The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 23rd March)
Cheltenham is over for another year and it proved to one of the more difficult ones to navigate through from a punting perspective. Hopefully a number of you fared well and backed some of those big priced winners.
Last time around we featured the key trends for the Midlands Grand National and of Nick Hardman’s final selections Prime Venture (adv 25/1 e/w) fared best in finishing in 4th to land decent place spoils. For the coming weekend Newbury play host to a decent two day fixture and on Saturday the racing includes the EBF Mare’s Novice Hurdle Final. This was the race covered by Nick for the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 176, and below are the top line trends to help us narrow the field:-
EBF Mare’s Novice Hurdle Final (2m 4½f; Grade 2 Handicap hurdle) – Newbury 3.15pm
Newbury host their Spring Jumps meeting and the one race that catches my eye is the 2m 4½f, Grade 2 handicap hurdle for mares only. It is highly competitive stuff and a decent field go to post at around 16 runners.
As you would expect for a novice hurdle, all the winners since 1997 have been aged between 5yo and 7yo. However, 17 of the 19 winners were either 5yo or 6yo so that is where we will start.
Nicky Henderson (She Might Bite) has won this race four times since 2007, Oliver Sherwood (Millarville) twice and Charlie Longsdon twice since 1997 so their runners are worth noting.
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 120 to 130 and 15 of the last 16 had been given a break of 21 to 44 days. There are no real trends in terms of the weight carried by previous winners. The last 4 all carried 10-13 or more but the six winners prior to this carried under 10-13.
Those three statistics alone should go some way to whittling the field down to a manageable number of runners. 17 of the 19 winners of this race posted a top 5 finish last time out.
All bar two winners since the race was first run in 2000 came from the top 10 in the betting and that would see us lose a few runners off the shortlist. All bar two winners in that time has run between 3 and 7 times in the current season and most of the winners had run over at least 2m 4f previously and all bar two had won 3 races or less in their careers. More importantly, 15 of the winners of this race had won either 1 or 2 hurdle races previously. A win in the current season is another positive note and those without a win are just 3-59.
Putting all that together gives us a winning profile of:
- Aged 5yo or 6yo
- Off the track for 21 to 44 days
- Rated 120 to 130
- Trained by Nicky Henderson, Oliver Sherwood or Charlie Longsdon
- Top 5 finish last time out
- Top 10 in the betting
- 3 to 7 runs in the current season
- Raced over at least 2m 4f previously
- Won 1 or 2 previous hurdle races
- Won a race in the current season
- No more than 3 career wins
Sat 23rd March
Our Dot’s Baby @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)
A Little Chaos @28/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve