The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 12th Jan’18)
There is some decent equine action on Saturday with Warwick’s feature race being the Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3/Class 1) whilst over at Kempton the 7 races include the Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed/Class 1). Both of these prestigious events were given the Nick Hardman Key Trends treatment for the brand new weekly Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 166) and you can find a summary of the Classic trends a little later.
Alongside these the racing coverage continues in the Members Report with Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post bets from David Massey’s look ahead to the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup. The hot off the press report wraps up with “Our Man in Spain’s” expert review arguably the best football league in the World, La Liga, and our resident Arb Guru shows how Asian Handicaps can be used to produce risk free profits.
The weekly Members Report forms an integral part of the comprehensive Insiders Club package so if the previous 12 months have not delivered the level of returns that your punting exploits had aspired to then why not make a change for the better and check out how the Insiders Club can help 2019 be more profitable. You can find all about it here.
Classic Chase Warwick 3.00pm Sat 12th Jan
A true slog at 3 miles 5 furlongs if ever there was one, the Classic Chase is for real stayers especially when run testing ground although this time around it may be quicker than in previous years. Paul Nicholls (Ibis Du Rheu) has a decent record with 3 wins since 2006.
13 of the past 16 winners carried 11-02 or less so I will be looking for those racing under this weight. Horses rated higher than 137 have won just 3 renewals since 2000 so look for something rated under 138. 2 or 3 runs in the current season looks perfect and accounts for 13 of the last 16 winners. This is a real slog so no surprise to see that all bar 1 of the previous winners had won a race over at least 3 miles and all bar 2 winners had raced over 3m 2f or further.
Horses with Grand National experience have won 3 times and horses with race experience over 4 miles or further have won 9 times. A run in a “National” of some description looks a plus.
Favourites (including joint and co-favourites) are 1-17 so they are worth taking on as winners have come from all over the betting market including 10th, 11th and 12th. That gives the race a wide-open feel and it has produced its fair share of double-figure priced winners, the biggest being Russe Blance in 2016 at an SP of 20/1. Older horses do well with 14 of the last 16 winners aged 8yo or older. In fact, the 8yo+ brigade have won 10 of the last 11 renewals. The last 14 winners had all raced in the last 42 days and those with a win under their belts in the current season have a decent strike rate. Putting all that together gives us the following profile:
• Aged 8yo or older
• Carrying 11-01 or less
• Rated under 138
• 2 or 3 runs in the current season
• Won over 3 miles or further
• Raced over 4 miles or further or competed in one of the Nationals
• A win in the current season
• Had a run in the last 42 days
Saturday 12th Jan
One from the Insiders Report and Star Of Lanka ticks all the boxes apart from being a few lbs below the typical rating of past winners. Doux Pretender also ticks plenty of boxes as does the progressive Cotswold Way.
Cotswold Way @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, WH)
Doux Pretender @7/1
Star Of Lanka @12/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 6 places, WH)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve