The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 30th Nov)
Last time around we shared a couple of selections based around the Trainer Form stats that were published in the Insiders Club Members Report and pleasingly we managed to land a juicy winner from them.
Know The Score wasn’t able to justify market support (7/2-13/8) up at Haydock but it was a different outcome with Coillte Eile in the Mares Hurdle at Ascot.
The Dr Newland trained 6yo Mare had run poorly when last seen with no obvious reason for the showing. However she proved that run wasn’t her true level by staying on well to win at 10/1.
This weekend Newbury play host to the Ladbroke Winter Carnival and Saturday’s big handicap chase, the Ladbroke Trophy, is featured in the brand new Insiders Club Members Report, Issue 212.
The Members Reports form an integral part of the comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club, you can find out more including a special offer here – Betting Insiders Club
Ladbroke Trophy (3.00pm Newbury Sat 30th Nov) – Key Trends
Considered to be the second biggest Handicap Chase of the season after the Grand National, the past winners features a role of honour that includes the great Denman, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth, and the late Grand National hero Many Clouds.
Horses aged 6yo to 8yo have provided us with 19 of the last 22 winners and that looks a good place to start. 11 of the last 14 winners carried 11st or more and that shift to the classier type is reflected in the official ratings of the winners. Between 1998 and 2004 all the winners were rated less than 150. Since 2005, there have been 9 winners rated 150+ and the last 14 winners were rated 145+ (compared to just 2 between 1998 and 2004).
13 of the last 14 winners either took this on seasonal reappearance or had been given a break of 26 days or longer. 19/22 had run 0 or 1 time in the current season, and the race has been good to favourite backers with 8 winning jollies since 1997 and in total 12 of the last 22 winners came from the top 2 in the market. With the third and fourth favourites combining for another 3 wins, it may pay to concentrate on the top 4 or 5 in the betting market.
A win over a minimum distance of 3m looks a prerequisite and fits the profile of 20 of the last 22 winners, whilst previous winning or placed course form is a positive, and a win at Class 1 or 2 levels is also a good pointer. We want at least 2 chase wins and interestingly 19/22 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chases previously.
A summary of the “Winners profile” is as follows:
- Aged 6yo to 8yo
- Rated 150+
- Carrying 11st or more
- Top 5 in the betting
- Seasonal debut or a maximum of one run in the current season
- Winning form over 3m or further
- Previous winning or placed course form
- 0 or 1 previous handicap chase win
- 2 or more career chase wins
- Previous winning form at Class 1 or 2 level
Once the line-ups for Saturday’s key handicap races at Ascot are confirmed we will be applying the “winners’ profile” to the Ladbroke Trophy alongside the profitable trainers highlighted in the latest Members Report, and we will be sharing a selection or two from the top class meeting at Newbury.
You can find details of these by clicking here to read on:-
Sat 30th Nov
Having considered the key stats there are a couple that seem the best fit.
Mister Malarky – 9/1 EW (1/5, 5pl Gen)
Elegant Escape – 11/1 EW (1/5, 5pl, 6pl PP/BFsb)
Together We Can Win in 2019 and beyond
Darren & Steve