The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 22nd Feb)
In some respects the weather has paused its relentless downpour and we have been able to enjoy some decent racing in recent days, but of course no consolation to those poor folks whose homes have been flooded in numerous parts of the UK.
With the Cheltenham Festival looming ever closer the brand new Insiders Club Members Report has an update on a monster Yankee compiled by the one and only Gary Boswell of Betlesswinmore fame! If this one comes off the bookies will need more than umbrellas to hide from the deluge of customers clambering for their winnings!
Alongside the aforementioned the latest Report also hones in on the “winners profile” of the close to two decades of Eider Chase victors. Using this approach in recent months has helped us land some decent returns from what are often particularly difficult races to fathom. Hopefully the traits detailed below will prove to be useful once again:-
The Members Reports are published weekly and form an integral part of the comprehensive package on offer at the Betting Insiders Club. If your current punting isn’t achieving the levels that you had hoped for then now is the perfect time to make a change for the better and find out more about the Insiders Club including a special offer – Click Here
Vertem Eider Chase (Class 2, 4m 1½f; Handicap chase) – Newcastle 2.45pm
Quite possibly the most gruelling race in the National Hunt racing calendar, the Eider Chase was established in 1952 and features 26 fences over 4 miles and 1½ furlongs.
It is such a test that if you can find one that finishes the race, you will probably be in the money. On testing ground, soft is the current forecast, it is even harder for the runners, with just 3 completions in 2011 and 5 in 2009.
Intriguingly, unlike the Grand National, horses carrying a low weight have not fared that well in this race.
Since 1997, horses carrying under 11st have won just 6 times compared to those shouldering 11st or more who have won 13 times (race was abandoned in 4 years). Based on those stats we should be considering carefully those towards the top end of the weights.
This race has also favoured the more experienced/older runners in recent times with 11 of the last 13 winners being between the 9 and 11yo bracket.
We have had one big priced winner in recent years (Tyneandthyneagain at 28/1 in 2004), but that one aside, all the other winners went in at 18/1 or shorter, whilst last year Crosspark went off at 12/1.
No surprise then to find out that the winner came from the front 6 in the betting in no fewer than 16 of the 19 renewals since 1997.
All winners in that time had raced in the last 2 months (63 days to be precise), so a long layoff is not a good thing. One thing in our favour from a trends point of view is that all bar 3 winners could be found within the OR ratings band of 125 to 139 and 8 of the last 9 winners were rated 135 or less.
Those that had run between 2 and 5 runs in the current season have a decent profile and would have found 15 of the last 19 winners.
A race over at least 3m 4f (13 of the last 19 winners) and a win over at least 3m 1f (17 of the last 19 winners) both appear to be positive traits.
Previous course form doesn’t seem to have much bearing (16 winners were winning at Newcastle for the first time), but a win in the current season does count for a lot.
Between 1 and 4 chase wins looks good (18/19) as does a win in a handicap chase (14/18) combined with a top 4 finish on their last time out run.
Putting all that together gives us a winning profile of:
- Carrying 10-13 or more
- Top 6 in the betting
- Aged 9yo to 11yo
- Rated 125 – 139
- Raced in the last 63 days
- 2 to 5 runs in the current season
- Raced over at least 3m 4f previously
- Won over 3m 1f or further
- A win in the current season
- Between 1 and 4 career chase wins
- Won a handicap chase
- Top 4 finish LTO
We will be reviewing the runners’ early doors raceday with regard to the above key trends and you can find out the final selection(s) below.
Sat 22nd Feb
Unfortunately the meeting at Newcastle has been called off due to waterlogging. We do however have some pointers for the racing going ahead from the Insiders Club “Stat Pointers” guru John Burke….
1:15 – Paul Nicholls is 6 winners from 10 runners 60% +2.93 with his runners in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase in the past 10-years. He saddles Master Tommytucker & Southfield Stone in this year’s race.
Master Tommytucker a winner here over 2m 2f in November. Was still in contention when falling at the 15th in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase when stepped up to 3m here on Boxing Day. Lightly raced for his age, the 9-year-old’s form figures now read 11F1F. If he stands up, he’s the most likely winner.
Master Tommytucker – 5/2 @ Bet365
2:25 – Alan King’s record in the Kingwell Hurdle (normally run at Wincanton) in the past 11 years is 4 winners from 9 runners +3.08 5 placed 56%.
He saddles Elgin who returns for the first time since July 2018 and is having his first run over hurdles since finishing 5th of 11 in that year’s Champion Hurdle. The 8-year-old won this race two years ago and trainer Alan King has aimed him at this race all season so he shouldn’t lack for fitness today.
4:02 – Willie Mullins has won seven of the last ten runnings of the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase – 7 winners from 12 runners 58% +8.78 10 placed 83%.
He saddles four of the six runners in this year’s renewal. Bellshill won this race two years ago and his form figures on heavy ground are 11115 and 12111 when returning within 16 to 30-days since his last run.
Bellshill – 11/4 @ Bet365
Together we can win in 2020!
Darren & Steve
P.S. If you have the skill to select winners consistently and think you have what it takes to become a horse racing or sports tipster then this page is for you – http://www.betting-school.com/become-a-horse-racing-tipster/