The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 25th Jan)
The headline for last weekend’s newsletter was “Can Serena turn back the clock?” which came via our resident Women’s Tennis pundit, Gary Boswell, who had advised Insiders Club Members to take her on with a laybet on the exchanges.
The history books now show that Serena Williams will not win a record-equalling 24th grand slam singles title at the Australian Open after suffering a shock third round loss against Wang Qiang. The result puts Gary’s portfolio in profit and he still has a couple of big priced players going forward to boot.
Gary has a number of strings to his bow with horse racing very much one of his punting passions and outside of his club contributions he runs a very successful service that has allowed a number of punters quit the day job – You can find out about that here – https://betlesswinmore.co.uk
Last week’s newsletter had further good news to spread around as the duo of selections for the big trends race, the Peter Marsh, included the winner Vintage Clouds (adv 8/1) who relished the conditions and came home 7 lengths clear at the post.
For this week we will again turn to the Insiders Club Members Report for our main focal point which will be the big Handicap Chase on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham.
The Weekly Members Reports form part of the comprehensive package on offer at the Betting Insiders Club and regularly feature strategies on a number of the popular punting sports alongside the horse racing coverage.
If the last 12 months of your own punting haven’t quite reached the levels that you had aspired to then now is the perfect time to make a change for the better and find out more about the Insiders Club including a special offer – Click Here
Paddy Power 45 Sleeps to Cheltenham (Grade 3 handicap chase, 2m 4 ½f) 1.50pm Cheltenham
A nice betting race but unusually this time around only 10 have been declared to run from the maximum of 17. It normally goes to a fancied runner with only 2 of the last 22 winners going in at double figure odds. In fact, 15 of those 22 winners came from the front 3 in the betting and 19/22 from the front 6.
Also, best to concentrate on the runners aged 6yo to 9yo as they have been responsible for all bar 3 winners since 1997 and trainer Phillip Hobbs has won this 3 times since 1999 so his runners are worth a second look.
We have seen a move to the classier types higher up the handicap in recent times. In the last 9 renewals, 6 winners carried 10-13 or more and 7 were rated 144+.
We would also be inclined to go with those runners that have had a break of 21 days or more as that fits the bill for 18 of the last 21 winners since 1998. Those horses that finished first or second last time out have a combined record of 15-91.
We would also go with one that has winning form over further than the trip of 2m 4 ½f to 2m 5f. These runners have a better strike rate and clearly it helps to motor up the famous hill at the end. In fact, 8 previous winners had won over 3 miles or further.
Between 1 and 4 previous chase wins looks about right and those already on the scoreboard in the current season have double the strike rate of those that have not yet found the winners’ enclosure.
Finally, that all important course form really does help with 8 previous winners having already won here and no fewer than 13 had placed at the track on a previous visit.
That gives us the following profile:
- Top 6 in the betting market
- Aged 6yo to 9yo
- Carrying 10st 13lbs or more
- Rated 144+
- Off the track for 21 days or longer
- Top 2 finish last time out
- Trained by Phillip Hobbs
- Won over further than 2m 5f
- 1 to 4 previous chase wins
- A win in the current season
- Previous form at Cheltenham (win or place)
We will be reviewing the runners on the day of the race with regard to the aforementioned pointers and you can find out the final selection(s) by clicking here to read on.
Sat 25th Jan
After careful consideration of the trends detailed for the race the two we will go with against the field are:-
Warthog – Gen 6/1
Lalor – Gen 6/1
Together we can win in 2020!
Darren & Steve