The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 14th Dec)
Last time around Alpha Des Obeaux (adv EW 16/1) fared the best of the two “Top Trainer” based selections in finishing 3rd in the Beecher Chase at Aintree.
This Saturday Cheltenham play host to the second day of the International meeting and the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 214, has plenty of content to hopefully guide the reader to some decent profits. The latest report also features ante-post selections for a good number of the top races that are due to be run over the Festive Period.
The Members Reports form an integral part of the comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club, which includes John Burkes Stat Pointers, daily selections from profitable micro systems and a guest slot each month from a Pro-Tipster Service (November’s delivered +16pts).
You can find out more including a special offer here – https://www.bettinginsiders.com/trial
Saturday’s feature Handicap was given the trends treatment in the new Members Report and here are the key stats that will hopefully help us hone on this year’s winner….
The Caspian Caviar Gold Cup – (Cheltenham Sat 1.55pm, 2m4½f H’cap Chase (Grade 3, Class 1)
There has only been one winning favourite since 1997 and that was Poquelin (7/2) in 2009. Despite the poor record of the favourite, 14 of the last 20 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting.
Again, the big yards dominate proceedings with Paul Nicholls saddling 5 winners and Nicky Henderson 3 since 2002. Of the two, Nicholls has the better recent form having trained 5 of the last 10 winners. Jonjo O’Neill has also struck twice in recent times as has Phillip Hobbs.
A top 3 finish LTO is a solid statistic and accounts for 16 of the last 20 winners. All bar 2 winners since 1997 achieved a top 5 finish on their previous start and those who finished outside the front 5, or failed to complete their last start, have had a really poor record since 1997. 2 to 4 runs in the current season looks ideal and accounts for 17 of the last 20 winners.
No horse older than 8yo has won this since 1997. In fact, all the winners in that time were aged 6yo to 8yo except for Frodon (The first time around) and Unioniste. Both were 4yo’s and both trained by Paul Nicholls.
A break of 20 days looks good and fits the bill for the last 15 winners. From a ratings point of view, 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 142+. 14 previous winners of this race had already tasted success in the current season and they have a much higher strike rate than those without one on the board and that seems a good trait to stick with this time around.
As we have seen before, course form is a big positive and 16 of the last 20 winners had either won or placed previously at Cheltenham and all bar one winner since 1997 last ran over fences.
All that gives us a winning profile of:
- Avoid the favourite
- Aged 6yo to 8yo
- 2 to 4 runs in the current season
- Top 6 in the betting
- Rated 142+
- Top 3 finish LTO
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill or Phillip Hobbs
- Won or placed at Cheltenham previously
- Already won a race in the current season
- Off the track for 20 days or longer
- Last ran over fences
We will be reviewing the runners of the Caspian to see which of them are the best fit for the “winners profile” and you can find out which one(s) we settle on by clicking here to read on:-
Sat 14th Dec
Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (1.55pm Chelt)
Having reviewed the key trends detailed above we reach the following conclusion:-
The one that pretty much ticks all of the boxes is Brelan D’As but he has been punted into 9/2 favourite. The record of the jolly in this race is not the best with the last one going in being Poquelin in 2009….trained by Paul Nicholls!
With that in mind we will reluctantly pass and go with the next best in the tick boxes with Cepage (Gen 13/2) and Secret Investor (13/2).
Together We Can Win in 2019 and beyond
Darren & Steve