The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 11th Jan)
The weather continues to have a bearing on the racing action with a number of meetings already having to be called off. Hopefully all will be well for Warwick’s card on Saturday which features the Grade 3 Classic Handicap Chase.
This Big Race was given the trends treatment for the brand new Insiders Club Members Report and hopefully the traits uncovered will help us narrow down the runners to a few with the “winners profile”.
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Classic Chase (Grade 3 handicap; 3m 5f); Warwick 3.00pm
A true slog if ever there was one, the Classic Chase is for real stayers especially when run on the usual soft or heavy ground (Current forecast is Soft).
Paul Nicholls has a decent record in this with 3 wins since 2006 although the last one was in 2015. Alan King won this in 2008 and 2011. Look out for what they run this time around as well as the likes of Kerry Lee, Venetia Williams and Lucinda Russell who are adept at training staying chasers.
4 of the last 10 renewals have been on heavy ground, with a further 4 run on soft ground so also look for a horse with form under testing conditions. 14 of the past 17 winners carried 11-02 or less so in the testing conditions a lighter weight can be an advantage.
Horses rated higher than 137 have won just 3 renewals since 2000 so consider those rated under 138. 2 or 3 runs in the current season also looks a positive attribute accounting for 13 of the last 17 winners. This is a real slog so no surprise to see that all bar 1 of the previous winners had won a race over at least 3 miles and all bar 2 winners had raced over 3m 2f or further.
Horses with Grand National experience have won 3 times and horses with race experience over 4 miles or further have won 10 times. A run in a “National” of some description looks a plus.
Favourites (including joint and co-favourites) are 1-18 so they are worth taking on as winners have come from all over the betting market including 10th, 11th and 12th. That gives the race a wide-open feel and it has produced its fair share of double-figure priced winners, the biggest being Russe Blance in 2016 at an SP of 20/1.
Older horses do well with 15 of the last 17 winners aged 8yo or older. In fact, the 8yo+ brigade have won 11 of the last 12 renewals. The last 15 winners had all raced in the last 42 days and those with a win under their belts in the current season have a decent strike rate.
Putting all that together gives us the following pointers:
- Aged 8yo or older
- Carrying 11-01 or less on soft or heavy ground
- Rated under 138
- 2 or 3 runs in the current season
- Won over 3 miles or further
- Raced over 4 miles or further or competed in one of the Nationals
- A win in the current season
- Had a run in the last 42 days
We will be reviewing the runners on the day of the race with regard to the aforementioned pointers and you can find out the final selection(s) below.
Sat 11th Jan
Plenty in with chances as you would expect for a race of this nature. A couple tick plenty of boxes and are at prices/terms that allow for EW staking.
Bobo Mac – 9/1 EW Gen (1/5, 4pl) – Has taken form to a new level in the 2 starts this season and may have more to offer if coping with the step up in trip.
Petite Power – 11/1 EW (1/5,4pl) – Another that is showing an upward curve despite age and conditions should suit
Together we can win in 2020!
Darren & Steve