London Gold Cup Handicap – Top trends and free tip

The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 18th May)

There was no joy from last weekend’s Victoria Cup selections but given the average prices we have to expect a few losers amongst the winning ones.

On Saturday Newbury play host to the next race in the QIPCO British Champions Series, the Lockinge Stakes, which was covered by Alex Peperell in a recent members report. Preceding that Group 1 event is the London Gold Cup Handicap and Nick Hardman has dissected the key trends and stats of the past winners for the brand new Members Report.

Issue 184 also includes the first instalment of the Racing to Profit 2019 Trainer Track Profiles which digs deep into the recent records of 5 Flat venues. The resultant findings really can help sort the wheat from the chaff as well as providing a number of suggested micro methods to consider during the rest of the season.

The brand new Members Report completes this time around with Gary “the Boz” preview of the Women’s French Open Tennis which is due to get underway at Roland-Garros on the 26th May. He makes a solid case for taking on one of the current outright favourites and offers a number of bigger priced players as viable alternatives.

The weekly Members Reports form an integral part of the 3-pronged comprehensive package available from the Insiders Club which can improve your punting enjoyment and more importantly your profits.

Now over to Nick for those key stats for one of Saturday’s big races:-

London Gold Cup Handicap – Sat 18th Newbury 3.00pm

A new race for us this year and there is plenty of data to get stuck into.

Of the last 14 winners we have quite a narrow band on official ratings. 12 of those last 14 winners were rate 83 to 90 and that is a good place to start. Since 1997 only 4 winners had taken this on their seasonal debut and the other 18 winners had all had a spin in the last 40 days. In fact, 1 or 2 runs in the current season looks ideal and fits the bill for 16 of the previous winners.

Sir Michael Stoute has won this race 3 times since 1998, Roger Charlton saddled back to back winners in 2015 and 2016 and won it 2011 and Mark Johnston has also won the race 3 times.  Look out for their runners again this time around.

A good last time out effort looks a strong stat and 19 of the last 22 winners posted a top 3 finish on their previous start. A win at the distance ticks the box for 9 previous winners at a strike rate of 24% compared to the 13 winners without a win at the distance who have a 7% strike rate.

All bar 3 winners since 1997 had raced over 1m 2f or further so avoid those stepping up to tackle their furthest trip to date. 

20 of the last 22 winners had raced between 2 and 5 times in their career and that looks important (race is for 3yo runners only). 1 previous career win also looks good (16/22) as does a last run on the flat turf (21/22) since those arriving from the AW are just 1-23.

The best stat may be that 13 of the previous winners last ran in a non-handicap race.

These types have a higher strike rate than those that last ran in a handicap. 

Interestingly, those that last competed in a maiden are 7-54 for £19.50 profit at Betfair SP. 11 previous winners were making their handicap debut and they have a higher strike rate than those with previous handicap experience. Something to bear in mind.

Here is our profile:

  • Rated 83 to 90
  • Raced in the last 40 days
  • 1 or 2 runs in the current season
  • Trained by Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute and Roger Charlton
  • Top 3 finish LTO
  • Raced over 1m 2f or further (preferably won over the distance too)
  • 2 to 5 career starts and at least 1 career win
  • Ran on the flat turf last time out
  • Last ran in a non-handicap race (especially a maiden)
  • Handicap debutants do very well

Nick will be using these key trends to help in his deliberations and read on to find out which of the runners will be carrying his hard earned cash.

London Gold Cup Handicap – Sat 18th Newbury 3.00pm

One from the Insiders Report and we have four qualifiers on the trends. They are Dubai Instinct, Sinjaari and Sky Defender. I think Sky Defender is interesting on his second go at this distance having improved a lot when upped to this trip last time. Clearly not the yard’s first string but he offers much better value than the other two. Sinjaari probably falls into the “could be anything” category and Dubai Instinct is also interesting in that his dam and dam’s sire were 6f sprinters but his sire is a French Derby winner and he won well over this trip last time. He would be the more speculative of the three.
Dubai Instinct @25/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 4 places)
Sinjaari 9/2@7/1
Sky Defender @14/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 4 places, WH)

Together We Can Win in 2019

Darren & Steve

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