This weekends big race is the Group 1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown (3.10 pm). Steeped in history and the likely turn out for such a prestigious prize (£283,850 Winner) is a dissapointingly small field, with only 6 runners due to go to post. We asked one of our resident authors, Ben Aitken, to apply his Dosage Method to the small but never the less select field.
A Grade 1 run over a distance of 1m2f, it is here that we often see horses that have competed in the Guineas and Derby stepping up to take on their elders for the first time. The race is named after the undefeated 18th century champion Eclipse who is estimated to be in the bloodlines of around 80 – 90% of modern thoroughbred racehorses. Indeed the winners of this race live up to their “ancestors” high standards and read like a who’s who of thoroughbred greats; Champions such as Sea The Stars, Hawk Wing, Giant’s Causeway, Nashwan, Dancing Brave, Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef all appear on the roll of honour. But what Dosage attributes are required to tackle and win this prestigious prize?
Here are the Dosage trends for the Coral Eclipse, gathered from the past 15 renewals of this 1m2f Group 1 race –
DP – 15/15 had 10 points or more in their Dosage Profile
12/15 had 20 points or more in their Dosage Profile
DI – 12/15 had a DI of 1.05 and above
11/15 had a DI of 1.24 and above
9/15 had a DI of 1.82 and above
CD – 12/15 had a CD of 0.11 and above
11/15 had a CD of 0.25 and above
9/15 had a CD of 0.39 and above
Dosage points angle
(PATB) = 0 / (20+) = 7 / (DQ) = 3
Listed below are Saturday’s runners with their Dosage figures and running styles included (the field has been sorted from highest to lowest CD rating) –
|2||1||Dar Re Mi||3-0-17-7-1||20+||28||0.70||-0.11||CP/HU|
For a race of this quality you would really expect a higher number of runners and with no obvious front runner this could easily become tactical, however, we can only work with what we have and it’s now onto ‘Narrowing the Field’.
Viscount Nelson fits in at the lower end of the trends but to me this would be a big step up on what he has so far achieved.
Dar Re Mi has a bit to overcome with regards to the Dosage figures and despite winning the Pretty Polly stakes over 10f last season she does look more at home over 12f. She is, however, a very high class animal and she is not passed over easily.
Sri Putra also has plenty to overcome on the Dosage trends and steps into G1 company for only the 3rd time; on the other 2 starts he was well beaten and I can see the same happening here.
The 2 runners with the strongest Dosage credentials are Mawatheeq & Zacinto closely followed by Twice Over; and these are the 3 we should be concentrating on and where I expect the winner to come from.
Mawathwwq & Twice Over both also hold strong Dosage and trends credentials but my one concern over them is if the race turns tactical as they both seem best coming off a strong pace.
Zacinto is of definite interest stepping up in trip and Sir Michael Stoute would not continue to run him in Group 1’s if he did not think the horse was capable. At a generally available 9/2 could be the value in a tricky race.