The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 26th Jan’18)
Last time around we shared the key trends for the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock which our resident Big Race Guru, Nick Hardman, used to settle on a couple that appeared to fit the right profile. The result was a win for the Sue Smith trained Wakanda which was noted in the trends whilst Nick’s picks ran ok races but were not involved at the business end of the race.
On Saturday Cheltenham are holding their traditional Festival Trials Day and the 7 race card will no doubt provide plenty of pointers for the big one in March. Nick reviewed a couple of the races for the brand new Weekly Members Report (Issue 168) and here are his key findings for the feature handicap chase:-
Spectra Cyber Security Solutions Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m 4 ½f); Cheltenham 1.50pm
A nice betting race with usually a double figure field (11 Declared), this normally goes to a fancied runner with only 2 of the last 21 winners going in at double figure odds. In fact, 14 of the 21 winners came from the front 3 in the betting and 18/21 from the front 6. Also, best to concentrate on the runners aged 6yo to 9yo as they have been responsible for all bar 3 winners since 1997. From a trainer perspective, Phillip Hobbs (War Sound) has won this 3 times since 1999 so his runners are worth a second look.
We have seen a move to the classier types higher up the handicap in recent times. In the last 8 renewals, 6 winners carried 10-13 or more and 7 were rated 144+. I would also be inclined to go with those runners that have had a break of 21 days or more as that fits the bill for 17 of the last 20 winners since 1998. Those horses that finished first or second last time out have a combined record of 14-86.
I would also go with one that has winning form over further than the trip of 2m 4 ½f to 2m 5f. These runners have a better strike rate and clearly it helps to motor up the famous hill at the end. In fact, 8 previous winners had won over 3 miles or further. Between 1 and 4 previous chase wins looks about right as does no more than 3 previous handicap chase wins. Those already on the scoreboard in the current season have double the strike rate of those that have not yet found the winners’ enclosure.
Finally, that all important course form really does help. 8 previous winners had already won here and no fewer than 13 had placed at the track on a previous visit (Ballyhill CD)
That gives us the following profile:
• Top 6 in the betting market
• Aged 6yo to 9yo
• Carrying 10st 13lbs or more
• Rated 144+
• Off the track for 21 days or longer
• Top 2 finish last time out
• Trained by Phillip Hobbs
• Won over further than 2m 5f
• 1 to 4 previous chase wins
• A win in the current season
• 0 to 3 previous handicap chase wins
• Previous form at Cheltenham (win or place)
The Weekly Members Report forms an integral part of the comprehensive Insiders Club package so if your previous efforts have not delivered the level of returns that your punting exploits had aspired to then why not make a change for the better and check out how the Insiders Club can help 2019 be more profitable. You can find all about it here.
To read on and find out which of the runners Nick will be supporting in the big Handicap at Cheltenham on Saturday click here.
Saturday 26th Jan – Cheltenham 1.50pm
A second race from the Insiders Report and Activial and Janika are the ones who tick all the right boxes from a trends perspective.
Activial @10/1 Gen
Janika @7/2 Gen
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve