The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 2nd March)
Last weekend the free tips for the Eider Chase had to settle for a placer in the shape of Kilkishen who finished an honourable 4th at 16/1 after being prominent for a long way before getting slightly outpaced from 2 out.
The Cheltenham Festival is looming large and the brand new Insiders Club Members Report (Issue 173) whets the appetite of the reader with a comprehensive review of the key trends for the big handicap races due to be run over the 4 days at Prestbury Park. Alongside this we have Gary “the Boz” Festival Yankee which has been compiled in his own unique style.
The Weekly Members Reports form part of the 3 pronged comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club which also includes a friendly forum and of course Nick Hardman’s profitable Big Race Tips. You can find out all about it here.
Prior to the Festival there is still plenty of decent action to enjoy and on Saturday Newbury play host to the Greatwood Charity Raceday and Nick has cast his eye of the past winners of the Greatwood Gold Cup and will be using these to hone in on the main protagonists for this year’s renewal.
Greatwood Gold Cup Chase (Newbury 2.40pm Sat 2nd March)
First run in 2004, this race has been absolutely farmed by Paul Nicholls with 8 wins since 2006 alone. Given the form of the stable, anything he runs this year has to be high on the shortlist. It normally goes to a younger chaser with no fewer than 13 of the 15 winners coming from the 6yo to 8yo bracket. The last 8 winners had all been off the track for 21 days and that looks like another good starting point.
The weights and OR of previous winners are a real mixed bag so no point trying to squeeze an angle or two out of them. Last time out winners are just 1-34 so I will be giving those the swerve but 10 of the other 14 winners finished 2nd to 5th so a decent recent run is not a negative but penalized last time out winners or those hit with a rise in the weights look opposable.
However, 12 of the last 15 winners had managed to finish first or second on one of their last 3 runs. Favourites have a good record (5-16) and only 3 winners have come from outside the top 7 in the betting. Those with a win at the distance have 3 times the win strike rate as those that haven’t and 2 to 5 runs in the current season looks a good fit (12/15).
All bar 2 winners had raced over 2m 5f or further and a previous win at the track is a bonus. 12/15 had won between 1 and 4 previous chases and 13/15 last ran in a class 1 or 2 race. All 15 previous winners last ran in a chase with 11/15 last competing in a handicap chase.
All that gives us a fairly solid profile:
- Top 7 in the betting (favourites have a good record)
- Finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th LTO
- Won of finished 2nd on one of last three starts
- Off the track for 21 days or longer
- Aged 6yo to 8yo
- Previous win at the distance
- 2 to 5 runs in the current campaign
- Previous win at the track
- 1 to 4 previous chase wins
- Last ran in a class 1 or 2 chase
- Raced over 2m 4f or further
- Rated 124 to 135
Sat 2nd March
Another from the Insiders Report and the one that ticks most boxes is Nightfly. Warrior’s Tale is also worth backing if putting a line through his Doncaster flop and he has some good previous course form.
Nightfly 20/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP/BFsb)
Warrior’s Tale 16/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 5 places, PP/BFsb)
Together We Can Win in 2019
Darren & Steve