The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th Jan)
As the weather continues to effect the racing action it is a timely reminder that operating a balanced portfolio across a number of sports can be a positive in such circumstances. It is certainly the approach that the Betting Insiders Club has been advocating for numerous years.
Sure horse racing is the primary focus of the Club but we also have plenty of other sports coverage such as football betting/trading, PGA Golf, Cricket trading and Grand Slam Women’s tennis to name just a few.
For the brand new Insiders Club Members Report our resident Women’s tennis guru, Gary Boswell, makes a compelling case as to why we should be taking on current favourite Serena Williams in her pursuit of that elusive record breaking 24th slam.
Not content with that proposition Gary goes on to highlight 5 contenders in the outright markets ranging from double figures all the way up to 250/1.
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Back on the racing front last time around we featured the trends for the Classic Chase at Warwick and the final duo of selections ran decent races with Petite Power faring the best in landing place spoils with a third at 12/1.
For the coming weekend the Members Report focussed on the Peter Marsh Chase up at Haydock and a summary of the findings is as follows:-
Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2; 3m); Haydock 2.40pm
This 3 mile limited handicap has been run on heavy ground on 9 of the last 12 renewals and at the time of writing the going is forecast to be just that this coming Saturday.
Given the generally soggy underfoot conditions it should come as no surprise that the top weight (or joint top weight) has won just 2 of the last 19 renewals, one of those came on soft and the other on good to firm. On the assumption that the going will be heavy Definitely Red looks up against it should he take up the engagement, although he has won in those conditions previously.
Interestingly 15 of the other 17 winners carried at least 7lbs below the top weight and only 2 horses have carried more than 11st 2lbs to victory since 1997. Also, not surprising is that 7 of the 9 winners on heavy going had previous winning form on the ground and the other two had decent placed form under those most extreme conditions.
Venetia Williams is adept at training the mudlarks and she has twice trained the winner of this race. Likewise, Sue Smith has won the race 4 times. Look out for runners entered by these two along with David Pipe who is having a resurgence in form this season.
There has been only 2 winning favourite in the last 19 renewals and that is in spite of this race seeing small fields of 5 to 7 runners in the past. In fact, horses sent off at 4/1 or shorter have provided just 3 winners from 24 runners.
Age doesn’t seem to be a barrier as this race has been won by two 12yo’s, one 11yo and five who were aged 10yo. Despite this, 8yo runners have the best record and are 7-42 at a strike rate of 17%.
A run within the last 60 days is a definite positive and would have accounted for 17 of the last 19 winners, as does 2-3 runs in the current season, whilst course form also counts for a lot with 10 of the 19 winners already successful at Haydock.
17 of the 19 winners since 1997 had won no more than 3 handicap chases and those with a win on the board in the current season have a better strike rate than those that have not.
That gives us a decent profile to identify some of the likelier types who will line up for the Peter Marsh Chase.
- Carrying 11st 2lbs or less
- At least 7lbs below top weight
- 9/2 or higher in the betting
- Trained by Venetia Williams, Sue Smith or David Pipe
- Aged 8yo or older
- Winning form over 3m or further
- Raced over 3m 6f or further
- Last raced within 60 days
- 2-3 runs in the current season
- Previous winning form at Haydock
- Won no more than 3 handicap chases
- Won in the current season
We will be reviewing the runners on the day of the race with regard to the aforementioned pointers and you can find out the final selection(s) by clicking here to read on.
Sat 18th Jan
Peter Marsh Chase (Hayd 2.40pm)
Plenty in with chances but two that seem to have the right profile are:-
Prime Venture – 13/2 Gen
Vintage Clouds – 8/1 Gen
Together we can win in 2020!
Darren & Steve