The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 14th May)
Last weekend’s free tips were unable to add to the tally of profits but the micro-method involving William Haggas is one that should pay its way over the coming months.
You may recall us mentioning how successful our “Big Race” guru Nick Hardman has been with in excess of 260pts profit in 2016 so far and this followed a cracking 2015 where over 400pts was banked. (Free tips from Nick below…)
However this remarkable performance has come with some woe for Nick’s followers as a number of the Insiders Club members have had their bookmakers accounts restricted as a result. Some may consider it a great badge of achievement but it can cause potential issues going forward.
With that in mind we turned to our Arbitrage Expert Mark Jenkins who encounters account restrictions on an almost daily basis. Mark has been creaming thousands of pounds off the bookies for well over a decade and during this time he has acquired a lot of knowledge and experience on the subject of keeping sufficient bookmaker accounts open to carry on taking them for a ride. In the brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 133) Mark has passed on a “hotlist” of 8 pieces of advice that if applied will help in the on-going battle with the “old-enemy”.
Now of course if you are not one of the lucky ones that have access to Nick’s profitable “Big Race” selections you may not have any problem with bookmaker’s restrictions so maybe you should watch the interesting video of how Nick keeps those big race winners flowing!
For those of you that have encountered problems with your betting accounts click here to read on and grab some of Mark’s techniques for prolonging the life of your bookmaker’s accounts and of course some value priced free tips for the coming weekend!
Arbitrage – The Inside Track (by Mark Jenkins)
I mentioned briefly last month that I had heard of some members getting their accounts restricted for following the advice of the tipsters particularly Nick Hardman, whom I understand has been particularly successful. Without dwelling too long on the mentality of the common bookmaker, who it seems is only interested in loss making accounts; the Editor has asked me to give some tips that may help members avoid restrictions. The bad news is that arbitrage traders, many of whom are vastly more intelligent than yours truly, have all tried to avoid restrictions, but all get restricted in the end. And although arbitrage is not the same as regular punting, I must say that I am not surprised that regular punters face similar problems. Show the bookmaker that you have an edge and he closes (restricts) your account. Having said that, there are ways of prolonging the life of those precious accounts.
Usually the first indication of a restricted account comes when, having logged in you go to back your chosen selection, and the bet doesn’t get accepted, or, a small icon of text informs you that the maximum bet is 50p or some equally small amount, making placing your bet pretty pointless. Hovering the cursor over the betslip often shows the maximum bet allowed. Always remember to check your account history after placing a bet, to make sure that the bet is on, I can speak from bitter experience, having searched for a bet after the event only to find the account got restricted and the bet wasn’t actually placed. Long gone are the days when the bookmaker used to send a letter, as people like me used to keep them to show how clever we are….Lol. Reading the members forum, it appears that the biggest problem is that the early price is usually bigger than the SP. This leads to labelling as a sharp punter and the inevitable account restrictions. It is difficult to avoid as a horse that is heavily tipped is bound to shorten. Those first in would then be in a position to lay the selection back for a guaranteed profit. The bookmakers won’t like that. So what can be done about avoiding account restrictions?
1) Avoid withdrawals – As I said, continually betting “steam” will eventually result in a restricted account, and I can see no easy solution. Obviously, long term, betting the bookmakers “value” or loose lines, will eventually mean that you will make money from them. As a rule, (but sometimes before) whenever you withdraw from your account, the bookmaker will take a look at your activities, a trader could possibly decide that their business will be more profitable without you. Although I have heard that keeping withdrawal amounts low can also help. Logically, withdrawing £10,000 is much more likely to attract unwanted attention than £100. If you are a “big hitter” keep your bets well below the maximum allowed. Another option is “arbing out”. Find something that you can bet at the bookmaker, and then lay at similar odds on the exchanges. Look at a golf or a tennis outright and odds of around 20/1, smaller odds and the cost will be too great, larger odds and you will be tying up too much money. You will, unless you are very lucky lose a small amount, and if you are very unlucky and the bet wins (oooh the irony), you will still be faced with a withdrawal, only this time a larger amount, and that will certainly increase the risk of a restriction being placed on your account, but it’s sometimes a risk worth taking.
2) Have more than one account with the online books – It makes perfect sense to take the best available odds, but most bookmakers will be acutely aware of when they have the biggest price on the High Street (and/or internet). So open up at other bookies, and if you can bear it, don’t always take the “industry best price”, as this is going to get you flagged as a “sharp”. Sometimes taking a slightly lower price can be a better option. Or maybe looking for a “BOG” offer can be something else to consider. Opening an account, turning over the bonus, and then leaving it dormant for a lengthy period can also help to stay under the radar, as most bookies seem to have periodic purges. There are plenty of bookies out there, but do your homework first; www.bookmakersreview.com and www.sportsbookreview.com both have ratings and a forum where you can check out potential new bookmakers. Don’t go sending your money to Gangsters in some far flung unregulated corner of the Globe. You will also need to make yourself aware of bookmakers having “connections” with one another, William Hill and Sean Graham for example, Betfred and Totesport is another. Opening at both can be a solution, as they normally have similar, if not the same, odds, but, you normally find that when you lose one “linked” account then you will lose the other. Opening those new accounts at peak times can help too, just before the Cheltenham Festival for example, would indicate to their marketing department that their campaigns have been successful, rather than a “sharp punter” just opening up and slapping £100s on a horse where they have the best odds at some other random time.
3) Mix things up – If you are regularly putting £10 on the nags then use that account for your regular Saturday bet on your fav footy team, or offer to put your Grandads 10 team acca on for him. Some bookies may consider long term that you could be profitable for them if they can make money from other angles. Some bookies actually restrict by sport, so whilst they will take pennies on the horses, they may well take a large bet on something else. You could also consider splitting your bet between several books to keep stakes down. It is widely accepted that £100 is a large bet. I read somewhere that the avg bet is around £5, so bear that in mind, if you are planning to “lump on”. Playing poker or roulette in their Casino can sometimes help to keep an account unrestricted too, but I wouldn’t recommend trying to actually profit from either method on a regular basis. Hang on to your profits.
In the original article Mark describes a further 5 clever techniques that can help with the on-going battle with the bookmaker’s and you can get your hands on those wise words and a whole lot more here (http://bettinginsiders.com).
Now over to the free selections for the coming weekend:-
Sat 14th May
Beautiful Morning’s fifth in the Group 1 Fillies Mile is the best form on offer (a race won by Minding) and she has a host of entries at Group 1 level including the Oaks and Coronation Stakes. Luca Cumani has won this race before and the winner went on to finish third in the Oaks so everything points to Beautiful Morning having a similar profile. If that is the case then she needs to be winning this if she is to justify those type of entries.
Beautiful Morning @3/1 Gen
Silver Bid is a 4yo maiden which means he has been giving lumps of weight away in his races to date and goes handicapping off bottom weight here. His last run behind Paddy Power can be marked up as that one ran a cracker at the Dante meeting, just going down 1 1/2 lengths in a class 3 handicap. Another interesting one is Free To Love who’s best efforts have all come on decent ground at around 5 and 5 1/2 furlongs.
Silver Bid @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, Gen)
Free To Love @11/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3 places, BetV/Hills)
All that remains is to wish you a great weekend from the Betting Insiders team!
Together We Can Win
Darren & Steve