The Weekend Bulletin (Sat 29th Feb)
After losing last weekend’s fixture at Newcastle the prospects for Saturday look more promising with decent looking cards at Newbury and Doncaster set to go ahead at the time of writing.
The former named Berkshire track is the topic of our Big Race Trends in the form of the MansionBet Proud To Sponsor British Racing Handicap Hurdle which is due off at 2.40pm. With 11 currently entered there are representatives from a number of the major yards such as Nicky Henderson (Elusive Belle 3/1 Fav), Paul Nicholls (Miranda 5/1 2nd fav, Cliffs Of Dover 10/1) and Phillip Hobbs (Le Ligerien 6/1).
The summary of the key trends detailed below formed part of the brand new Insiders Club Members Report which are published weekly and are an integral part of the comprehensive package on offer to Members – Join Here on our discounted trial
MansionBet Proud To Sponsor British Racing Handicap Hurdle (2 miles 69yd) – Newbury 2.40pm
We end February with a decent card at Newbury who play host to the annual race day to raise vital funds for a local charity, Greatwood. This was the first charity to use former racehorses to educate disadvantaged children and young adults with Special Educational Needs.
There are seven races scheduled on Saturday’s card and amongst them is the Class 3
0-140 Handicap Hurdle run over 2 miles and 69yd. We normally see anything from 8 to 15 runners lining up but even with small fields there have been some good value winners.
With that in mind, the last winning favourite was back in 2007 when Orcadian won at 3/1 for trainer James Eustace, and so for the past decade they have been worth taking on.
The race generally has quite an open feel to it and only Gary Moore (2005 and 2011) and Phillip Hobbs (last year, 2016 and 2003) have won this more than once in the last 20 years. Their runners are worth a look at the very least.
We have seen a trend towards the older horses in recent times with 13 of the last 15 winners aged 6yo to 8yo. From a ratings perspective we have 11 of the last 13 between an OR of 121 and 134, whilst 13 of the last 15 winners carried 10-10 or more.
A break of at least 21 days looks good and fits the bill for 10 of the last 13 winners.
All bar one of the winners have come from the top 6 in the betting, which is no real surprise, seeing as around 8 to 14 line up. However, it may just eliminate a couple as we look to narrow the field.
Interestingly you would have made a level stake profit blindly backing all those that had won their last time out race as 7 winners had achieved this from 35 that ran (20% Strike Rate).
Between 2 and 6 runs in the current season is a positive (18/21) and again may just eliminate one or two. Those with at least 2 previous hurdles wins have a better strike rate than those with 0 or 1 previous win. 15/21 had won a race that season, but 18/21 had won either 1 or 0 previous handicap hurdle races.
If we pull all those trends together, we are left looking at the following “Winners Profile”:
- Avoid the favourite
- Off the track for 21 days or longer
- Aged 6yo to 8yo
- Rated 121 to 134
- Carrying at least 10-10
- Top 6 in the betting
- Between 2 and 6 runs in the current season
- At least 2 previous hurdle wins
- No more than 1 previous handicap hurdle win
- Won a race in the current season, preferably lto
We will be reviewing the runners’ early doors raceday with regard to the above key trends and you can find out the final selection(s) below.
Sat 29th Feb
Unfortunately the eight-race card at Newbury on Saturday has been called off due to waterlogging, following heavy rain overnight.
Together we can win in 2020!
Darren & Steve
P.S. If you have the skill to select winners consistently and think you have what it takes to become a horse racing or sports tipster then this page is for you – Click here