandable additional precautions. The BHA has been pro-active with the fixture list to try and reschedule some of the big races that were postponed during the break. To that end Ascot stages a 9 race meeting on Saturday which includes the rerouted Betfair Hurdle and alongside this there is also top class action at Haydock.
It was the Merseyside based track that our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, focussed his attention with key trends for a duo of the feature events for his article in the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 171. The following is a summary of his findings for the Grand National Trial and we will also be sharing Nick’s selections for this prestigious event as soon as his deliberations have been completed.
William Hill Grand National Trial (3m 4 1/2f; Grade 3/Class 1 Handicap Chase) – Haydock 3.35pm
The first thing to note is that 10 of the last 13 renewals have been run on going officially described as heavy (Current forecast Good to Soft, Soft in places on the Chase course). Those 10 renewals on heavy ground have seen winners carry weights of 10-0 (3 times), 10-5 (twice), 10-11 (twice), 11-0, 11-7 and 11-12.
In fact, since 1997 only 7 winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory and on soft or heavy going it may well pay to look at those horses carrying under 11-0, although Lie Forrit did manage to lug 11-6 to victory on soft going in 2015. The percentage call is under 11st on heavy ground, so look to those off a light weight from the mudlark yards such as Kerry Lee, Lucinda Russell, Venetia Williams and Sue Smith.
There have been 3 winning favourites since 1997 and it has paid to stick to the top half of the market with 20 of the last 21 winners coming from the first 8 in the betting. All the last 21 winners went in at odds of 18/1 or shorter and 6 of the last 7 were single figure odds. Those sent off at odds of 20/1 or higher are 0-57 so there are not that many shocks in this race.
The last 11 winners were all aged between 8yo and 11yo, so I will be looking to that age group this time around and I would not go backing anything with a recent run either since 14 of the last 16 winners had been off the track for at least a month (34 days to be precise).
There is quite a wide rating band in terms of the OR of the winners. However, 10 of the last 11 were rated 139 to 149 and I will probably be sticking with that this time around.
A top 2 finish LTO accounts for 75% of the winners since 1997 (15 of the last 21) and that is a pretty strong statistic.
The number of runs in the current season appears to have little bearing on the chances of winning this race but all bar 5 winners since 1997 had previously raced over 3m 5f or further and 18 of the last 21 winners had won a race over at least 3 miles.
Another strong statistic I have uncovered is that 19 of the last 21 winners had won between 2 and 4 chases and we should also be looking at runners with a win under their belts in the current season as these types account for 80% of the winners since 1997. We also find that 17 winners in that time had won between 1 and 3 handicap chases.
All that gives us a nice profile of the typical winner:
• Carrying 11-0 or less if the going is heavy
• Top 8 in the betting
• Rated 139 to 149
• Top two finish LTO
• Odds under 18/1
• Aged 8yo to 11yo
• Rated 139 to 149
• Off the track for 34 days or longer
• Won a race over 3m or further
• Raced over 3m 5f or further
• Trained by Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell or Kerry Lee
• Won between 2 and 4 chases
• Won 1 to 3 handicap chases
• Won a race in the current season
You can get your hands on the brand new Weekly Members Report which is an integral part of the comprehensive Insiders Club package which you can find out all about here – https://bettinginsiders.com
Sat 16th Feb
Another from the Insiders Report and the qualifiers are Robinsfirth and Impulsive Star.
Impulsive Star @9/1
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve