Change Over Time Again – Part One

The Flat season officially opened on the 27th March with the two day meeting at Doncaster. This prestigious meeting signals a transitional phase between the end of the proper winter jumps season, and the beginning of the Flat season. Traditionally this period throws up some strange results. Therefore it could be a good time to take a break and start to prepare for the coming Flat season. With the lighter evenings approaching there’s much more racing to look at, so focusing on the flat exclusively will at least cut down your analysis.

It should be noted that early season form on the flat can be particularly variable, thus making it a difficult time for favourite backers. Mainly this can be attributed to the fact that there isn’t much recent form to go on. Fitness often has to be taken on trust, especially with those unraced since last season.

Racing statistics show that around 83% flat races are won by horses reappearing on the race course within 28 days of their previous race. Inform horses, from inform trainers are the ones that win races. Consequently a lot of early season horses won’t be fully racing fit; therefore the layers should be prepared to take advantage of this fact.

However like all rules of thumb there are exceptions and some horses can still win after an extended break although they are infrequent. Usually these types come from certain stables, whose trainers can get one ready first time out. These horses are generally better class animals with a decent pedigree.

To assesses and quantify performance patterns, look at horses last couple of runs from the previous season. The core aim is to identify whether or not a certain horse has performed well coming back from an extended break before? However this is only a quick starting point and in reality we can’t really judge performance patterns with any degree of accuracy until horses have had a few runs in the current season.

Change Over Time Again – Part Two
Change Over Time Again – Part Three
Change Over Time Again – Part Four

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