The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 23rd Feb’18)
Last weekend we shared Nick Hardman’s key trends and final selections for the Grand National Trial at Haydock and these proved to be fruitful with Robinsfirth doing the business at 8/1 (the other selection, Impulsive Star, was a non-runner).
In the brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 172) Nick focusses on a duo of top class races due to be run on Saturday and below we share a summary of one of them, the Eider Chase at Newcastle.
Vertem Eider Chase (4m ½f; Handicap) – Newcastle 2.40pm
Quite possibly the most gruelling race in the national hunt calendar, the Eider Chase is the most extreme stamina test. It is such a test that if you can find one that finishes the race, you will probably be in the money. On testing ground (currently GD-ST, Soft in places) it is even harder for the runners, with just 3 completions in 2011 and 5 in 2009.
Intriguingly, unlike the Grand National, horses carrying a low weight have not fared that well in this race. Since 1997, horses carrying under 11st have won just 5 times compared to those shouldering 11st or more who have won 13 times (race was abandoned in 4 years). Based on those stats we should be looking at something carrying 11st or more.
This race has also favoured the older runners in recent times with 10 of the last 12 winners begin in the 9yo to 11yo bracket.
We have had one big priced winner in recent years (Tyneandthyneagain at 28/1 in 2004), but that one aside, all the other winners went in at 18/1 or shorter. No surprise then to find out that the winner came from the front 6 in the betting in no fewer than 15 of the 18 renewals since 1997.
All winners in that time had raced in the last 2 months (63 days to be precise), so a long layoff is not a good thing. One thing in our favour from a trends point of view is that all bar 3 winners could be found within the OR ratings band of 125 to 139 and 7 of the last 8 winners were rated under 135.
Between 2 and 5 runs in the current season looks ideal (14 of the last 18 winners).
A race over at least 3m 4f (12 of the last 18 winners) and a win over at least 3m 1f (16 of the last 18 winners) both appear to be positive stats.
Previous course form counts for precious little (15 winners were winning at Newcastle for the first time), but again we find a win that season counts for a lot.
Between 1 and 4 chase wins looks good (17/18) as does a win in a handicap chase (13/17).
Finally, 14/18 had run between 2 and 5 times in the current season. Putting all that together gives us a winning profile of:
• Carrying 11-0 or more
• Top 6 in the betting
• Aged 9yo to 11yo
• Rated 125 – 139
• Raced in the last 63 days
• 2 to 5 runs in the current season
• Raced over at least 3m 4f previously
• Won over 3m 1f or further
• A win in the current season
• Between 1 and 4 career chase wins
• Won a handicap chase
You can get your hands on the latest Weekly Members Report, which alongside Nick’s Big Race Trends there is a very detailed review of the Cheltenham Festival by Josh “Racing to Profit” Wright, here.
The Weekly Members Reports form part of the 3 pronged comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club which also includes a friendly forum and of course Nick Hardman’s profitable Big Race Tips. You can find out all about it here.
One from the Insiders Report and no one horse qualifies on all the trends but Vicente certainly ticks more than most. I am keen on his chances as he stays, is back on his last winning mark and the better ground will suit him more than the host of mudlarks in the field. I will make him my NAP for the big race. I also think Raz De Maree is a big price back on the mark he won the Welsh Grand National and he plodded on for 5th in the race again this year. This race is longer so he may plod into some place money. Fellow Irish Raider Kilkishen could go well if getting the trip
Vicente (Was 6/1) now 5/1 (NAP 4pt win)
Kilkishen @12/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 7 places, WH)
Raz De Maree @33/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve