Ok, so yesterday we shared a specific micro system that you can use
to find horse racing selections for further analysis or to bet blind.
And, no I havent forgot that I’m going to tell you how to improve
the profit from that one.
I didn’t see a comment that got it right and I guess it’s a case
of things seem obvious when you know them.
National Hunt racing now runs all year around these days but for
various reasons (hard ground, tradition, prize money) the best horses
are saved for the main season.
In Mr Twiston-Davies’ case the stats show that he uses this strategy
mostly at the beginning of the main season and the tail of the summer
If you use it between August and January you can double the profits
over the 5 years analysed.
Obviously you cut down the number of bets, but we are left with the
So now you have one method that you can use on horse racing.
To make worthwhile profits you will need more of the same
and we have much more where that came from 🙂
But it also pays to take in other betting events.
Today I have the results of some research that you could use as a
system on it’s own but will probably better serve you if you just
use it to help you make betting decisions or to find new betting
Today the research comes from one of our football experts, Matthew
Walton, who specialises in deep routed research on the top European
The output of this often provides the opportunity to develop a
profitable Micro Method which can target a specific market from the
hundreds that are now available to punt on.
As far as football is concerned the vast majority of the money
wagered is on the outright match win market before the off.
As such it can be a difficult to find a long term profitable
edge by betting before the kick off.
But in play is a different matter.
The in play markets better represent the actual punters assessment
of things as opposed to the result of bookmakers research.
What follows is a small part of a detailed article that Matthew
wrote for Decembers Insiders Report…
Why Second Half comebacks don’t happen
How many matches do you think there are where the eventual
90-minute result is changed after the interval e.g. a team that was
winning at half-time end up losing at full-time or a match which
was all-square at the break finishes in favour of one side over
It would be natural to assume, would it not, that there is quite a
lot of change after the break.
The manager will have had time to assess the opposition tactics and
to share some strategies with his team. And a team facing the
prospect of a loss may regroup and come out with renewed vigour and
Would it therefore surprise you to learn that last season in the
Premier League, of the 114 matches where a team was winning after
45 minutes, no fewer than 75% of them went on to win the match.
Maybe this was just one of those strange patterns that can occur
from time to time? Well the results were 78% in 2009/10 and 76% in
The lower English divisions showed a similar if slightly lower
results set hovering around the 73-74% level, so what about
evidence from further afield?
Let’s take Spain’s La Liga in 2010/11… the figure was 75%.
How about looking at the German Bundesliga? In 2009/10, the data
returned another 75% reading.
And finally in 2008/09, why not consider Serie A in Italy. These
random stats were similarly solid at 75%.
On this evidence there seems little point for managers to deliver
motivational half-time team talks!
For players to drastically re-think their second half game plan and
for punters to feverishly search the markets in order to come up
with some sort of ‘Plan B’.
As shown from the above, the full-time result, more often than not,
is staring them straight in the face.
And that’s the next bet… right there; simply back the team that is
leading at half-time to win the match in the in-play markets.
What’s more, many’s the time you’ll find the price on offer for the
winning side, particularly if they were the pre-match underdog, to
still be more than generous.
The 75% strike rate would suggest sides who are leading at
half-time should be around [1.31] to win.
Now many will be shorter than this… but many will also be bigger!
If you are a football trader or you use one of the football trading
methods this knowledge could enhance your profits.
The bottom line is that you only need a few of these key stats to
keep you in profitable bets.
Tomorrow we are at the dogs with a variation on a method that
I used back in the 90’s.
Together we can win
Darren & Steve
PS if you have any comments please do leave them on the website
very interesting enjoyed your article.
is the 75% just wins or win and draw
I don’t see that the football stat is particularly useful. If the average odds are 1.31, that gives an implied probability (the percentage you need to win to break even) of 1/1.31 = 76.3%. The chance of it actually happening has to be larger than that to make money. Admittedly, the figure of 78% for the Premier League is larger than that, but you could only make money if your exchange commission was very very low. Perhaps this stat could be used to aid selection in some way, but as a system in itself, the stats predict that you would lose money.
What Matthew is saying is that the average odds should be around 1.31 and that if they are higher then you should consider a back bet.
Ah, I see. Apologies for my misunderstanding.
I left a comment yesterday highlighting this method to use. when you asked about the chelsea vs swansea game. i have used this method for a long time and its great that you highlighted it as pro Sports Bettors. i know i am on the right track! How long have you been using it for?